Military Overview: Unexpected Direction Of Ukrainian Offensive In Kherson

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The Ukrainian military has admitted its defeat and is already building defensive lines in the south of the country. However, despite the heavy losses, Kiev does refuses any negotiations with Moscow and continues the war, in which the Ukrainian army loses hundreds of soldiers wounded and killed every day.

While Ukrainian units are retreating in almost all directions of Donbass and in the Zaporozhye region, Kiev retains hope to achieve at least some success in the Kherson region. It is already obvious that the plans of the Ukrainian command to cut off the Russian group on the eastern bank of the Dnieper and reach the Crimean peninsula are not destined to come true.

After the Kakhovka dam was blown up in June 2023, the Ukrainian military deprived the Russians of control over the water level in the Dnieper downstream. Simultaneously with the beginning of the Kiev offensive in the Zaporozhye region, the Ukrainian command was already preparing to launch the second front – an offensive across the Dnieper. The Ukrainian military, in boats kindly provided by their NATO patrons, were supposed to land on the eastern shore and easily distract and finish off Russian units “fleeing from the rapidly advancing Ukrainians from the north.” However, this never happened.

The counteroffensive ended in a complete failure of the Ukrainian army and the vaunted Western equipment; but Kiev does not count losses and continues bloody attempts to achieve at least some victories in the Kherson region. It should not be in vain that the Kakhovka dam was destroyed, and the disaster killed dozens of people, destroyed hundreds of hectares of fertile land. It should not be for nothing that the British so diligently trained Ukrainian soldiers to cross water barriers and looked for boats to arm the obsolete Ukrainian army. It should not be for nothing that hundreds of Ukrainians died in numerous attempts to gain a foothold on the eastern shore.

That’s why today the Ukrainian military continues operations in the Kherson region, the results of which are so far measured only in growing losses, and not in captured kilometers of territory.

Today, Ukrainian forces are present in a small area in the area of Dachas under the Antonovsky road bridge, as well as in the area of the railway bridge near the small village of Poyma.

On the right bank, the AFU have concentrated artillery, intelligence units and Special Operations Forces, as well as mobile groups of UAV operators and mortar launchers that go for operations to the islands.

In the area of the Antonovsky Bridge, there is the 194 Separate Battalion of the 124th Territorial Defense Brigade operating on both banks. The area of Kosachie Laheri is the area of responsibility of the Shaman Battalion of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry if Defense, 187th Separate Battalion of the 123rd Separate Brigade of Territorial Defense, 126th Battalion of the 221st Brigade of Territorial Defense.

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However, Ukrainian forces deployed to these areas could not develop any success and were suffered heavy losses from Russian fire. Since mid-October, the Ukrainian command has concentrated its main efforts to hold and expand the bridgehead north of the river in Krynki.

Today, Ukrainian forces maintain control of the central part of the village, but they still cannot expand the control zone under constant attacks by Russian artillery, drones and aviation.

According to Russian intelligence, a large number of Ukrainian units are concentrated in the Krynki area. They include the 13th Separate Battalion of the National Guard of Ukraine, 36 Marine Brigade, 126 Battalion of the 245^th Brigade of the Territorial Defense, elite units of the 35th and 38th Marine Brigades, as well as the 503rd Separate Battalion of Marines of the AFU and 164th Separate Radio Engineering Brigade. On December 4, Ukrainian command transferred units of the 37th Marine Brigade to the Kherson region. LINK

The Ukrainian command is sending separate companies to the eastern bank, which operate in the area from the settlement to the river. Despite the constant losses, the Ukrainian military command is constantly replenishing manpower on the Russian bank.

The Russian 104th Airborne Division maintains positions in the outskirts of Krynki and continues destroying the Ukrainian grouping in the village and during its rotation attempts.

Ukrainian groups are regularly crossing the Dnieper River at night by boats, while Russians hunt them. The boats are most vulnerable at the time of landing on the eastern shore, when they are most often targeted by Russian strikes.

According to reports from the front, another rotation was disrupted on the night of December 9. 6 Ukrainian boats were destroyed, and 5 more were damaged. The Russian military confirmed deaths of at least 15 Ukrainian servicemen, and 40 more were reportedly wounded. Russian fire also destroyed the transported ammunition and provisions. The Ukrainian groups on 7 more boats reportedly refused to sail on rotation to the Russian bank.

Russian aircraft also continue pounding Ukrainian positions on both banks of the river with heavy bombs. The Ukrainian military is trying to secure the region with a network of an air defense system to reduce the damage from the Russian advantage in the sky, but it remains quite vulnerable. For example, on December 6, Russian Lancet destroyed another Ukrainian electronic warfare system 45km from the Dnieper on the western bank.

On the other hand, Russian offensive operations in Krynki are hampered by the dominance of Ukrainian artillery fire from the higher western bank, mining of the territory and massive strikes by Ukrainian drones. The Ukrainian Air Force is also trying to use the remaining helicopters to strike Russian positions with uncorrected bombs, which often leads to losses in Ukrainian aircraft. LINK

The situation on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River remains difficult for both sides. The main tactical goal of the ongoing Ukrainian operations in these areas is to connect three bridgeheads from the Antonovsky Bridge to Krynki. Expanding their control zone would allow the AFU to take control of the road and gain a firm foothold on the eastern bank, forcing the Russian forces to retreat to a considerable distance in the steppes. However, the Ukrainian army needs much larger forces to expand its operations.

Some experts admit that the Ukrainian operations in the Krynki area are aimed distract the Russian military, while the AFU are preparing an offensive in the south, from the area of the port of Ochakov. The Ukrainian army is accumulating significant reserves in the area and regularly conducts night reconnaissance sorties in the area of the Kinburskaya Spit.

It seems that the main goal of Ukrainian operations may be to advance towards Skadovsk, cut strategically important roads and gain a foothold along the Karkinit Bay between the mainland and the northwestern coast of Crimea. The strategic goal is the same, to cut off the Crimean Peninsula.

The command of the AFU keep large forces near their footholds in Krynki and near bridges but the Ukrainian military command does not use them. Operations are carried out by small groups. The presence of large Ukrainian grouping on the western bank forces the Russian military to also hold large reserves in this area; while the main threat of possible Ukrainian offensive comes from the Ochakov direction.

Russian military experts note that in the case of Ukrainian activation in the Dnieper delta, the AFU may likely launch diversionary strikes from Ochakov in the area of Kinburnskaya Spit, Pokrovsky, Dneprovsky, Geroysky in order to contain Russian forces. The Ukrainian military is already conducting regular reconnaissance operations along the coast in the river delta with active support of NATO intelligence in the Black Sea.

Russian experts admit that the main direction of possible Ukrainian attack by assault groups of the Main Intelligence Directorate and the “South” operational center of the Special Operations Forces may be the Tendrov Spit, as well as islands northwest of the Kinburnskaya Spit for a subsequent attack on the Geroyskoye-Zabarino road.

If the AFU follow this scenario, they can achieve a deeper advance on the eastern bank and improve their positions for attacks on the western part of the Crimean peninsula and supply roads of the Russian grouping in the Kherson and Zaporozhie regions. However, the Ukrainian military has yet to achieve at least some success in the south of the country.

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