This map shows the military situation in the area of Afrin where tensions are growing between the Kurdish YPG and pro-Turkish militant groups.
Click to see the full-size map
Map Update: Military Situation In Afrin Area
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SAA must help SDF. Russian troops are increasing their presence there, so Erdogan will dare not to provide a massive attack. It’s a good chance to fix a good relationship between SAA and SDF for the benefit of the future democratic Syria with Kurdish autonomy at the north.
True, but not while the SDF is opposing the SAA in its drive on Deir Ezzor and letting the US set up shop indefinitely on Syrian soil.
Yes, the game is sophisticated…many different interests and many different influences.
But it’s necessary to think about the post-ISIS time in Syria.
Seems like the SDF have been overthrown by US interests , the US “base treaty” , SyAAF plane downed , pilot captured and held etc. . This all recently as it is becoming clear that SAA has put ISIS in the bag , with clean up under way . Turkey is Wahhabi , at least Erdogan , and Turkey will be even harder to dislodge from Syria than an illegal US airbase .
Assad has made clear that Syria is not going to be sub-divided. That means that the Kurds are going to have to let the SAA control their territory or there will first be war, then they will lose, then they will sue for peace on Syrian terms.
So, the union is the best solution. Kurdish autunomia inside the Republic of Syria (not Syrian ARAB Republic). Friendly compromiss is necessary.
Dear Valery, Syria has a history of inclusion and secular respect for religious and human rights, particularly when compared to most other ME countries including Israel. Therefore, it seems likely that the Kurds will be allowed a great deal of autonomy if they swear allegiance to the Syrian government. If they do not, they will lose a civil war with Syria. From my perspective, the Kurds have no other rational choice. Similarly, I think the Kurds in northern Iraq are making a huge mistake by declaring autonomy from Iraq. They already have a record of running that economy into the ground, using the proceeds from oil sales to enrich a few oligarchs at the impoverishment of the vast majority of the population, rather like in Ukraine. Eventually the people will revolt and these areas will collapse and revert to Iraq.
I agree with you, JN. Kurds are like a delayed mine at the ME. This 30mln nation is divided between 4 countries, which are not interested to give them independence. So, I hope, Syria will agree with their autonomy. As to Iraq – Kurds already had autonomy there, as I know. It was even during Saddam’s power.
In Syria alavites are minority – and therefore it is better to build new Syrian state on a federal ground, without any religious or national domination.
Syria as JN said is an inclusive secular state , Assad is Alavite ( Shia ) , but both Sunni and Christians are loyal to him and the federal government . The Kurds have been granted such a large autonomy , that they have forgotten that it is the federal government protecting them from the Turkish . They are not a federal government , and have no right to give the US an air base in Raqqa . The US is trying to turn the Kurds against the government in order to keep this war going .
I agree that Alavites and Christians are loyal to Assad as a whole. While FSA initially was formed from Sunny officers and soldiers, defected from the SAA, as they considered Alavite’s domination in Syria as unfair. And now the permanent lack of manpower in SAA is due to the reluctance of local Sunnies to serve there. Before the beginning of the civil war the SAA had more than 200k troops in the time of peace.
The FSA were formed by Foreign Sunnis who thought they should have supremacy over all others and all the minorities should be subservient . This type of mentality was rampant under the Muslim Brotherhood , birth gave you the right and not merit . The biggest problem you had so many illiterate Sunnis from the right families in those positions and the job was being of families from the poorer classes .
This was a class issue with the elites making up what is known as the Muslim Brotherhood and why this party was banned in Syria they committed atrocities . They had been attacking and killing minorities and the poor they didn’t care about Sunni or otherwise .These were the ruling classes showing they still controlled the other minorities since the colonial times .
The successive governments that replaced this thinking of sectarianism going towards secularism and inclusiveness among all the classes . The Hatred engendered by sectarian thought was destroying families and friends and fellow countrymen is the reason they wanted and desired this type of change. This sounds like some advanced western societies, saying it is time to heal the wounds and remind themselves hatred never solves anything.
These are the reason they have so many Sunnis , Shias, Christians, Druzes , Alavi serving and are willing to Sacrifice for Syria and Bashar , to them he represents what Syria and its people are and wish for all their fellow Syrians all to enjoy freedoms and love for their country .
The Syrian Army is believed to be 500,000 now , time for you to stop believing western propaganda .
Thank you for the interesting information. While I have some doubts about the foreign origin of the FSA. Their commanders initially were former SAA generals and officers, defected from there. Even the first Syrian cosmonaut, being the friend of Russia, followed the same way. I am supporting seculiarism, of course, but I know how valid is the religion in muslim countries. As well as I know Alavites are considered by Sunnies as traitors of islam. And Alavites were minority of Syriab population, being at the same time the dominating group both in governmental institutions and in the SAA. Therefore I guess, that was the reason of a mutiny after Bashar’s plot of liberalization.
But what to do now? Sunnies will be the majority in Syria even after the collaps of ISIS (by the way, FSA was fighting with ISIS just after its penetration to Syria).
And interests of a majority must be taken into consideration in the future Syrian state.
Which autonomy was that? The autonomy they got when daddy Assad took away their nationality in 1961?
Rights are inly relevant in a state that recognizes rights, which Syria has never been.
Many of the Kurds disagree with these handful since they know the true nature of these small Kurdish Political groups and don’t support them. They started out from Afghanistan along with the Mongolian Hordes and spread from there and mixed themselves along the way. They always have that contingent that believe they’re the superior race , since they have a need for an Identity . The world seems to be full of those that are corrupt by nature .
The Syria Government has been patient with them , they had 20,000 without proper government ID , but ones authorized by the Kurdish Governor which has no federal powers to do so. Now they take all Arabs Identity cards and give them a piece of paper and are trying to treat them as the Israeli Jews treat the Palestinians by forcing them out of their homes .
These are the people you support those that would commit genocide and steal land , the Jews did this in the 1930’s and made up fake deeds, there were no deeds filed after 1936 in Palestine . The fact they are exclusionary doesn’t dawn on you naive Social justice Cucks . They have targeted those who oppose them as enemies and many Kurds and Arabs have been arrested and tortured already .
The US always picks bad allies because they always desire control over them , good allies they know they can’t control .
The Barzani family were in a large part responsible for ISIS’s rise since they supported the US Generals Ideas . Commander Zebari told the troops to leave everything behind and that demoralized the Iraqi Army to do so against a weaker opponent .
Syria has indeed a history of inclusion. The many of the disappeared jailed are a testimony of Syrian inclusion policies. No separate jails, just one big prison and security system.
As for KRG, everything you write about them goes for Iraq as a whole and they have the sunni shia and arab vs kurd divides on top of it. In Iraq hundreds of billions have been lost. They even had a fake “ghost” army, which was one of the many reasons why Iraq was overrun so easily by IS.
Although the map is nice, I cannot find a military situation on it.
Where are troops, lines, bases etc etc?
Would it be possible for the Kurds to bet on 2 horses? The Afrin Kuds on the Russian horse and the Rojava (northeastern Syrian) Kurds on American horse?
You describe the early 2016 situation. It could happen again. The SDF will put a high value on remaining cohesive.
The afrin Kurds are foolish to side with the Temporary backing of the US , and join the SDF. They need to wake up to the fact the us is going to abandon this whole project in 10 years and not make choices they’ll regret.