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A brief overview of the recent developments on the Israeli-Lebanese contact line:
- Fire broke out at Shabaa Farms on the southern Lebanese border after Israeli army fired shells at Lebanon;
- Hezbollah announced the death of its member, Ali Kamel Moshen Jawad, who was killed in Syria by Israeli airstrikes;
- IDF decided to reinforce the Northern Command with select infantry forces;
- Fire broke out at Shebaa Farms on the southern Lebanese borders after Israeli army fired shells at Lebanon;
- An Israeli soldier died, when a military vehicle carrying diesel fuel overturned near the town of Ghajar in the vicinity of the Israeli-Lebanese border.
Hezbollah better keep their word, what happens after that is up to our government to give us a greenlight to turn Lebanon into a pile of rubble. We can spare the none-shias, but every shia village will be wiped out along with Hezbollah members and their families. You see my comment Issam and Rafik? you two shia Hezbollah bastards, we are coming for you.
So, it’s basically worth any number of Israeli civilian deaths to you to eliminate Hezbollah, right Iron Zion? Yes, yes… You’re going to prevent even a single one, blah blah blah. But in reality, you have admit that there will be some civilian cost for this to Israel, right? I mean, even the most chickenhawk politicians in Israel squawking for war with Hez will reluctantly admit that there will be some loss of Israeli civilians’ lives. It’s simply unavoidable in an all-out war, regardless of the power balance or who ‘wins’.
I know the IDF generals have war-gamed this out an endless number of ways and that the assumed number of Israeli civilian deaths in each scenario is ‘acceptable’ considering the expected outcome. But I assume they’re using ‘dozens’ or ‘hundreds’, not tens-of-thousands. I really don’t know. I’m just basing that on unsubstantiated claims in the past. Some Israeli civilians seem OK with that, but others are more like “F*ck it – whatever it takes!” I’m guessing you’re in that second camp, but you just expect the cost to be minimal. I’m not judging you – the U.S. has never been in that position (aside from an all-out nuke war). I can’t answer ‘how many U.S. civilians would I be willing to sacrifice’ because there’s nobody I despise that much that I would trade American lives to eliminate (my government, of course, feels… differently).
Well Pave, I estimate thousands of Israelis would die, maybe even up to 10,000 if they keep shooting 800-1000 rockets a day for the first week or two. After that when most of SL villages are under our control, they will be pushed back to the Litani river, which would make it harder for them to shoot their short ranged rockets. At the same time, all major Lebanese cities will be bombed to the ground, making the Lebanese death toll even worse especially the Dahya area in Beirut. I think we should avoid bombing the Christian / Sunni centers, the Lebanese Druze will side with Hezbollah I have no doubt so they will also feel our bombs on their heads. It is not that I under-estimate Hezbollah’s abilities, I know how much damage they can cause. BUT, don’t think for a second that they stand any chance in an all out war against Israel, where they will be outnumbered AND outgunned. UNIFIL will have a short time to leave, before the campaign starts. Everything i wrote is hypothetical at the moment, lets see if Hezbollah responds first (which I hope they would).
Thanks. I should add the context that prompted this question. It was posed to me regarding Taiwan. How many American lives would you sacrifice to defend Taiwan from China? My answer was zero, but my government doesn’t worry much about my opinion. I was just amazed at how many *other* Americans in the discussion insisted, “Whatever it takes” if it resulted in the destruction of China. Completely different situation on a lot of levels that Israel/Hez, of course. Not comparing the situations directly, just the price people seem to be willing to pay.
Yes Pave, sadly in a war like this where civilians on both sides will be bombed, the casualties will be very high. I think it’s a price we HAVE to pay, in order for our kids to grow up without a terrorist organization threatening to shoot rockets on them anytime they decide to. That means that in order to win the upcoming war, the shias in SL and all over Lebanon must be cleansed, or given a choice to leave Lebanon for good. As long as they exist, Hezbollah would still have power just like any guerilla organization. It may sound barbaric, but the 1M+ shias in Lebanon must be killed or that war will never end.
You grossly underestimate the number of Israeli civilian casualties in a war with Hezbollah. I know the Israelis will take cover in hardened shelters to minimize the death toll, but a lot will still die should Hezbollah decide to target civilians.
Secondly, If Hezbollah manages to cripple the Israeli air force by damaging logistics hubs like runways and control towers, Israel loses the air advantage that could give it troops an upper hand at the front-lines. Even short-land-and-take-off Israeli fighters will have a hard time dealing with a constant volley of incoming missiles.
Should the war be sustained for long, Israel will likely win in the end, but at a tremendous cost.
Besides, I don’t think Hezbollah will escalate the situation without Iran’s say so, and Iran seems not ready for this fight yet. The killing Soleimani has shown that Iran is unlikely to escalate unless directly attacked. And even if the U.S were to attack Iran, I kind of think there won’t be an all-out war like the Iranians threaten. The killing of Soleimani exposed the regimes vulnerability as it seeks to survive at all cost. Avoiding war is the best way the Iranian regime will survive, especially at a time like this.
So I don’t think Hezbollah will escalate. Or even if it does, it’ll seek to de-escalate to prevent a full-blown war that may lead to its destruction.
I am sure if Israel went to war with Hezbollah, the U.S will jump in. And Hezbollah is aware of that.
True Objective, it can be avoided if Hezbollah just accepts the death of their member that was in Syria in order to operate against us. Another question that came into my mind, what do you think about a Sunni-Israeli cooperation in order to remove Hezbollah and their other Shia puppets from Lebanon? do you think it can work from your Islamic view? after all we did help the FSA, so the deal can be that if we remove Hezbollah for good then Sunnis get to rule Lebanon (together with the Christians) in exchange for ending any hostile acts against us. How’s that sound to you?
Well, Sunni Islam has nothing against any tribe or race, and that includes the Jews. But Sunni Islam (which is the pure and majority) has always had problems with Shiism. Shiism is a 180-degree turn from what the prophet (s.a.w) thought Muslims. Shiism is not Islam. I won’t go into that because it is too lengthy and the problem has existed for over 1000 years. The Sunnis have had to grapple with the Shiites for over a thousand years. Israel only started having problems with Shiites not long ago.
Regarding your questions on cooperation between Sunnis and Jews, this can only happen if Israel treats the Muslims fairly in every way. We can have peace treaties, trade with one another, respect and protect each other’s right, and render assistance to one another. But as you can see, the Israeli leadership is not willing to give the Palestinian Muslims their due right. Even the U.N attests to that with many resolutions against Israel. And the U.N is not a Muslim organization, so we can’t say they are biased against Israel. This is the main reason Israel and Sunnis cannot cooperate.
With or without Israel’s cooperation, Sunnis will always oppose Shiites. We have fought uncountable battles against them for hundreds of years. And we mostly prevailed and subjugated them. But they will later re-group and grow in number. Today, we have the largest number of Shiites than at any time in history. And that means big trouble not only for the Muslim world but others, just like Israel is currently facing.
The Sunnis will not get involved in this tussle between Iran and Israel. You can see that from the fact that Sunnis did not mourn the death of Soleimani even in Iraq, except for a few. The reason America still has support in Iraq is for the Sunnis. Also note that the Shiites helped America during the invasion of both Afghanistan and Iraq. Although Saddam was an evil man, there were many true Sunnis in Iraq who suffered in that war.
Thanks Objective for an honest answer. Regarding the Sunni Palestinians, most of us (even me as a patriot Israeli) accepts a Palestinian state over most of the West Bank and Eastern Jerusalem. That is not the main issue, the real issue is Hamas who rules Gaza and doesn’t want to disarm in order for the PLO to take back control. In addition, we have a corrupted man in power who refuses for any deal in order to keep his seat, as long as there is a conflict then he can talk about it over the media rather than his trial and corruption. Both of them need to be removed, so a deal can be made. We do have peace deals with Jordan and Egypt, which proves Jews and Sunnis can co-exist together. Anyway, I’d prefer the Sunnis to rule Lebanon, maybe they can kick out Iran and turn that country into something better.
Blowback on israel. Israel made hamas to counter PLO and the israelis were just shocked to see that the people overwhelmingly chose Hamas over the plo. Now those headchoppers rule there. You israel ,caused this monster to be born. Just as you caused Iran to bein Syria more than ever and just as the US caused Iran to be in Iraq more than ever. Uncle Sam and Rabbi Smuel ducked it all up…
Maybe we did, but now we need to remove them. First Hamas, so we can sign a deal with the PLO. Second Hezbollah, so we can sign a deal with the Sunnis who will take over.
Oh dear Pussy_Zion deciding the order of battle. That will workout well.. First order of Battle is to get out the land you or your grandparents stole. That will solve all other problems,
Kicking out the Shiites from a place like Lebanon is not the best solution. Killing them as you tend to consider is an even worse approach. Islam strictly forbids genocide. The best solution will be to teach their people the true message of the Prophet (s.a.w). The problem is, the Muslim world suffers from inadequate scholars. The governments that were supposed to pioneer the teaching of Muslims around the world are busy fighting over power and wealth. There are signs that the situation is changing, but we probably still have a long way to go.
I don’t think re-educating them would work, but you can try who knows. Maybe Issam or Rafik can give their POV as Shias. I find Sunnis more reasonable than Shias, I don’t mean the extreme ones just the Sunni leaders that understand that we are here to stay (unlike the mullahs which believe they will destroy us, but it might happen to them sooner than they think).
If we can solve the Palestinian issue, everything will change. I blame both Bibi who is more than a decade in power (but will end up in jail for his corruption) and Hamas as a MB that isn’t ready for any compromises. They view Jihad as the only way, but so far it brings more suffering on them than us. I think the region is going into turmoil in the coming year, now even China has interets in the ME with the Iran deal.
The Iran-China deal isn’t likely to work out in the end. Iran wants this deal as a way to force China to protect the Iranian regime from the war they see coming. China is very careful to invest only in stable countries. The recent sabotage in Iran is not meant to stop or delay the Iranian nuclear program as people think. The sabotage is only sending message to China that their proposed investment of $400 billion in Iran will not be in the interest of China. You can see that the sabotage targets both nuclear and non-nuclear infrastructure in Iran.
China will delay implementation of the deal until it is sure Iran and the West have resolved their differences, like if another democrat takes office. At the same time, China will not cancel the deal for fear of angering Tehran and losing future lucrative deals in case a second JCPOA emerges that prevents any war or destabilization of Iran.
Well said, I agree 100%.
It was the Sunnis who fought Americans the most in iraq. Shiites wanted the us in. However like the germans in the ukraine the americans showed their true face and then the shiites rebelled. All these shiites pulling down saddam’s statue went on to kill natoists. the sunnis became isis and al nusra with americanozio help and then turned on them as well ,even if they did do americanozio’s dirty work to start with in Syria and libya .
Now the shiite iraqis want the us out as well.
You may be too young to remember how the iraq war both started and played out but i am not.
I know it was the Sunnis who fought America in Iraq. We are both saying the same thing. The Shiites backstabbed the Sunnis in Iraq and Afghanistan, and pretty much anywhere else. They are happy whenever a Sunni country is invaded, and they take advantage of Chaos to spread their poisonous beliefs.
The Sunnis in Iraq support America’s current presence because the Shiite-dominated politics of Iraq is a much bigger threat to their religion than America staying in Iraq. The biggest reason for this tussle is that Iran wants the U.S out of Iraq because it feels threatened. Iran took opportunity of the Chaos in Iraq to form the PMU as a buffer to America’s presence.
Shiites have historically backstabbed the Muslim world in an effort to spread their vile aqeeda. But when they are on the receiving end of trouble, they start talking about Muslim unity – as if Shiism is Islam. Even issuing false fatwa that cursing the Sahabas is forbidden.
No Sunni should get involved in the current U.S – Iran tussle cos it’s sure to end in perhaps the biggest fight in modern history.
Only the Mahdi will fully reconcile Muslims. So while the Shiites wait for him anxiously, it is our hope that they accept him when he emerges. Cos he is certain to rebuff their beliefs.
The Mahdi is more a Shia belief than a Sunni one and in any case there are many Sunni who believe the Mahdi is Issa /Jesus who will return . As a Christian ,That should be interesting to watch and i hope i am around to see it.
You are mistaken. There are more hadiths about the Mahdi in Sunni Scholarly work than in Shiism. Besides, the Shiite Mahdi isn’t the Mahdi Prophet (s.a.w) talked about. Visit the following sources for a clear and easy to understand explanation about the true Mahdi
ghayb.com
https://ghayb.com/2015/12/what-events-remain-before-the-mahdi-and-their-dates/
https://islamqa.info/en/answers/10301/the-emergence-of-the-mahdi
https://islamqa.info/en/answers/43840/the-truth-about-the-mahdi-and-the-order-in-which-the-portents-of-the-hour-will-appear
https://islamqa.info/en/answers/84269/does-the-mahdi-exist-at-present
Thank you , I will read it , but it may take a very long time before I get back to you , if at all.
You mean fake Muslims aka Wahhabis-Zionist cooperation.
Zionist create their own enemies. Zionists need enemies.
Reading your exchange with Paveway, a few observations/questions:
You said Lebanese Druze will side with Hezbollah and so ‘they will also feel our bombs on their heads.’ It is my understanding that Druze inhabit the Golan Heights and have not caused any problems. Would bombing Druze in Lebanon affect your relationship with the Golan Druze?
If how the Golan Druze would react is uncertain, would it be prudent to not specifically target Druze – especially civilians or even fighters if they are not posing a threat?
Since 2006 (14 years) there have been incidents, but no major hostilities. Is it your view Hezbollah intent is not to restrict themselves to only reacting to Israel (defensive posture as a deterrent) but is biding their time until they are strong enough to attack Israel (eliminate threat) and regarding your answer how is this known. By the way, I lean to likelihood of Hezbollah attack in future – see below.
Hezbollah in Syria is assisting in Assad reestablishing Syrian territorial integrity. Eventually, attention will turn to liberation of the Golan. The possibility is high that Iran and Hezbollah will stand with Assad in any plan to liberate the Golan – I give chance of diplomacy reaching agreement to hand Golan back to Syria to be ZERO.
This offensive will have Israel facing Iran, Syria and Hezbollah on a front that encompasses nearly 2/3 of the perimeter of the occupied Golan. I believe this scenario to be likely in near future.
You speak of Israel’s certain victory over Hezbollah – what about a scenario of three adversaries?
By the way, great exchange with Objective, gave me some new perspectives.
Hey Melanson.
Regarding the Druze, it is a known fact that Druze are loyal to their place of birth. Meaning, Lebanese Druze are loyal to Lebanon just as Israeli Druze are loyal to Israel. The Druze in the Golan see themselves as Syrians, so they won’t take a stand on Lebanon just like they didn’t do it in 2006.
Regarding the Iran/ Syrian / Hezbollah threat, we attack Iran in Syria exactly for that reason. We won’t allow them to open up another front on the Golan just like they did in Southern Lebanon. We know that if we don’t act, they will get stronger and eventually Hezbollah / Iran will try to attack us. We can win Hezbollah in a ground offensive, but with a big civilian casualaties on our side and theirs. However, I think it is best to do it now than in the futurre, when they get more precised rockets and maybe AD systems from Iran.
You already tried to turn Lebanon into a pile of rubble, and you were handed your asses back. Today, how many missiles can reach Tel Aviv? About 1,000? Perhaps more? Soon Tel Aviv will look like Beirut after the Zionist aggression. No longer asymmetrical warfare. Those days are gone. Its now ”an eye for an eye”. Shalom.
Exactly Mashi, an eye for an eye. But in our case, for every dead Israeli we will send a hundred shias to meet Allah.
Unlikely, its a soul for a soul. You think that only the Zionists have a nuke? Every resistance movement including those countries that Israel occupies and has a defensive missiles which will have the capacity to make Zionist pay a price tag for their aggression. Do you feel safe with your 200 nuclear weapons.They are a double edged sword. Its locations are known,ie, stored in the Dimona Nuclear Research Laboratory in the Negev. How many missiles are already pointed at it? At least a few thousand from Lebanon, Syria and Iran. One day even Hamas will have that capacity to blow up Dimona. In fact, it is Hamas who has the Samson Option.
They are Muslims, you Zionist.
The next Zionist aggression on Lebanon, Hezbollah can liberate the Shabba Farms, and hold it. Zionist will have to pay a heavy price if they want to steal it again. Soon all of Syria will be liberated from occupation.
Don’t count on it.
Well, you better do.
You’re scared. I can see your fear.
It’s not fear Icarus, it’s a motivation to end your terroristic friends for good.
It is you that is the terrorist, and we will end for good your terroristsic friends also known as Wahhabis for good.
Is it just me or there is too much hype around what it should be a measured answer to a punctual attack? In my opinion it shouldn’t escalate, neither Israel nor Hezbollah want that. Another would be the scenario had Israel targeted Hezbollah inside Lebanon. Or taken a bigger toll.
A Idf truck with fuel turn over? That was direct hiy by Hezbollah.