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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on November 24 called for “revenge” for the assassination of Hezbollah’s military chief of staff Haytham Ali Tabatabai, increasing the chances of a new war with Israel.
The commander was killed a day earlier in an Israeli strike that targeted the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, Beirut.
Tabatabai was the most senior member of Hezbollah to be killed by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) since a ceasefire in Lebanon brokered by the United States entered into effect nearly a year ago. In the group’s command and control chain, he was considered second only to Secretary-General Naim Qassem.
The Israeli Foreign Ministry said that the assassination was a response to “Hezbollah’s repeated violations of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and the 2024 ceasefire understandings, as well as the threat he posed to Israel and to regional stability.”
Hezbollah mourned Tabatabai, eulogizing him as a “great Jihadi commander” in an official statement, but stopped short from vowing to respond to the killing.
The IRGC appears to be willing to take action, likely because of the Iranian origins of the Tabatabai. The commander was born in 1968 in Beirut to a south Lebanese mother and an Iranian father.
“The right of the Axis of Resistance and Lebanese Hezbollah to avenge the blood of the brave fighters of Islam is unquestionable,” the guards said in a statement, referring to the network of Iran-backed terror groups hostile to Israel.
On the very same day, it was reported that the IDF is geared up for a potential response for the assassination of Tabatabai.
The Israeli Air Force bolstered air defenses in the north for possible rocket fire by Hezbollah from Lebanon, and also raised its level of alert, The Times of Israel reported, citing military sources, which noted that the IDF has no specific information indicating that Hezbollah is planning a rocket barrage.
The assassination appears to be a part of a multi-stage escalation plan meant to set the tone for a new war on Lebanon, with the pretext being Hezbollah’s attempts to rebuild.
A report released by The Wall Street Journal on November 25 said that Tabatabai was a key part of the group’s efforts to rebuild. He helped the group largely replace its thousands of lost fighters, ensure commanders trained capable replacements lest they be killed, and transition to fighting in smaller cells to better survive another war with Israel, according to the report.
Previous WSJ reporting said that Arab and Israeli intelligence indicates Hezbollah is restocking rockets, anti-tank missiles and artillery via Syria.
These reports and others from Hebrew and Arab media echoes the exact same accusations Israel has been making for weeks now.
Hezbollah has so far refused to disarm, despite the Lebanese government launching a plan to achieve this under pressure from Israel and the U.S. in September.
Everything indicates that a war with Israel is nearing. The IRGC never vowed to respond without taking action, and both Hezbollah and Iran understand that the IDF will likely escalate even if no response was carried out. Of course, Israel, from its side, will use any retaliation as an excuse to attack Lebanon, and possibly even Iran itself.
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