This map provides a general look at the military situation in the area of al-Bukamal and al-Qaim at the Syrian-Iraqi border. On November 3, Iraqi forces liberated the strategic city of al-Qaim from ISIS at the border with Syria. On the same day, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies liberated the city of Deir Ezzor and started redeploying forces for an advance on the ISIS-held city of al-Bukamal.
Both al-Qaim and al-Bukamal are located on the strategic Deir Ezzor-Baghdad highway. When Syrian government forces liberate al-Bukamal, they will establish a major supply line to the allied Iraqi forces. This supply line will become a part of wider ground supply network that already links Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
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great news indeed … the unity among neighbours forming a new formidable coalition against zio satanicterrorists/oppressors is getting transprent – the mahdi army will be borned – satanists worst nighmare – God is the best of all planners
#Syraq
#Syranq
Bibi’s worst nightmare is coming true.
Let’s see if SDF can magically teleport to Al Bukamal with the aid of ISIS defectors.
SDF can parachute in some new uniforms and shaving kits. WALA, it’s magic. :)
Yeah, just a change of uniform and a shave will do the trick.
Nice comment, but the SDF at the moment are irrelevant – keep an eye out for Israel.
dont give them any ideas!!!
PMU should advance into Syria on both side of the river and SAA should advance from north and west
Something doesn’t seem right about this operation. It’s a good thing when taken at face value, but some parts don’t make sense.
While Iraqi forces killed hundreds of ISIS in the current campaign and took back territory, they are also chasing thousands of ISIS into Syria and al Bukamal. For their part, the Syrian forces hardly need another prolonged battle in densely-populated, ISIS-friendly territory. It would have been far better for Iraqi forces to withhold the assault on al Qaim until Syria was ready to enter al Bukamal AND both sides had the al Qaim / al Bukamal area surrounded. There’s really only two ‘escape routes’ and you really don’t want head-choppers going to either one and melting into the population for their future phase of guerrilla-style terrorism.
Fist route the fleeing head-choppers have is to migrate north as al Qaim and al Bukamal fall. That’s either going to leave them in SDFistan up and down the east bank of the Euphrates (to carry out future terrorist attacks in Syria) or leave them in head-chopper-friendly central and west Anbar province (to carry out future terrorist attacks in Iraq). Syria is far more attractive because they can secretly extort a small fortune from the oilfields for ‘protection’ (no car bombs or sabotage) no matter who owns them.
The other escape route is southwest along the Iraqi-Syrian border. No telling where they would end up. There’s nothing for them and their families in Jordan besides the al Rukban death camps. I suppose they could dump their families there and find a SDF soldier job through US/SDF recruitment center just outside the camp. Nothing good will come of that. International aid agencies should have evacuated everyone from that miserable, isolated concentration camp years ago. Only a psychopath would think it’s OK to let them rot there without transportation and just give them enough food and water to survive. They don’ t need more aid, for Christ’s sake, they need to be moved out of the f%#iking middle of the desert.
The ‘escape route’ idea is great unless you’re letting them escape to somewhere you’ll never find them again. Syria and Iraq will suffer years of terrorism from the sleeper cells left behind as it is. At some point, you have to end the war by capturing or killing the most die-hard of head-choppers you trapped somewhere. You don’t just keep letting them escape to somewhere else in your country until you can’t find large groups of them anymore. You’ve only succeeded in chasing them underground.
It would be better to kill them all, the whole lot. Thing is though, the US is gunning for Al Bukamal as well, so the race is to get there first before the Kurds show up. If that means that many ISIS members will escape to cause problems later, I guess that is the price that has to be paid. In a perfect world you could finish off the escaping ISIS rats AND capture Al Bukamal. In a perfect world the SAA could also have captured the Omar oil fields. We don’t live in a perfect world. Choices have to be made. Hard choices.
Putin has acknowledged as much “It is better to kill them there than here”. There is no race for. Please see my comment to Pave Way IV above.
Imo neither SDF nor US is gunning for Al Bukamal.
It would be both a strategic and tactical mistake for the SDF to try this. Why would they try to create a bridgehead in the west side of the river at Al Bukamal as the bridge there is not functional, they likely do not have the pontoon bridging elements and with small boats they can only logistically support a very small bridgehead that is essentially unsustainable, like the SAA found out when they tried it near Mayadin and failed.
Why would they do it? Same reason they crossed the Euphrates to capture Tayba and its airbase, using US choppers, and which the US now wants to use. Because its what the US wants them to do. And the US also occupies Al Tanf, cutting off the Baghdad-Damascus highway. The US clearly doesn’t want a good land connection between Iraq and Syria to prevent the Shia crescent from happening. And whatever the US wants, the SDF seems willing to do. Dance, little puppet, dance!
For the SDF Tabqah had practical uses : get a foothold on the west bank and eventually close off Raqqah on the west bank, get hold of the powerstations there, get control of the flow of the waters from the lake and dam, block off the advance of SAA advancing on the west bank of the river direction Raqqah etc.
For the SDF Al Bukamal has no real value if and when they cannot make a sustainable bridgehead and in the present situation, they cannot forge a sustainable bridgehead.
While US might want to control the Syrian Iraqi border through a proxy force, the present situation prevents it and the SDF is smart enough not to force an unnecessary confrontation with the SAA unless they they have pledged support by the US. So, imo, if the SDF crosses the Euphrates another time, they have pledged support of the US, not only for the crossing, but for their whole project.
on the other hand, saa pushed some jihadists to SDF
https://southfront.org/600-civilians-unknown-number-of-isis-members-withdraw-from-deir-ezzors-hawijat-kati-to-sdf-held-area/
Good, let them lose time dealing with some smelly ISIS families and feeding them.
You have to coral cattle before you lead them to slaughter, that should indicate that SDF will be in the same cauldron in unison as well to the slaughter.
Nicely said but a bit unrealistic.
Firstly, the cauldron, as you call it, has been increasing in size and is not, realistically, a cauldron anymore.
Secondly, it presupposes the US will abandon the SDF. Given the example of KRG, some would conclude that. Imo the analogy will not work for SDF as firstly Iraq was an ally of US and Assad is most certainly not. Secondly, the bond between US and SDF is stronger because of more close cooperation, thirdly, partly because of the KRG, there is now more support in US politics to disallow this to happen again and lastly, the KRG was internally divided in two equal parts and the SDF is not.
Lastly, Iraq had a large economic sway over KRG as soon as they got support from Iran and Turkey. As this is not the case at all in Syria, there is now way Turkey and Iran can put economic pressure on Northern Syria. Iraq might for a very little bit but smuggling will be easy in that corrupt country.
The US has tried to legitimize their presence in Syria as a fight against ISIS, this is a matter of days now or at least by the end of the month. The US will not have any reason and will be asked to remove itself from Syria. A no fly zone will be enforced over the nation and PKK will be attacked by all forces of the Syrian coalition.
Iran has announced that SAA (coalition) will march on Raqqa and liberate it very soon as the dam above it as well. Syria will regain its resources and although weakened by the war against it by proxies will recover and is even stronger militarily by the new ME that is evolving.
As for “the cauldron, as you call it, has been increasing in size and is not, realistically, a cauldron anymore” is to deny reality on the ground. It is indeed evolving as two cauldrons as I have described in reply to Pave Way IV. Check the map frequently, it will become clear to all.
I will refer you to a couple of articles that lays out current events not being covered in large by Southfront in detail.
Lebanon – Hariri’s Resignation – The Opening Shot Of The Saudi War On Hizbullah
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/11/lebanon-hariris-resignation-the-opening-shot-of-the-saudi-war-on-hizbullah.html#more
Saudi Arabia – This ‘Night Of The Long Knives’ Is A Panic-Fueled Move
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/11/saudi-purge.html#more
While I read other collumms, you might like to see Al Monitor and others, I do concurr that KSA is changing, or starting to. Contrary to your thinking, it seems to me that this might give the SDF an extra opportunity.
Some say KSA wants Israel to go for Hezbollah. If it does, I am dubious about that, it would mean Hezbollah withdrawing its forces from most of Syria, very much weakening the 10k forces they have in the Syrian Badiya. It might even mean KSA forces, or supplies, going to SDF. It might also mean KSA going for an independent Anbar and Niniveh region for the related sunni arabs living there (the Shammar are both very important in Anbar/Mosul region and in northern KSA)
KSA getting rid of corruption, getting rid of some internal opposition from the “old guard” only strengthens the country. Getting rid of the most repulsive parts of their brand of Islam might create some turmoil internally, but might also strengthen their support among parts of the general population.
Wrong, Russia aerospace force can handle any terrorists number ! It is good for Iraq to occupy Al-Qaim.
Some time back I could see 2 cauldrons (pincer movements) being formed after securing major cities forming two main killing fields. Remember Putin’s proclamation “It is better to kill them there than here”.
Consult the map/s and notice the two being formed, Asukhnak North via M20 to Dier Ezzor and North through Al Hasakah via M7 (separating continuous Kurdish territory control and securing the border controls). Completing both seperate cauldrons (killing fields) look East via M4 through to Qaim.
Despite the criticism of Russia and the Syrian coalition (which includes Iraq/PMU) over the last couple of months, things appear to be advancing according to this reality and there should be no worries about the SDF and the oil field north of the Euphrates River by this coalition’s movements and execution or what some have referred to as lack of movement/s.
I could see that happening, but so can the head-choppers. Doubt if they still exist much as organized units that could be herded into cauldrons. For the units that are still intact, this would work. But it seems to me like this is the “You’re on your own for now. Bury your weapons and ammo, shave and blend in to the local / refugee population” phase.
The locals in al Bukamal and al Qaim are more sympathetic to the head-choppers than opposed to them. Few would risk pointing them out to the SAA, and the SAA does not have the manpower for door-kicking to sift through a quarter-million locals/refugees in and around the al Bukamal – al Qaim corridor.
I’ll be watching how easy or difficult it will be for the SAA and allies to take al Bukamal. Al Qaim was way too easy – sounds like ISIS had a few teenagers putting up a token defense. If there is little resistance in al Bukamal and no convoys flee the area, then ISIS has already melted into the local population. They’ve probably been doing this since Raqqa fell.
i loveeeeeeeee ittt
It is clear that the SAA, without all the foreign mercenaries does not amount to much and would have lost the civil war, wich at this time, at least on the side of the SAA, is an international war, not a civil war amymore.
Reading carefully, the advance of the so called SAA in the East and the Badya is not an advance of the SAA at all. It is an advance of foreign legions of Hezbollah, Iranians and Iraqis, all more or less disguised as SAA. Around Al Bukamal they cannot disguise this anymore as there are no SAA at all present there. SAA has a few able forces, like the Tigers, and the rest is shit.
How independent is Syria when the regime can only survive when and as long as its “allies”, bosses more correctly, will support him?
well in the beginning there was an outbreak of civil war…..millions of syrians left the country. the syrian army had little manpower (deserters,noone enlisted ) almost no equipment since it was stolen by ‘moderate opposition’ etc……then came the worst….isis with 1000s of international terrorists joining the fight against Syria. Other groups like fsa enlisted arab mercs as well that were trained by terrorist friendly countries…..well it turned out to be an international side of butchers against a minimal amount of the Syrian armed forces. So the allies joined in for SYria. to balance things……Iran, Russia. sounds fair to me.
I agree to all except for the civil war description (internal war) it was no more internal than Libya’s attack by outside forces and only succeed in chaos as the national goverment was beheaded. Tribal differences were divided and conquered as in the common scenario of Empire’s pillage and plunder.
On the issue of comparison I will add one note here. “The international side of butchers against a minimal amount of the Syrian (Sovereign Nation) armed forces”, were proxies (useful idiots) for denying the real naming of the true supporters and sponsors publicly. So the allies joined in for Syria to balance things……Iran, Russia. sounds fair to me”. That coalition openly declares its support and participation as sovereign nations whose Treasure, Commons and Inalienable Rights are at stake in this battle of “Sinners and Saints” metaphorically as well as Syrian.
100000% totally agree
A mathematical wizzard it seems.
thanks for noticing…..you mean mathematical genius….
Why the butt-hurt when the jihadis are being defeated? Seriously?
Why the butt-hurt when the jihadis are being defeated?
It’s quite curious.
They need to forget about the town for now and occupy as much they can of the eastern bank of The Euphrates. Work on limiting the land seizure by the kurds and leave the kurds to the incoming nearby Syrian Armies.
Old war again from before USA and Isral was invented. Turks- kurds = same thing. Lausanne here we comes and Mosul treat as well.
Yuppie Ya Yeh Father Traucker driven by free Syrian pil full of sukohur and asphalt.