Map Update: Military Situation In Southern Syria Following Liberation Of Lajat District

I’m sure that SAA has all the inside information who are allies of HTS and that they act acordingly

They are well aware and also they need to have humanitarian corridors like East Ghouta this way to reduce the number of Syrians being held hostage by the West in these so called refugees camps run by MOSSAD groups like AFAD, etc.

If all Syria all is liberated
They MUST leave because Astana agreement with Russia and Iran gives them that obligation to leave.
If not they might have to face Syrian SAA + Kurds and Syrian airplanes also while Russia will shoot down their airplanes if they come near!

After Turks leave SAA can go to liberate Golan !

hope you´re right

OK
you tell me how Turks can fight SAA and Kurds + Syrian aviation + local population that is against them?
And they can’t use their airplanes because of Russia.

Of course that will happen only when Assad and Kurds reach agreement first.

It depends entirely whether Turks go on the offensive on behalf of its headchopper proxies to acquire more territory or if they simply repel SAA advances into Idlib, Afrin, and Northern Aleppo. In the first scenario, the Turks will most certainly get their ass handed to them. In the latter situation, it depends a lot upon how committed the Russians and Iranians are to any SAA offensive to liberate TFSA occupied territories.

Of course without US support, the Turks would get completely annihilated and forcefully kicked out.

Again, a lot of this stuff is hard to tell. It is very difficult to figure out what true Turkish motivations are. Hence the age old adage of “NEVER trust a Turk”. Every Turk I have ever met in my personal life turned out to be a serial liar, manipulator, and pompous opportunist. It is almost as if it’s deeply ingrained in their culture.

NEVER trust a Turk!

“NEVER trust a Turk!”

Politics has never anything to do with “trust”.
Russians and Iranians are committed to the agreement I am sure.
And they are committed to force Turkey to respect the agreement.
And that means that Turkey presence in Syria is only temporary.
If Turks refuse to go back and become occupying force .
Than Russia would block the sky for Turk aviation to fly over the Syria.
That would be end of Turkish occupation very soon
Even with support of their “headchopper proxies ” they would not be able to resist SAA and Kurd’s and Syrian aviation.

Of course politics has a lot of do with trust. The only reason any 2 or more geopolitical entities ever get into any diplomatic agreements is because there exists some degree of confidence that the opposing sides will abide by whatever agreement or consensus is reached. If there’s absolutely zero trust, then there exists no diplomacy. It is all a matter of degree.

I am unaware of any commitment by the Iranians or the Russians to “force” Turkey to respect the agreement, and I am also unaware of any portion of the agreement that stipulates that TFSA held areas are to be turned over to the SAA.

If you can show me these 2 things, I’d greatly appreciate it.

Otherwise, the only thing I can say to your statement is “I hope you’re right”, which doesn’t amount to much.

I doubt Russia would interfere directly with Turkey and Assad with his allies battle directly. It will be another things if the US is on tow with their coalition but Turkey on it’s own weren’t a good engagement target for them with their guidelines in place. Perhaps if Turkey directly bombing the largely recovering areas of Damascus and Aleppo they can go with it anything else less than that is against their policy.
Anyway if the Russia would support such initiative against Turkey it should be in procurement of more pantsir system or other mobile medium range AD units.
The simplest and cheapest solution still to procured the Syrian Air Forces with new multirole warplanes but such assets will enable Syrian with new kinds of initiative capability to mount attack as well flexibility to engage hostile warplanes.

Astana has nothing to do with Assad. That was only agreement between Russia,Turkey and Iran. So if they would breach that agreement that would make direct consequences for Turkey.
As for Russian non flying zone, it still exists.
Except they have tolerated Turk aviation during their bombing of the Kurds.
That doesn’t mean that they will aloud Turks to repeat that again ..
If situation changes and if they do not keep their part of the agreement Russia might block them to cross the Syrian border.

“The simplest and cheapest solution still to procured the Syrian Air Forces with new multirole warplanes”
Since when are “multirole warplanes” so “cheap”?!
You mean something like new MIG-29’s like those Egypt has bought?
I don’t think that will happen . They didn’t give S-300 to Syria because of range that was too big… on Israel’s demand.
But that was suppose to be a GIFT.

“Perhaps if Turkey directly bombing the largely recovering areas of Damascus ”
If Turks don’t respect Astana agreement and refuse to leave they will have to confront SAA
So I do not see how would Russia permit Turks to send their F-16 airplanes to bomb SAA ?!?
I do not think that Russians would permit that because Turkey would become occupying force and aggressor.
I agree that another possibility is to give SAA more BUK M2 (they alredy have 90 Pantsir S1)

The

OK
I agree and I get you point
Maybe only that unlike Pantsir short range BUK M2 medium range are not “vulnerable” because they are outside of reach of any artillery and reconnaissance units.
Because they can protect front lines from distance.
The problem is who is going to pay all that extra for AD and
multi-role airplanes?

I still don’t have clue where is Assad finding money for all extra equipment he is getting from Russia
And how is he feeding his army and people
If that is some arrangement with Russians there must be limits to all that.
Russia is not US they can’t afford to make expensive gifts like that.
All their presence in Syria is already expensive
Because all those killed and wounded and all those salaries plus all other expenses like bombs and stuff they have to pay do not come cheap….

Well this is Russia security interest in the balance here so it’s quite puzzling with it’s halfhearted efforts. They have signaling that they ‘may’ supply S300 which means it’s not beyond their limit. A lot of their inventory of old model too were just fine. Just fly it to Iran with technical support if it necessary to be repaired if they don’t want to spent materials for it.
In my opinion the war effort weren’t sufficient simply because political pressure both international and internal.

A lot of their inventory of old model too were just fine.

No “old model” won’t do…
It has to be S-300PMU2 (upgraded S-300 that Russia still uses ) simply because of its capability to integrate in real time radar network with all other modern systems like Rusian S-400, S-300V4, BUK M2E and Pantsir Russian and Syrian and AWACS also.
Because Israel has now F-35 and old system would not be able to resist coordinated attack from the distance
Yes Russia has S-300P (old S-300) that can’t be upgraded in reserve
Those Soviet systems are not broken. They are just too old for upgrades on modern Russian standard.

I doubt that Rusia doesn’t take seriously
Or that they do all with”halfhearted efforts”.
They don’t make publicity about help they make because it is military secret.
That F-16 that was shoot down and all those cruise missiles…
That was not because Syrians were lucky but because Russians have modernized old Syrian AAD equipment to the maximum

Old decommissioned warplanes i mean.
As for halfhearted yes perhaps I’m the pessimistic one but just for the record they stepped back from their statement for providing Syria with much needed S300. Without them their pantsir units will remains only in coverage of radar base in Damascus and Russian base. Eastward deployment were trickier.

“they stepped back from their statement for providing Syria with much needed ”

Well you belong to quite big group of people. If wee look things rationally there is logic to it.
The point is that S-300PMU2 is overkill because Israel is tiny country Range would not go over Lebanon only but Israel as well (and their air bases) which would probably start the war with Israel also(that Russia doesn’t want really – not that way at least)
Much better purpose would have more BUK M2 but even for that it seams that Russia doesn’t see them to be necessary (I don’t know why I’m not military expert and don’t know all the secrets they know)

Maybe they just try to deescalate that war or for some other reason that they keep for themselves.
I’m pro-Russian and I’m confident that they have the best intentions.
So I don’t question everything and don’t pretend to know all the reasons for Russian decisions.
Many things are happening behind that main stage of war that we don’t know.
Russia has invested quite lot in Syria and I believe that they are trying to assure victory there without starting WW3

What they needed weren’t the launcher or the missiles. It’s the radar they needed. If they could deploy them more to the eastward to cover the northeast offensive then Pantsir system should barely sufficient for their air cover as it increase their reaction and kill radius.

I absolutely agree with this. Issue is how will Syrian State pay for everything once the War moves towards NE and N Syria and confrontation with Kurds / OttoTurks / US Forces in the event that Syria decides that it needs additional Aircraft and BUK2 or Pantsir. For the moment I suspect that everything is being paid for through Russia and/or Iran ‘cos I believe Syrian State coffers are empty. I believe the deal is that Russia and Syria will share Royalties from Oil in NE Syria into the future with Syria probably foregoing Lease/Rental payments that would fall due on any Pipeline crossing Syrian Territory on its way to the Mediterranean and onwards to mainland Europe transporting Iranian Gas AND probably also Gas from Gulf to Europe

Turks can and will ignore any agreements.

Saa couldnt and wouldnt liberate golan before 2011 and wont try now.

If Turks ignore agreements there will be consequences.
Russia might close the sky for any Turkish airplane and SAA and Kurds helped with Syrian aviation will kick them out.
As for Golan I do not know.
It is up to Assad to decide
I personally hope that after all Syria is liberated he will at least try to liberate Golan.

Through 7 years of watching Israeli infiltration into Syria, Bombing of Syria and the granting of R ‘n R facilities to Jihadists across the Border in Israel together with Field Hospitals and Communications facilities, the Syrian Arab Army has become a battle-hardened Army that will not be defeated in any circumstances. Meanwhile, Israelis continue to depend on their conscripted Army that has seen no experience of battle and never been under fire with their sole experience being sniper-murder at the Gaza ‘Not-a-Border’ Fence in response to unarmed resistance. If anyone really believes that this Syria and its Armed Forces will refrain from taking back the Golan simply because it might be regarded as impolite, they need their heads examined. First and foremost is the reclaiming of everything up to the U.N. Lines on East side of Golan and then sitting tight while Eastern Syria and Province of Idlib together with Turkmen enclave in NW Syria and North of Aleppo are reclaimed from Americans and latter-day Ottoman-Nazis. Once the Americans and OttoNazis are expelled from Syria, Syrian Armed Forces have all the time in the world within which to reclaim the Golan ……. and they will !!

I too doubt israeli military efficiency but not enough to see a devastated syria defeat it never mind turkey and the us.

Their best bet is too dig in and follow the russian strategy which has worked thus far.

Hezbollah and iran would with draw to defend their own territories in a major war.

Syria relied on the useless resolutions against Israel which has all been ignored with the blessings of the US. The UN is poorly managed and UNSC 5 which should all be replaced with non permanent members and expanded to 60 not 30 in junior council and only to those countries who provide UN Peacekeeping forces.

Im not sure the un has a place at all. I dont think any global organization really helps the people of this world.

True on that score even WFP and all UN humanitarian organizations suck choo choo trains!!

Erdogan and Assad both are now united. I cannot tell you more here because its not good for Turkey.

No, Erdogan and Assad are not united. Both may be opposition to Israel, but they also hate each other. Erdogan is not only interested in helping Palestinians, he is interested in annexing and ultimately restoring an Ottoman empire, against the wishes of Iraqis, Iranians, Syrians, and Lebanese among others.

United they can stand but divided they will fall. Erdogan making all countries united that is a good news for me but the division of any country is a bad news for me.

The division and then rule on them is the conspiracy projects of US, Europe and Israel. I wish that whole Middle East become one country.

Yeah, and Erdogan isn’t working to “unite”. He is working to divide, destabilize and imperialise other countries. If he was truly unite people, he would be working with the Syrians, Iranians, and Hezbollah, not supplying Wahhabi and Takfiri terrorist groups and negotiating on behalf of Wahhabi/Takfiri terrorist groups in Astana. Just because Erdogan talks nicely of Palestinians or has disagreements with the US doesn’t mean he is a friend of the Syrian people or Assad.

The Middle East will never “peacefully” become one country as a result of any referendum. There are major differences amongst the diaspora of people in the region and most would absolutely resent your “wish”. Turkish imperialism is not different from Western imperialism. It’s imperialism and conquest no matter how you split it, and people do not like large conglomerates and power structures dictating to them how they should live. More autonomy and self rule is the inevitable course of the future, around the world, not just in the middle east.

I know one day entire Middle East will become a one powerful country then nobody will dare to attack them.

This is pure fantasy, not knowledge.

I think defections to the SAA will accelerate, especially given US statement that basically throws them all under a bus. The timing of the US statement is most interesting, as if US wants the defections to happen.

Oh its poor old Solomon Kupachek there is it?

Sure is!

And then can Sy take back Golan. After 55 ys.

Golan Heights is a minor subject to the world, Assad was not planning to take it back before the syrian war, so why should it rush now when it has many parts of the country still under the control of zionist proxy terrorist forces like the Kurds and FSA?

Golan Heights and Palestine wil both return to their rightful owners in due time. And it won’t take 55 years.

The end of the dollar is the end of Israel, ZOG won’t be able to sustain itself without the financial support of USA, and then its miltary forces will degrade very fast while it is surrounded by enemies… Israel only will be finding another host to leech.

Israel will still have hundreds of ICBM armed nukes. Which is more then North Korea has, and even that limited arsenal was enough to stave off US invasion. Without US support the Israeli economy will go downhill, and its armed forces will degrade, but no country in the Middle East, not even Iran, will let itself become nuked just to take out Israel.

Unless a miracle happens that handwaves away Israel’s nuclear arsenal these guys will be here to stay. Anything else is just daydreaming.

Yes, that is why I say the end of Israel is due to political/economical reasons, it may have more nukes than DPRK, but it also has a worse regional reality not being an ally to anyone in the region, it is like a cancerous tumor stuck in the middle east.

Imagine that, when USA is not able to print fake money to support Israel, the israeli will have a tiny country hated by everyone around it, there is no way they could generate the type of economy to sustain the warmachine they have now.

DPRK has borders with China and Russia, a better territory and far more laborious people, and they still suffer from UNSC and USA sanctions, for Israel it will be far worse than it is for the koreans, a first they will rely on the nukes, but the country will only decay and decay, and with almost every israeli having dual citizenship they will end up jumping off the sinking vessel and going to places where they will have better chances to steal.

Nukes are very expensive and they have an expiration date.

The North Korean economy is utter shite though, as communist economies don’t work even under the best of circumstances. So a poor economy, sanctions, famine brought about because of communist farming, also a massive failure, a massive secret police state to keep the masses and elite in order, despite all that North Korea still manages to build up and maintain its significantly smaller nuclear arsenal.

In contrast Israel has a fairly effective market economy, not weighed down by ideological dogma, smart educated people. The loss of American subsidies will hurt them, and force them to downsize their army, but they didn’t enjoy those subsidies in the 50’s and 60’s, when the IDF was mostly fielding British and French tanks and aircraft. They can be resourceful when they have to be. Overall the Israeli economy would probably remain large enough to still field a sizable army and its nuclear arsenal. Which, as North Korea has shown, if they really wanted too with a failing economy they could still maintain. And I think they would because they know damn well that that nuclear deterrent is absolutely critical for Israel’s survival.

It’s funny how they can manage conquering food shortages and continue to grow a future and strong economy , South Korea should look carefully into making strong binding peace agreement. The debt on the South is crazy and getting out of control with being forced to by such crap and garbage from the US and west.

Israel is in so much massive debt and with no means to make anything better without hundreds of billions in Foreign aid yearly and even more billions in military aid. Israel KSA plus some gulf states and the US along with the UK are standing in the way of economic progress. Time for these pyramid schemers to go the way of the dinosaur.

Am I getting this right? North Korea a strong economy? They have no economy. The country survives because its government has total control over its population. It can and will let them starve, as long as the missiles will fly and the nukes will work. It’s a slave labor economy in the world’s biggest slave labor camp. But now that Kim has what he wants, working nuclear armed ICBM’s, he can afford to relax and throw his people a boon by improving relations with the outside world again.

They just have no outside trade with the West like Afghanistan untold mineral wealth.

Most are antiquated junk and will soon run their expiry date and it’s just unicorns farting skittles with their rainbow fairy tale of Samson protocol.

I doubt that. No country with a nuclear weapons program has EVER let its nukes get obsolete. Not even Russia during the worst days under Yeltsin. They know what matters. Tanks may rust, jets may fall apart on the tarmac, but nukes are the real power, and they will be kept working.

That’s funny the US has done it nothing new there cost more to maintain than build them.

Sooner

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7dd2ed4e1504ac7edfaf5a2f3abb1439d86faa18c200080f1d39637eb78eed3d.jpg

This is very doubtful as certain ‘trade’ is conducted and the demise of KSA and the oil rich middle east states inheritance system will have to occur before Israel dissipates.. and this is not the diamond trade..

You’ll be saying the same exact thing 55 years from now and/or on your deathbed.

The clock always ticks, and with every second that passes, I’m right and you’re wrong.

No countries survives surrounded by enemies on every border. Israel can indeed survive if you, like I said, find another host to parasite, or perhaps if you start behaving like a civilized nation and accept 67 borders, giver back the land stolen from palestine, asn start engaging in a profound diplomatic effort with your neighbors to stop the cycle of hatred.

Let’s hope your people at last is able to see the light… but of course, judging by your historic you will keep being aggressive and unhuman.

I would say there is a realistic chance that the 67 borders will ultimately be the accepted and many various Arab leaders have indicated as such that they would recognize Israel. Similarly Israel will need to completely dismantle the settlements on the West Bank. However, the Arabs and Palestinians are not going to realistically get Israel to ever accept a so called “right of return” and allow hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to pour over into Israel proper due to some ancestral territorial claim. That just isn’t realistic and the Arabs/Palestinians will need to compromise on that point. If they don’t then I cannot realistically hold Israel solely accountable for whatever bloodshed may ensue in the future. I will hold its avowed enemies accountable for part of the blame on this point.

Again though, what I am saying is that this notion that Israel will somehow be “overrun” and cease to exist is pure foolish fantasy. It just isn’t going to happen regardless of how much hatred its neighbors may have for it. You can pretend all you want that Israel is “weak” because Hezbollah inflicted significant casualties upon the IDF in the 2006 Lebanon War or whatever, but that does not translate into a realistic prospect of unified, well armed factions of Arab armies, Shia militias, and Hezbollah walking into Tel Aviv and “liberating” anything. If anything remote close to that happens, every major city between Tehran and Beirut will be completely annihilated and brought to ruins.

The only people that believe that Israel will somehow be “conquered” any time soon, especially in ludicrous time frame of 5 years, are passionate opinionated ideologues on the internet or radical Islamist thugs like Hamas or Islamic Jihad in Gaza. I can with absolute certainty proclaim that nobody in Damascus, Beirut and Tehran is itching for some apocalyptic war that will result in the deaths of 10s of millions of people and possible massive nuclear fallout for the sake of a Palestinians “right of return” to Haifa or Tel Aviv.

Most people simply want Israel to stop its unprovoked aggressive behavior in the region, its settlements, the Jerusalem issue to be hashed out. And if Israel does not change its aggressive behavior, it will continue to be increasingly isolated on the international stage and in public opinion, including from people like myself, and will continue to face armed resistance and retaliation from nations whose sovereignty it doesn’t respect.

But the notion that Israel, a modern nuclear armed power, will face a full scale invasion, will capitulate, and the rest of the world will stand by the side lines because of economic problems that magically didn’t affect any Arab countries is just flat out foolishness. Things would have to get apologetically bad in a number of different ways, all over the world for this to even be remotely possible. And if things ever get that bad, we’ll have a lot more to worry about that any sort of regional war in Israel.

By the way this is not “my people”. I am not Jewish or Israeli. In fact I would argue that I tend to be more biased towards Palestinian geopolitical grievances against Israel rather than the other way around. In fact, if it were possible to go back in time, I don’t think Israel should’ve been created. However that does not mean I endorse fantasies of genocide and the outright invasion or destruction of a whole country, even if they happen to have used excessive force on a few dozen people trying to scramble across the border or are violating international norms with illegal settlement building.

Did you read my post? When did I say Israel would be militarily overrun?! I never said that, I said Israel only hold its ground economically becaue it is sustained by USA via its petrodollar fake money, but USA is getting exhausted as we speak, and if Israel is not aided by outside resources it won’t be economically viable, it may hold nuclear power status but it will be like DPRK, or even worse because they are surrounded by enemies on all sides.

Yet, I agree with you in the sense it may indeed survive because when they lose USA patronage they will be forced to seek peaceand make amends with their neighbors, or else there could be real danger of nuclear confrontation.

When the US goes, the world goes. Israel will hardly be on anyone’s mind if the US “goes”, including it’s avowed enemies. This “deep financial trouble” nonsense has been peddled for decades and is grossly exaggerated. A tough economic recession or two may be in the works, but a collapse verging on the point of baseline military incapability just isn’t going to happen.

Kind of pointless to even debate this. I’ll just wait another 40-50 years and watch as your “predictions” turn out to be false one after another.