Illustrative image. (The Israeli Defense Forces)
Intelligence obtained recently by the United States suggests that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, CNN reported on May 20, citing three U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence.
One of the officials told the news channel that the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran “has gone up significantly in recent months,” adding that that the chance of a strike would be more likely if the US reached a deal with Iran that did not remove all of the country’s uranium.
According to CNN, the intelligence was based on the public and private communications from senior Israeli officials as well as intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military movements.
Citing the two other officials, the channel said that the Israeli military preparations observed by the U.S. were the movement of air munitions and the completion of an air exercise. The channel noted, however, that the moves could be part of an Israeli pressure campaign against Iran rather than an indicator of a possible strike.
Following a tense period earlier this year which saw U.S. President Trump directly threatened Iran with military action, the two sides launched indirect nuclear talks with help from Oman in April.
So far, four rounds of talks have been held, with the U.S. Special Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi leading the talks.
Despite reports of progress after the last round, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on May 20 that the U.S. demands that Tehran stop enriching uranium are “excessive and outrageous,” voicing doubts over whether the talks on a new nuclear deal would succeed.
A source familiar with the Trump administration’s thinking told CNN that the U.S. was unlikely to assist Israel in a strike against Iran right now, while a U.S. official said that intelligence efforts were ramping up to help if Israeli leaders decide to attack.
The channel also cited a source familiar with the matter saying that Israel does not have the means to take out Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. help.
This was denied by an Israeli source, who told the channel that Israel was ready to act alone if Washington negotiates a “bad deal” with Tehran that is unacceptable to Jerusalem.
“I think it’s more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal,’” a person familiar with U.S. intelligence told CNN. “The Israelis have not been shy about signaling that to us… both publicly and privately.”
In another indication of the Trump administration moving away from plans to strike Iran, it was revealed on May 20 that the U.S. had pulled out all six B-2 stealth strategic bombers from Diego Garcia. The bombers were deployed at the Indian Ocean island, within striking distance from Tehran, earlier this year.
Due to its ability to penetrate dense air defense networks and deliver very heavy bunker buster bombs, the bomber was always considered essential for any strike on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, like the Natanz uranium enrichment site.
Israel could decide to stroke Iran alone, even if a new nuclear agreement was reached. Without U.S. help, the strike is not guaranteed to be successful. However, such a strike is certaine to ignite a dangerous confrontation in the Middle East, one that the U.S. will not be able to stay away from.
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