Click to see the full-size image
Written by Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant
Hamas’ recent attack on Israeli occupation forces appears to have caused a “shock” to Tel Aviv supporters. So far, many Israeli citizens and Zionist activists around the world do not seem to believe that local security forces were really unable to predict Palestinian actions and prevent the enemy military maneuver. Unsubstantiated conspiracy theories circulate online suggesting that Tel Aviv “allowed” the attack, when in fact the scenario only shows that Israeli intelligence is unjustifiably overestimated.
This was a historic failure of Israeli intelligence, being a true paradigm shift in the history of the Palestinian conflict. For the first time, Arab Resistance’s forces were strong enough to break Tel Aviv’s brutal siege of the Gaza Strip and enter deeply into Israeli territory, capturing hostages, eliminating IDF soldiers and bombing strategic cities.
Such is the Israeli failure that some people are believing there is something behind appearances – some “secret plan” by Israel to use the situation to its advantage. Internet users have suggested the possibility of the move having been an Israeli false flag operation to justify an escalation in the conflict and an invasion of the Gaza Strip. These conspiracy theorists believe that Israeli intelligence discovered the Palestinian plans in advance but simply did not thwart them because it saw them as “strategically interesting.”
If analyzed from a realistic point of view, this narrative does not seem to make any sense. The Zionist regime never needed “provocations” to “justify” attacks on Palestine. The IDF frequently bombs Palestinian territory, even without the resistance’s forces having made any military move. Furthermore, even if a false flag eventually occurred, it would certainly not happen with a high-level attack capable of demoralizing the Israeli forces and inflicting real damage on the Zionist State. For sure, something small-scale and strictly limited would happen, not a move similar to what Hamas did.
These mistaken thoughts are due to a conviction created over the decades in the supposed “infallibility” of the Israeli defense and intelligence system. Some people have started to believe that Israel is a kind of “unreachable” country, and that Tel Aviv has the most efficient security architecture in the world, being “incapable” of making mistakes. But, of course, these are just illogical assumptions, which are not proven by material reality.
These perceptions happen because Israel has always been very efficient in protecting itself from its regional enemies. The defense and security architecture developed by the Jewish State has long freed the local population from the effects of military efforts made by neighboring countries and rebel organizations. But this has more to do with the strength of Israel’s enemies than with the efficiency of the Zionist forces themselves.
Israel has always dealt with much weaker enemies. Regional wars in Palestine have almost always been asymmetrical, with the IDF having a strong advantage over its adversaries. This asymmetry made many people mistakenly think that Tel Aviv had reached extremely high levels of effectiveness, becoming virtually “infallible”. More than that, apparently, the Israeli forces themselves arrogantly believed in their supposed superiority and began to ignore risks, as can be seen in the fact that Egypt warned Israel about the threat of a Palestinian attack and was ignored.
Excessive confidence in its own forces caused Israel to neglect signs that pointed to the existence of a Palestinian attack plan. Added to this, Hamas’ military development surprised the Israelis. Instead of a poorly armed gang facing modern Israeli tanks, the current scenario of the conflict is that of a militia with much more developed firepower, possessing medium-range missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv, in addition to a reasonably sophisticated drone system.
Hamas, in cooperation with Israel’s regional enemies, greatly improved its military capabilities and became strong enough to bypass the Iron Dome air defense system through massive rocket launches, making it impossible for Israel to neutralize all the missiles. Also, it is possible to see that Palestinian soldiers are much better trained and equipped now, considering that so far Israel has not managed to completely expel them from its territory. The militia’s strength is clearly much greater than Israel was expecting, resulting in an intelligence fiasco. And now Israel resorts to terrorist practices like strikes on civilians zones, generating unnecessary human carnage.
Actually, Israel has now learned that it is not infallible and that its intelligence system, although strong, is not the “best in the world”. The case shows how strategic analysis is a task that must be done by professionals. Israel is an example of how analysts motivated by emotions misinterpret military phenomena and produce unrealistic narratives that often convince even state officials, generating mistaken strategies and decision-making.
You can follow Lucas on Twitter and Telegram.
israel knew it was coming. egypt warned them. something is not right. i think they wanted it to happen for some crazy reason. no idea what that reason is, but it looks like they knew, based on intelligence sharing via egypt. unless egypt is lying. who knows.
“for some reason” ..incompetence
it’s not incompetence it was planned obviously another false flag situation.
es gibt ja noch mehr geheimdienste. cia , mi5 oder 6 , bnd , 5 eyes . alle inkompetent ? echt?
20000 raketen in gaza das so groß wie hamburg ist? tonnen an amerikanische waffen? geliefert mit dhl? aus der ukraine? gaza ist so ziemlich abgeriegelt , seid jahren.
aber das kleine ägypten weiß , das was läuft ?
ich nenne das geld generieren.
für die ukraine gibt es nichts mehr.
die steuerzahler weigern sich.
1) bibi and his hardliner zionist coalition have been facing weeks of public mass protests over his project of judicial reform.
2) religious zionists under the protection of the police have been staging violent provocations in east jerusalem and attacking palestinians at al-aqsa for weeks.
this hamas “surprise” attack is the perfect opportunity for the zionist regime to justify:
the general mobilization for “war” (no more protests)…
the demonizing of the palestinians thru war propaganda (beheaded babies fake story)…
the theft of more palestinian land for the illegal settlers (david ben zion)…
the western world in general is suffering the results of woke gender politics where real men are being ostracised. woke politicians in the west have bankrupted their countries.
the adage, ‘go woke and go broke’ has also debilitated their armies, lol.
i agree. also the education system and media has dumbed people down. the west is behind the curve in stem — and of course that hurts military readiness and overall competence. moreover, it hurts the intelligence apparatus and technical fields like electronic warfare — where russia has shown its prowess.
other examples include the astronomically expensive western air defenses which are basically paper tigers. all things considered, it could be a blessing in disguise for the entire world — to usher in a multipolar world.
but it’s crazy given the amount of money the west, especially the us spends in military and security. what good are all these intelligence agencies and think tanks and bloated military budgets when some rebels can shock & awe you.
tell me whom ur rebels ever shocked or awed?
whether one likes it or not, the usa is a force to be reckonwned with, hasnt lost a single major battle for decades, have kiled millions of jungle/;sand nigars and thus have s battle proven officer corps.
lol you braindead moron.
usa lost in korea, vietnam, cambodia, lebanon, somalia and afghanistan, and even irak, libya and syria hard to say any kinda victory.
lol fuck head, any place/country u mentioned kill ratio was 1: million. korea, vietnam,cambodia etc now us allies and the rest worthless shitholes like russia.
so dawarish dont mess with the usa or it comes down on u.
fuck u ossi afd traitor abschaum. ab ins gas ivan flathead
is the us doesn’t smarten up, the anti american (and antisemite) sentiment would be too great to overcome. and it will take israel down with them. we already see everything backfiring such as in the case of sanctions and the worldwide use of the petrodollar.
agree with you cause usa practice throw and run, that why they never lost the battle.
derpity derp
hahahaa you clown.
ignoring what happen to the zios in the last days and 2006 from hisbollah?
and the future will be much more bloody and painfull for the zio terrorist cancerous subject.
dont hate on gneaus too much. he gets his world history from his local city college library and barnes & nobles bookstores. where all of the military history books are filled with pro america, jingoistic lies.
verrecke du saudumme zecke 🖕😡
sure afd russian flathead nazi.
hamas hamas die juden ab ins gas
you can’t equate military prowess with the kill: death ratio of killing paramilitaries in asymmetrical warfare in poor countries. the battlefield looks very different today than it did even in 2003. the empire is in decline. total spectrum dominance only existed for a brief time — and only against irregular paramilitaries/ insurgents.
and now — with the proliferation of cheap drones and guided missiles — total spectrum dominance doesn’t exist against insurgents, even. let alone a peer or near peer conventional military. aside from depopulation / killing a bunch of poor people, the us has failed to achieve its geopolitical goals in just about every conflict. the order ab chao doctrine is missing the order part —it’s chaos alone — and its backfiring on the west.
why did the us leave afghanistan so abruptly? with the vast rare earth metal reserves mostly intact and a lucrative opiate drug trade still generating immense revenues? honest question
training session ended,mission finished.
job done, horrido johoo dran drauf drüber
the us could never even seal the border with pakistan. the taliban surprised them at every turn with competent strategic planning and overall fighting competence. once iran’s missile programs advanced to a certain degree, the us had no choice but to exit or suffer unacceptable manpower losses.
in others word is coward.
not honest question, just ivan flathead yada yada . the usa won in afghanistan, stayed 10 years longer than the bolshiviks, lost almost noone and had support of cy+ countries
now tell me about the countries voting for/ with russia
the us was losing planes and helicopters full of special forces, intelligence agents, and officers [in afghanistan]. we see a repetition of this in ukraine, where russia has a no fly zone and shot down countless helicopters full of officers and coalition advisors in the beginning of the conflict. you think that by insulting you make your jingoism sound true — but if anyone needs a lesson — it is you.
not honest answer also.
the conspiracy also serves to minimize hamas’ achievements, and capacity to stage a well planned, coordinated attack. just like the claims iran must have planned it for them. it’s all part of purporting the palestinians as retarded animals, rather than very industrious considering their circumstances.
that and because they want a political justification for starting a direct confrontation between the west and iran. that’s why they blame iran. but there is truth in that. iran does support hamas and hezbola with financial and material support. that’s why israel bombs syria with extreme prejudice.
bibi and co. are clearly lying with a “1.2k” body count as they did with the beheaded babies fake story.
agreed, hamas executed a planned attack, got a few soldiers, took a couple of hostages here and there but other than that… seriously, what did they really achieve?
on the other hand 5 hours without a zionist soldier in sight, surely we have to admit that’s an achievement.
plenty of veterans officers posting that the idf response to this “surprise” attack was fishy.
what they have achieved, is plant doubts in israeli heads about their security, give hope not just to 2m gazans, but all displaced. trump calls for netanyahu impeachment, benny gantz joins gvt, and judicial reform seems a dead duck. how does this help netanyahu?
we are witnessing the entire western mafia system collapsing in real-time. thank god i lived long enough to see this. it might be high time for american patriots to take control of our country back from these criminals and prostitutes.
it just seems less possible given isreali track record but you do make good points. like the us and nato, now that they are up against russia they are really terrorists circumventing international laws they portended to uphold. my concern stands with the on going critical situation with 2.3 million gaza palestinians. without medical supply, food and water super critical.