Khalifa Haftar
Written by Piero Messina
The balance of power that has guaranteed a period of relative calm in Libya in recent years is once again at risk. In recent weeks, several political and military leaders have taken actions that the United Nations says have resulted in increased insecurity and a rapid deterioration of the political and economic situation. The conflicts between the authorities of the East and the West concern in particular the control of the Central Bank, which manages Libyan oil revenues, i.e. over 90% of the country’s tax revenues.
Since the fall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in 2011, Libya has witnessed a state of political and security instability, as the country has been divided into two competing governments, one in Tripoli led by Abdul Hamid Al-Dabaiba, and the other in the east led by Osama Hammad.
Despite the international efforts made to reach a political solution to the Libyan crisis, the situation remains stagnant and complex, as the Libyan parties face difficulty in agreeing on controversial issues, such as election laws and the distribution of power.
The complex political situation in Libya is due to a number of reasons, the most important of which are: political and military disputes between competing forces in the country, the interference of regional and international countries in Libyan affairs, which led to the fueling of the conflict, weak political and security institutions in the country.
The context has worsened since last summer. In August, militias and police forces of the Government of National Unity (GNU) of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah surrounded the headquarters of the Central Bank to oust the president, al-Siddiq al-Kabir. In response, the authorities in eastern Libya ordered a total shutdown of oil production and exports in the areas under their control, which include more than half of the country’s oil reserves and the terminals of es-Sider, Brega, Zueitina and Ras Lanuf. The Tripoli government is now facing a serious liquidity crisis, and is unable to make essential payments and transactions for millions of Libyan citizens. General Khalifa Haftar, who de facto governs eastern Libya, seems determined to provoke an economic and financial crisis to overthrow Dbeibah. The outcome of this new tug of war between East and West remains uncertain, and the risk of a new armed conflict is high.
In recent years, Libya’s relative stability has been based on two key pillars: the 2020 ceasefire and an informal agreement reached in July 2022 on the sharing of oil revenues between East and West.
Events in recent months have called both of these agreements into question, increasing the risk of conflict and economic collapse. Tensions mainly revolve around control of the Central Bank and the ouster of its president, al-Kabir. In the past, al-Kabir was an ally of Dbeibah, but relations between the two deteriorated in the second half of 2023, after al-Kabir accused the GNU of excessive spending and exhausting its allocation of public funds . In October 2023 the Central Bank therefore partially suspended the disbursement of new funds to the Dbeibah government. At the same time, al-Kabir approached the authorities in eastern Libya to counteract Dbeibah’s pressure. Growing tensions between al-Kabir and Dbeibah gave rise to mutual accusations in the first months of 2024. Finally, in August, militias and police forces loyal to Dbeibah’s GNU deployed outside the Central Bank headquarters to force the -Kabir to resign.
At the same time, several other developments have contributed to increasing tensions in the country. On 9 August armed clashes between militias caused at least nine deaths and sixteen injuries in Tajoura, on the outskirts of Tripoli. Although the violence appears to have arisen from local rivalries, the actors involved belong to opposing sides in the dispute between Dbeibah and al-Kabir.Haftar’s Libyan National Army has meanwhile undertaken important actions. On August 7, Haftar’s forces blocked oil production in Sharara, Libya’s most important field, with a daily output of 300,000 barrels. Libyan sources initially characterized this action as a form of retaliation against Spain. A Spanish company, Repsol, is in fact part of the joint venture that manages Sharara, and Spain has issued an arrest warrant for arms smuggling for Saddam Haftar, son of the general and chief of staff of the ground forces of the National Army Libyan. However, the Sharara blockade could also be interpreted as a prelude to a series of new unilateral actions by Haftar.
The clash over the Central Bank has heightened tensions between the two souls of the country.
With Tripoli’s attempt to gain control of the entire financial system, Cyrenaica’s response was strong and pressing. The now deposed Central Bank president subsequently revealed that he had fled abroad together with several senior officials, without revealing where, “to protect our lives” from the militias.
Haftar reacted to the GNU’s unilateral actions by imposing a total block on the production and export of hydrocarbons in the areas under his control. This move dramatically reduced Libya’s oil output, which stood at 1.18 million barrels per day in July. According to oil industry experts, current daily production could be as low as 300,000-400,000 barrels per day, a major blow to the country’s public finances
The oil blockade will have repercussions throughout Libya, but Haftar finds himself in a position of strength compared to Dbeibah. While eastern Libya has no liquidity problems for the moment, Dbeibah’s government has long been short of resources, and a new economic and financial crisis could lead to a paralysis of the public administration and the fall of the prime minister.
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only amerikans and turkeys prop up gnu
no actually libya is where russia and the americans are on the same side backing haftar along wth egypt and uae. turkey and i think italy backs the triploi government. the americans can be disregarded, they have no real interest in libya post-qaddafi. they did the damage with the british snakes and french fries. that was their role. the west is a terminal cancer on the planet.
i’m on a reconnaissance mission to uncover the hidden truth
it is all about turkish proxy war to control libya, ahahahah. american’s cant control libya so at least they wantto prevent chinese investments to the local oil industry. you now americans. if you can’t control it, at least destroy it so nobody has it. ahahah.
i could care less about libya now after these same idiots murdered qaddafi. they can all eat horse manure. they brought this whole thing on themselves.
but they have freedom and democracy 🤫