Written by Piero Messina
We are dancing in the crater of a volcano. Israel has decided: it will attack Gaza by air, by land and by sea. The Tel Aviv government’s decision exposes the entire Middle East to a long and cruel conflict, the final geopolitical consequences of which are completely unpredictable. At stake, however, is not only the survival of Palestine (if one ever existed), but also of Israel.
The pressure exerted by Tsahal on the Gaza Strip may have repercussions on the entire area, with Egypt and Jordan fearing for their internal stability. More than two million Palestinians are at risk of hunger due to depleting food supplies, says a representative of UNRWA in the Gaza Strip. A massive wave of refugees from Palestine could cause the political and social default of the two state entities. It is therefore no coincidence that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Jordanian King Abdallah II have decided to take a common posture against Israel’s moves, condemning what is defined as “collective punishment in the siege or displacement” of Palestinians.
The two leaders warn that prolonging the war in Gaza risks dragging the region into a “catastrophe”, and launch a new appeal to immediately stop the war, protect civilians, lift the siege and provide humanitarian aid to the Palestinian enclave. To avoid any misunderstanding, Egyptian President Al Sisi also clarified that “the idea of displacing Palestinians to Sinai means dragging Egypt into a war against Israel.
For sure Tel Aviv understands that hundreds of thousands of people indoctrinated by Hamas, and therefore by the Muslim Brotherhood, will blow up the internal political situation in Egypt, by the way, as well as in Jordan. The military regime in Egypt is unstable, especially against the background of economic and food problems. They will either run towards Europe in the guise of refugees, tens of millions, sticking the peoples of neighboring countries to themselves, or if a radical ideology led by a strong leader wins, then they will rush to sweep away the state of Israel.
Why did Israel decide to gamble everything and do it now? Why now? Beyond national security reasons (were the Israeli intelligence agencies taken by surprise? Did they underestimate the alerts? Did they close their eyes because it was necessary to open hostilities now?) it is perhaps worth including the complex situation in the equation interior of the Jewish state. The country, in fact, is still in turmoil over the controversial justice reform desired by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who seeks to reduce the powers of the Supreme Court in favor of the executive and the Knesset, Israel’s single-chamber parliament.
The reform project has been opposed in recent months not only by civil society, but also by large sectors of the security apparatus. In an attempt to keep the government afloat, Netanyahu has granted space and power to the most extremist souls of the executive, such as the Minister of Internal Security Itamar Ben Gvir. The idea that Hamas seized the opportunity, exploiting a moment of particular weakness and division within the Jewish state to deal a devastating blow, cannot be completely ruled out. But we cannot exclude a specific desire on the part of Tel Aviv to launch long-planned military and expansionist projects. Because the recent history of the IDF’s military strategies also tells us this.
In Tel Aviv everything has always been planned meticulously. From the IDF operational manual we have always known what the main challenges to counter are: states – far (Iran) and near (Lebanon), failed, disintegrating (Syria); sub-state organizations (Hezbollah, Hamas); or terrorist organizations with no connection to a specific state or community (Global Jihad, Palestinian Global Jihad, Islamic State and others).
But something has changed in Israeli military doctrine. For at least three years, the IDF has been ready to sustain a “ring of fire” battle, that is, a definitive war, a sort of All-in, in which the country finds itself surrounded by regional powers.
![Israel Wants War And A “Decisive Victory” Because Its Future Is At Risk Israel Wants War And A “Decisive Victory” Because Its Future Is At Risk](https://s2.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/image_2023-10-08_161140177-e1696770861497-490x276.jpg)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) meets with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (C) and military chiefs at IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv for a security assessment on October 8, 2023 (GPO)
There are some internal documents of the Israeli government and army that tell exactly this. In 2018, Prime Minister Netanyahu presents the National Security 2030 report. That document “assumes that the defense establishment prepares to cope with Iran in the year 2030. In a situation where Iran had not acquired a nuclear capability and assuming a regime similar to the present one is still in control, coping with Iran in 2030 will probably be similar to coping with Iran today. However, the task of coping with Iran will be radically different if we assume that Iran possesses a nuclear capability. In that case, the balance of power between Israel and Iran will change, and it is possible that Iran under a nuclear umbrella will dare to deploy ground divisions, including armored elements, in Iraq and Syria. In the first scenario, Israel should strengthen its air force primarily, while in the second scenario – the IDF will be required to cope with a new and significant state land threat, and the importance assigned to Israel’s armored warfare capabilities will change. In another example, if the Muslim Brotherhood should once again seize power in Egypt, the new situation will rekindle the discussion regarding the deployment of the IDF ground elements and enhancing Israel’s defensive capabilities in armed conflicts between states”.
Reading National Security 2030, one understands how Tel Aviv’s real concern is “scenarios like a nuclear Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood seizing power in Egypt again or the disintegration of the Hashemite regime in Jordan are not zero-probability scenarios”. Palestine does not represent, for the drafters of that document, a “strategic” danger: “while a third Intifada and Palestinian terrorism do not threaten Israel strategically, geopolitical changes Israel does not control will have a decisive effect on Israel’s ability to cope with the threats”.
National Security 2030 is just a political program. But it was developed by IDF with a very specific strategic document. We talk about the adoption of a four-year plan called “Momentum” (Tnufa in Hebrew), initially launched for the period 2020–24. Typically, four-year programs drive the IDF’s force buildup, training, resource allocation, and overall efficiency. According to IDF public statements, the new plan was built upon the scenario of a multifront war and aimed to prepare soldiers for “swift and massive use of force against enemy systems.” Tnufa reportedly also made numerous references to the idea of being “multi-dimensional” and “multi-force”—that is, more tightly integrating naval, land, air, cyber, and intelligence resource. The key concept to understand the current Israeli military strategy is “multifront war”.
Tel Aviv thus imagines itself ready for the final challenge.
It’s a process that started several years ago. Now for the command of Tsahal the concept of victory has also changed. Victory is either definitive or it is not victory. In 2020, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the development of a new operational concept called Decisive Victory that aimed to change the way Israel fights wars and to redefine victory on the battlefield. The root cause of this change was the evolution in nonstate threats from armed groups in Gaza and Lebanon. The concept was to drive major reforms of the IDF in training, interoperability among the services, weapons procurement, and civil-military relations. However, the efforts encountered significant challenges in terms of politics, financial resources, and the implications for the IDF’s force structure.
One thing is certain from now on. This war will be different. The success of Hamas, the violence of terrorist actions, the structured and massive use of rockets from Gaza and the ability of Palestinian commandos to penetrate inside Israeli territory through techniques, tactics and structured procedures that took the intelligence by surprise Israeli war highlight the emergence of war scenarios and threats that are very different from those that characterized the second Lebanon war, Operation “Strong Cliff” (2014) and Operation “Wall Guardian” (2021). These campaigns cannot be taken as a reference for the preparations of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for the ongoing war, simply because the current situation is the result of the overlap of all potential threats: internal, external, regional and global, intertwined with each other.
It is quite clear that the Israeli offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and in defense of probable internal and external threats, from the West Bank to Lebanon, can develop following the principles of the strategic doctrine of the IDF, as outlined by General Gadi Eizenkot, head of the Israeli Defense General Staff from 2015 to 2019, which, in 2020, was followed by the new operational concept called “Decisive Victory” which defines groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah not as “insurgents” or “guerrillas”, but as “armies organized, well trained, well equipped for their missions” capable of improving their capabilities over time. The reform of the IDF, which follows the dictates of strategic doctrine and operational concept, has also been shaped by concerns about the prospects of horizontal escalation, i.e. the opening of multiple fronts at the same time, which is actually taking place, giving rise to a regionalization of the conflict. By this logic, the ongoing conflict, which began in Gaza, could trigger clashes in the West Bank, southern Lebanon or the Golan Heights.
The consequences of this conflict, yet another piece of a third world war being fought brick by brick (because it is the clash between the West in crisis and the emerging Brics model), extend beyond the Middle Eastern area. And they manage to drag the entire planet into chaos. In the United States they have created a simulation of the worst case economic scenario linked to the Middle Eastern fall-out. Very worst. It is a 10-point decalogue.
1) the conflict becomes regional and Washington becomes officially involved.
2) OPEC responds with an oil embargo.
3) Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.
4) The price of oil hits 300 dollars a barrel.
5) Europe is falling into an energy crisis worse than 2022.
6) The explosion in energy prices is fueling inflation and causing central banks to start raising rates again.
7) Financial crisis and the global banking system.
8) The debt crisis therefore forces the Fed to return to the field to save the markets. Monetary short circuit.
9) The petrodollar trade collapses.
10) Weimar 2.0, hyperinflation.
Finally, a brief sociological analysis is necessary. When evaluating Israel’s strategic choices and the decision to go straight towards what Tel Aviv hopes will be the decisive victory, some social and demographic parameters must also be considered.
One factor that Israel takes into great consideration is that of demographic development. Demography plays a crucial role in the conflict, as does its evolution over time. Both populations have grown over the last century, increasing tension in a relatively small area, especially if we exclude desert areas, useless for human settlements.
Israel had just over one million inhabitants at its birth in 1948, but the country has grown stronger and today reaches 9 million, destined according to the latest United Nations projections (medium variant) to reach 10 million in 2030 and 13 million in 2050. He still remains a flea compared to the Muslim giants that surround him. Furthermore, demographic growth is not at all homogeneous, and indeed there are very notable disparities between the various Israeli socio-ethnic communities of great political and social importance.
Within twenty years, the Israeli community will be made up of thirty percent Haredim, ultra-Orthodox Jews. The relationship between the Haredim and the rest of Israeli society could lead to serious geopolitical consequences for Israel; the majority of Haredim are skeptical of Zionism, if not even against the existence of the State of Israel. Their numerical growth is also becoming increasingly problematic for the security of Israel itself, given that the Israeli defense model is essentially based on military leverage to maintain both an offensive and defensive conventional potential sufficient for deterrence. Haredim are exempt from military service.
From a demographic point of view, Israel is small compared to the growing Muslim world around it, and its demographic growth comes above all from communities distrustful or reticent towards the national-Zionist establishment. By 2030, Egypt is expected to reach 125 million inhabitants, Iran 92 million, Iraq 52 million, Turkey 89 million, and Syria 30 million. Also in 2030, an average of 36.5 percent of the Muslim population of the countries surrounding Israel will be between 15 and 34 years old. Also due to this risk of “extinction”, global war is a necessary strategy for Israel today. It is no coincidence that Bibi Netaniayhu, borrowing Winston Churchill’s speech, announced the war with these words: “the Western world stood with you 80 years ago during your darkest hour, this is our darkest hour”
i stopped reading at “if one over existed”
would agree to that.
you made the right choice. it’s all predictable falsehoods, fraudulent fakery and ‘by the numbers’ msm style revisionism from that point on, so you didn’t miss anything. i’m sure western ai journo-bots could churn this stuff out all day to order, and probably do. it’s a bit like the ‘literary’ equivalent of ’80s style elevator or shopping mall muzak, without the cheeze.
i continued reading, and was a waste of my time,
you missed nothing.
myslím, že je to sprostosť!!! týmto sa práve sám ohrozuje a ohrozuje si svoju budúcnosť. mali už dávno sedieť za stolom a rokovať o vytvorení štátu palestína a podeliť sa o hlavné mesto jeruzalem!!! ale nie, židia v izraeli to urobili presne naopak.
publishing zionist shitposts now ?
se southfront é sionista vai perder leitores de todo o mundo.
america, israel and britain….the sick men of the world
this is part of the globalist/zionists big play for global domination along with a future war with china and russia. america is not expected to survive.
can you elaborate, or point to sources for further research, ty.
my biggest concern is the planet. if the zionists decide that, ” if i’m going down, then i’m taking you with me”. they have nukes! no one survives that and they are insane enough to use them too.
1000’s of nukes were already set of in the great nuclear bombs testing period of the 1940’s to 1960’s, and even though the overall radiation level of the planet went up, life went on.
so surprisingly large areas of the world would survive a nuclear war.
there were 2 bombs ‘tested’ that took 100,000 lives instantly, and they were small compared with todays. do you recall hiroshima and nagasaki? multiply that by todays abilities and delivery systems. if you think that would be something to watch on your tv and survive, you are very naive.
– south america, central and southern africa, oceania far enough away from nuclear war.
– countryside areas of russia where they can live in their second country homes (dachas) which every family has and they have kept the skills for home grown food and its storage.highly centralised economic regions with centralised food and water systems in the northern hemisphere where the nuclear war would be greatest would not survive.
la suposición expresada de que palestina no existió ” si es que alguna vez existio” hace que el escrito desde el inicio este sesgado.
“terrorismo palestino” claramente señala a los oprimidos de ser los “malos de la película ” este sujeto maneja el lenguaje suave y diplomático pero no es analista neutral.
the premise is wrong. piero, you’re just another zionist supremacist.
of course there was a palestine. how can you even write about the subject if you don’t know the very basics. why do you think even golda meir said: “i used to be a palestinian”. because there was no palestine???
the second major point of ignorance is that you think it’s up to israel to make the rules, to decide on war or not. that’s not the case anymore. even if israel wanted a cease-fire, they wouldn’t get it. you are quite right in one point: it’s about the existence of the zionist settler colony’s regime.
nation states in the region or their ‘politicians’ are largely irrelevant – it’s the people who decide. they stand overwhelmingly with the palestinians. do you think the resistance started this just to get bombed and sent back to their ghettos? no. and again no. this is the real thing. this won’t end until ‘israel’ ends. whatever israel offers or even the us etc. is irrelevant.
things have changed and it’s amazing to see how ‘analysts’ and whatnot they call themselves completely miss the boat on this.
indeed, israeli society was highly fractured, with internal turmoil at an all time high. protests against judicial reform lasted
for months up until the day of the attack, and we’re relentless: thousands protesting everyday. of course this gave hamas an opportunity. this is why people want netanyahoo gone
the problem is the zionist ideology. it’s not compatible with current international law, so one will have to go.
the western hemishphere is no longer compatible with neoliberal economics and international law. hence the us and nato countries applying the pressure on china
death to israel…here in the us we need to start preparing to keep those mfkers out when the arabs “sweep away” the criminal state of israel.. they can go back to poland or to hell
cool story bro
those dirty little coward of most moral army as they shoot children and pregnant mother…just that two hit as american stupid are now about to take up heavy lift…just so stoopid american goi…
israel wants to ethnically cleanse gaza from all palestinians who live there muslims christians women and children anyone of the 2 million people who live there is amalek according to the racist fanatics in the likud party and should be killed.
i have seen plenty of rabbis saying there should be no cease fire and that in war everything is allowed and mitzvah to kill the enemy.
as opposed to the 5+ million native americans livings in reservations or should we call them concentration camps in the states — in deplorable conditions with alcoholism & meth, crack, heroin addictions . yeah, americans are so moral and not hypocritical at all
israel and usa both settler colonies based on violent expulsion of the peoples who were already there. same foundation for both countries, so normal that they get along.
say what you like about the nazis and their crimes, but the nazis never bombed hospitals full of jewish children. no jew went hungry in the “concentration camps”. the nazis never deliberately targeted and massacred women and children. jews in israel are deliberately killing women and children.
for 75 years, jews have been weaponizing and using the halohoax to justify the ongoing (75 years) of the palestinians genocide.
“no jew went hungry in the concentration camps”
let me guess, you also think somehow thousands upon thousands of pictures showing starved jews were faked? are you an idiot or arguing in bad faith?
totaly agree with u and as usual he must be example of russia’s finest at work. the only time rashniks/ bunker grandpa tell the truth,is when blaming others for crimes, hatred, idiotcrazy they commited themselves.
say what u want, but u are indeed a fucking retarded rashnik flathead subhuman ivan assclown.
lol getting 21 ups by the rashniks/ putin’s pretending to fight nazis. russia really need dedumbification. boy oh boy are those flatheads subhuman assclown soldestka horde rapist ,anti christian scum.
did hamas or israel miscalculate? the arab world abandoned hamas
hamas is a nihilist death cult, their whole calculation is death and death only. death kike good, gaza death even better.
they are not the slidest interested in military aims/ targets.
perfect example tons of idf forces gather close to gaza and the shit iranian sponsored sandniggers continue sending rockets towards tel aviv instead of idf close by.
that’s because they dont have targeting systems aside from the manpads. they dont have access to iranian satellite and radar technology for guided missiles (let alone kost rockets which dont even have guidance) so they have to take pot shots. also they limit use of manpads on outskirts of city because they become easy targets.
hamas intelligence at perfect display,so to speak. wasnt there something like dont show up to a gun fight with a knife?
hamas is toast/ death and they know/ want it. only way they stay relevant is getting as many civilans killed with them. offically hamas currency death gaza kids/ babys.
hamas will eat the idf tranny boyz alive and spit out their bones in the rubble that “gallant” zionazi pilots have made of gaza. this one is for all the marbles and the region will strike back like the squatters can’t imagine. pentaconners orchestrating and slumvillain tax cattle paying for this need to be reminded of their ignominious defeat and retreat from afghanistan.
are they ready for 3 or 4 million chosenites in wyoming or muslim occupied urupp? the me will never be the same again nor indeed the collapsing anglozionazi empire of filth.
interesting fantasy movie, when is it coming to cinemas?
great report and pointed most of israel-palestine issues, they should add more information and details about israel defense budget, shin bet budget, mossad budget from previous year 2022, this year 2023, and next year but it’s for sure the info i wanted to read is sf is classified
there is absolutely no future for the jewish state.
they themselves have completely and irreparably destroyed their own future.
the final work on it will soon be done by the russians, chinese & co.
gone and done – forever and ever!
before netanyahu came to israel he was mafia running a money laundering scheme out of new jersey under cover of a mattress firm, one of which i actually sleep on, anyway, that firm has connections to the remnants of al capone’s old gang, in fact much of the neo-nazi agenda is still centered in the chicago land area with both his daughter and first wife, running the mainstream media
southfront como você fala sobre a palestina (se existiu)? não reconhece a existência da palestina? southfront é bancado por sionistas? não entendi porque escreveram colocando dúvidas na existência da palestina. vocês são sionistas? eu deixarei de apoiá-los se vocês apóiam o estado terrorista de israel.
se southfront é um site sionista, não merece um centavo de nosso dinheiro de doações. decidam de que lado vocês do southfront querem estar.
if us were to fall into civil war before israel made its move, where would that leave them? dead