This article originally appeared at advance.hr translated by Stevo Marjanović exclusively for SouthFront
During the Cold War USSR was the country that was intensively “exporting revolutions”, in other words it spread its influence by supporting (militarily or financially), all those movements that were able to, or seemed capable of, overthrowing the current government and replace it with new one, that was, of course, loyal to Moscow.
It is not necessary to mention how this practice has tainted the image of socialism, and gave it a new, wrong meaning. But, when we are talking about this, it is interesting to point out how current Russian president Vladimir Putin talked about this during his speech before UN General Assembly. He actually reminded us of what USSR did once, and drew a parallel with what the US is doing today.
This is because US, just like USSR, is working intensively on exporting revolutions. Every country that is not oriented towards the US can, and probably will, become a target of this export. However, the US government does not like this term, so they will say how they are exporting democracy. They don’t really like the word “export”, it sounds like some that is imposed, so they will claim that they are only “promoting democracy”. In its essence, the process is almost the same as it was in the Soviet era – revolutions are exported by all means necessary. It is great if the peaceful “democratic” revolution is possible. It is great if you only need to send some money to a number of activists – nice image in the media, little bit of quarrel here, and a little blood on the side.
Of course, if revolution gets stuck, then other means are used. First step is arming the yesterdays peaceful protesters, those that, unfortunately couldn’t finish the job without the use of force. If that does not work, then there is always the American army, that will finish the job.
What can we learn from this? We can see that there are three methods, or three phases of revolution export.
1)Exporting revolution the peaceful way
This is the typical so called “orange revolution”, exporter, US or US together with the Western allies, does not have to be present too much. Everything is done through few influential channels. First step is to choose the individuals, locals, that will do most of the work. They will be the organizers, they will use all of their potential to mobilize people and point them towards the transition. It would be perfect if those people are not motivated just by money (although they will get the money after the work is done) but to also be ideologically motivated. Those people maybe do believe that their country, after it implements Western democracy, will become prosperous and rich. These are ideal people for this job, and strategically speaking they are called “useful idiots”. Of course, the exporter is the one that thinks that they are idiots, but they will do anything to make those people not feel like idiots. It is better if they think that they are important. Ideal time for “orange” revolutions is during the disputed elections, or during the media pressure on the government, often calling the government authoritarian (no matter how much that government really is authoritarian).
Some of the successful examples of the orange revolutions are Georgia 2003, Ukraine 2004, Lebanon 2005, etc.
Every orange revolution ends the same way. New government is appointed that is oriented towards the exporter. Few decades ago the exporter was Moscow, today it is Washington. Bearing in mind that today Washington is the only exporter of revolutions in the world we can conclude something interesting. If we are witnessing a large, organized movement whose goal is to remove current government – no matter if it is left wing or right wing, democratic or authoritarian, or something completely different – we can be almost certain that US is behind that movement. People do not know that, but of course their organizers know that, because they know where the money is coming from.
But can’t we have some authentic revolution? True fight against corrupt government? Yes, of course, but we haven’t witnessed something like this for a long time in this part of the world. There are a lot of corrupt government, but no one is protesting, because no one is organizing those people. Rebellion will start a lot easier if it’s supported from outside, otherwise a lot of time will pass before situation becomes unbearable.
US is not “exporting” democracy, US is exporting regime change there where they’re not satisfied with the regime. If they were truly exporting democracy, they would export it to Saudi Arabia, where heads are being chopped off. But no, Saudi Arabia is ally of the US, and thus it is safe from the overthrow. Of course, if they ever decide to do something that is not in accordance with the US (which could actually happen in this case), they would soon have protesters on their streets.
As for Europe, it is important not to cooperate too much with Russia, and everything will be fine.
2)Exporting revolution with weapons through proxies
If the coup fails to perform in a peaceful manner, and if the government does not flinch, yesterday’s peaceful protesters could suddenly become armed. How? Where from? There is always a way.
We have seen this recently in Libya and Syria. As soon as it became clear that the peaceful protests are a waste of time, either because government is authoritarian and tough, or will not hesitate to use force, the protesters are militarized and the protests are turning into a civil war.
We had this example in Afghanistan in the 80s. It is true that there were no protesters, but there were armed proxies. USA then fought against the Soviet Union (which intervened to save leftist government in Kabul loyal to Moscow) through proxies, and proxies were the Mujahideen. They were armed to the teeth, and now they do not prefer to talk about it, but history cannot be hidden.
In the more recent case of Libya in 2011 the United States has armed the Islamist militants in the east of the country in order to topple the government headed by a long-time president Muammar Gaddafi. But even that did not work, because the government had adequate army, so the third phase took place.
3) Exporting the revolution through military intervention
When it became clear that the US’s agents in Libya will not win the war, US became involved, militarily and directly. US warplanes have launched a major attack on the Libyan army, and in a few months completely destroyed it. After that it was only left for the Islamist militants to take over towns, brutally liquidate the Libyan president, change the flag and declare victory.
Things then became more complicated when the country sank into a chaos, instead of becoming US puppet in the North Africa. But the goal is still partially fulfilled – government critical of Washington was destroyed, although in this case there was a need to pass through all three phases.
Deviations
Of course, it does not always go according to plan. Sometimes these stages are simply skipped and we have a military aggression (because it is clear that the first two phases would be ineffective), for example in Iraq and Afghanistan.
These are the deliberate deviation from the rules, but sometimes, deviations occur unexpectedly, such as in Syria. The United States has not, at least not yet, reached the third stage because Russia got in the way. It was close, especially in August 2013, when the US accused the Syrian army of using chemical weapons against civilians (usage has never been proven, and there are strong indications that the chemical weapons were actually used by terrorists to intentionally accuse the army). But even then, Russia has already sent a message such as “enter Syria, but who knows what will happen next.”
Conclusion
These are the three classic stages of knocking down unsuitable authorities around the world. Only sometimes, the interests are pursued through diplomacy – for example in Cuba and Iran. But even that diplomacy could only be the prelude to one of the phases, probably first or second.
When US exports democracy it only sounds good, when in reality this is – without any exaggeration, (because millions of dead in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Korea, Cambodia, Vietnam, Panama, Somalia, Yemen, etc.) – genocidal imperialism.
Countries that have not yet been oriented towards the US economically and politically, are marked in red and must be subordinated in some way.
This process will be stopped only when the power is taken away from US – for example a multipolar world order in which several world powers would control each other. The solution to the current problems, and to prevent new genocides, is the democratization of the world.