How Will Turkish Voyage Turn Out For Russian Airline Industry?

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Originally appeared at TASS; Translated by AlexD exclusively for SouthFront

On the foreign premiere of the MS-21 and prospects in the Turkish market for the SSJ-100, Be-200 and Su-35 aircrafts

This year, the festival of aviation, space and technology Technofest in Istanbul became the first foreign premiere of the newest Russian medium-haul passenger aircraft MS-21 (“Mainline aircraft of the XXI century”). Other domestic aircraft arrived at Ataturk Airport, the short-haul Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ-100), the Be-200 amphibious aircraft and the SU-35 multipurpose fighter, which is, in fact, the technological predecessor of the Su-57 in the world arms market.

“A good signal for other states”

The Russian presentation in the skies of Istanbul is in some way a response to Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the MAKS 2019 air show and the continuation of the dialogue started there on the future prospects of military-technical cooperation between Russia and Turkey. “The demonstration of our aircraft on Turkish soil is of great geopolitical importance. The festival itself is of business interest, where a huge number of potential aircraft customers are from around the world”, said TASS head of the bureau of military-political analysis, Aleksandr Mikhailov.

According to him, the Turkish market has great potential for our aircraft manufacturers, especially after the conclusion of major defence contracts for the supply of S-400 systems and the subsequent refusal of the United States to supply the latest combat aircraft to the Turkish Air Force, the choice for the purchase of really high-quality military equipment from Erdogan “is not so big”.

Turkey is constantly at the forefront of the Middle East military conflicts, and therefore is now actively increasing its military power, claiming to be an important player in the region. And the active saturation of the Middle East with the latest weapons and aircraft of American and Israeli-make obviously worries the Turkish leader

Aleksandr Mikhailov
Head of Bureau of Military-Political Analysis

According to experts, the appearance of promising Russian fighters in the eastern and Asian markets, in turn, can balance this overrepresentation.

The Turkish market is very important for Russia. “Turkey is our closest neighbour, and the development of relations with it, especially in the field of military-technical cooperation, strengthens interstate ties, makes them more pragmatic and predictable, mutually beneficial”, said the TASS military observer Viktor Litovkin.

Su-35 fighter – © Marina Lystseva/TASS

“Turkey is a NATO member, an ally of the United States, a state subject to obstruction in Washington and Brussels for its willingness to cooperate with Russia”, the expert says. Help Ankara defend its sovereignty, not only political, but also military-technical, is a geopolitical and, let’s not hide, commercial task. I would even say it is a political move”.

If Turkey, a NATO country, does not buy American equipment, but Russian, despite the threat of sanctions, it means that it believes that the Russian in its tactical and technical characteristics exceeds the combat models of Western firms, including American ones

Viktor Litovkin
TASS military observer

The expert believes that this is a good signal for other states that do not like the American dictatorship. “And if the Americans are angry, it shows that they are not able to withstand peaceful competition”, he adds.

“We are not the ones poking into the Turkish market, they are inviting us”

The appearance of our aircraft in the sky of Istanbul is, of course, “a breakthrough idea for us, which will help us develop further”, said the honoured military pilot of the Russian Federation, Major General Vladimir Popov. “For the world it is a flag that everyone will pay attention to. As if we supposedly scared the whole world, but countries are still drawn to us, which since the Soviet era interacted with us”, said Popov to TASS.

According to the expert, it is very advantageous for Turkey from an economic point of view to communicate with our “defence” and the aviation industry as a whole, because here first place is given to the price-quality ratio.

Our aircraft, first of all, is high quality, simple, but effective and affordable in comparison with the magnificent machines of the West. But they are too “abstruse”, oversaturated with automation systems and computers. Even we know examples such as the Boeing 737 MAX 8. They wanted to be ahead of the rest of the world, but were left behind by the failures and shortcomings that we talked about and warned about 25 years ago. After all, automation should help, not control a person

Vladimir Popov
Honoured military pilot of the Russian Federation, Major General

Erdogan reassessed values in time, the expert believes. “They understand that you can get quality equipment for less money. That is, for example, the ratio in comparison with American aircraft can be 1:2 or even 1:3. We do not “abstruse” on the market of Turkey, but they come to us, turn, understanding our fair price, says Popov. We do not give gifts, we sell equipment. And at a price that becomes qualitative indicators and efficiency, and the need for this equipment for the state that acquires it from us”.

Thus, the Su-35 fighter jet presented at the Technofest in Istanbul has been of particular interest to the world media for several years. It was often compared to Western models, including the newest American fifth-generation aircraft, the F-35 and the F-22 Raptor. Foreign publications have repeatedly written that if the Su-35 and the F-35 meet in air combat, the American will try to avoid a confrontation and summon the F-22 and the F-15C which are better suited for air combat.

Su-35 fighter – © Marina Lystseva/TASS

As for the stability, controllability, manoeuvrability and aerodynamics modes, the Su-35 has already passed all the tests and is understood by the pilots from top to bottom. And, perhaps most importantly, the plane turned out to be quite multifunctional. “There is the possibility of using a wide range of modern weapons, including at the same time with the use of old strike forces and means that are available in the armaments of almost any state”, Popov says.

However, this voyage of Russian machines should not be considered only from the point of view of the Turkish market, it is an international show. “This is one of the sites where the products of our civil aviation industry will be demonstrated in the future. Because the goods need to show their face”, noted Roman Gusarov, chief editor of Avia.ru, in a conversation with the TASS journalist.

In particular, the display of the Su-35 is the development of the interest shown during the MAKS 2019 air show, the head of the Turkish defence industry department Ismail Demir told reporters at Technofest. “We continue the detailed study of your machine. Moreover, we would like to thank Russia for providing such an opportunity to obtain more detailed information on the aircraft”, he said. Earlier it was reported that the acquisition of the Su-35 fighters by Turkey could be an interim solution for the Republic.

Today the Turkish Air Force is one of the most powerful in the region. It should be noted that their weapons are not the most modern models of aircraft.

The Turkish Air Force has a significant fleet of support aircraft: the country is in the top 10 air forces of the world in the number of tanker aircraft (ninth place, seven aircraft), transport aircraft (seventh place, 87 aircraft), helicopters (eighth place, 459 helicopters) and training aircraft and helicopters (tenth place, 289 units). As well, in terms of combat aircraft, the country is in the top 20 largest air forces.

MS-21: worthy competition of Airbus and Boeing

It is the first demonstration of the still-in-development MS-21 to the foreign market. This airliner in the Eurasian market in the class of short- and medium-haul passenger aircraft can compete with Airbus and Boeing, while the American corporation is experiencing great image problems.

According to experts of UAC (United Aircraft Corporation), the MS-21-300 finds itself in the most popular niche. “We have analysed a lot of orders that are placed on the competitors’ aircraft, they all show that aircraft of increasing capacity are being ordered. Demand balances between A320 and A321. It is in this segment that the MS-21-300 finds itself”, Kirill Budaev, Vice President for marketing and sales of PJSC Irkut Corporation, said during the recent presentation of the aircraft at MAKS 2019.

This machine is the first liner made entirely according to Western standards, taking into account world trends and real market demands. Created without the Soviet reserve, it is the second after Sukhoi Superjet 100 large-scale Russian project in the field of civil aviation. The range of its flight (6000 km) allows it to fully cover the need of Russian airlines for medium-haul airliners. According to the developers, over the next 20 years the world will require about 30 000 such aircraft, and a potential demand of 1000 aircraft for the MS-21.

The MS-21 is a plane of the XXI century, not only in name. You should always remember that many features of the famous Yakovlev Design Bureau, the Yak-142 were laid and implemented in it. I think that this aircraft will be very successful in operation. And it is necessary to already start talking about it

Vladimir Popov
Honoured military pilot of the Russian Federation, Major General

If there are firm contractual obligations on the supply of MS-21, and in the future, joint production, then, according to Popov, there will be convenient logistics, there is no third transit country; supplies go directly through the Black Sea. And this is also a huge benefit.

Medium-haul aircraft MS-21 – © Marina Lystseva/TASS

“If joint production is established, then we transfer some of the technologies, and for them it is a benefit in the development of industry and further development of markets. After all, they have their own channels, and we have our own. That is, we are doubling our capabilities directly”, the expert notes. And then another direction opens – they will come to us for training. “Who better can train specialists than the country of origin? Relations and development of the two countries in economic terms will begin, says Popov. And here such a chain starts with the sale of one plane! And further: its maintenance, modernisation and development”.

We set ourselves the task of increasing the operational capabilities of the aircraft and its efficiency in the region of 8-10% of the existing fleet of aircraft of this class, which are now operated in the world

Konstantin Popovich
Chief Designer of the MS-21

SSJ-100: “propose, promote and learn from mistakes”

The Sukhoi Superjet 100 arrived at the exhibition not as a “newcomer”, but as an aircraft with almost three years of operating experience, this is its “gimmick”. For the first time such an approach is applied: to show not a demonstration model, but an active model, with all licences. And in case of interest by Turkish air carriers, the SSJ-100 will not require additional certification. Back in 2012, the EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency) issued a European certificate to the aircraft, which is recognised by the Turkish aviation authorities. And this is also a huge plus, according to the company “Sukhoi Civil Aircraft” (SCAC), the developer of the aircraft.

Sukhoi Superjet 100 – © Marina Lystseva/TASS

It should be noted that the SSJ-100 is a permanent participant in international exhibitions, and its visit to Turkey is the second; last year it was showcased at the Antalya air show.

The aircraft should be proposed, promoted, learn from their own mistakes. It is necessary to revise the terms of its provision to customers, offer interesting financial terms of purchase. Create a normal system of technical support. At the same time, do, as other manufacturers, not single-handedly, but with the help of partners. According to its characteristics, it is not inferior to competitors

Roman Gusarov
Editor at Avia.ru

Its main problem is, according to the expert, our inability, on the one hand, to sell the aircraft, and on the other, to make the operator feel comfortable using it. “We mean the provision of spare parts, technical support, maintenance of the life cycle, says Gusarov. If we learn how to do it, and this task is not a one-day solution, then the SSJ-100 will sell better, and the MS-21 will go on the beaten path, having from its initial stage a maintenance network”.

Presently there is a creation within the UAC a civil aircraft division, which includes precisely these two projects. Which means that everything that will be done to the SSJ-100, will also be applied to the MS-21. As originally the SSJ-100 was designated as a kind of learning platform for the modern domestic aviation industry, so it will perform this function, it will be practiced, and already all subsequent projects will go on the beaten path

Roman Gusarov
Editor at Avia.ru

“Before my eyes was the whole story of the birth of the SSJ-100 and the MS-21. I can say that, fortunately, the team that implements the MS-21 project so far copes with a good 4+ [translator’s note: in Russia, all evaluations are done on a scale of 5]. All the mistakes that were made on the SSJ-100 Project are taken into account, and so far the creators of the MS-21 managed not to step on the rake again, as they say”, the expert notes.

On the eve of the Turkish exhibition, the head of the state corporation “Rostech” Sergey Chemezov in an interview with RBK said that the aircraft could change its name to Russian, as well as the SSJ-100, it is necessary to move away from a strong dependence on foreign components.

And such steps are already being considered. “However, first the aircraft must undergo serious improvements on the basis of in-depth analysis of comments; it is necessary to make reasonable steps for import substitution, the machine must become the best it its class, and then these changes will logically lead to a new name, maybe Russian, and the rebranding procedure will follow”, the press service of the SCAC noted. Just giving a new name is not an end in itself, it needs to be created, and Rostech has good experience in this.

The MS-21 is a great prospect, and the SSJ-100 is a reality. “Through the SSJ-100 we will just continue to open doors to world markets. Why even rebrand/rename? To get its name and get away from the flaws that it drags behind it. After all, we will modernise it today, or rather, modify it”, says pilot Popov.

At the moment, the Superjet 100 aircraft manufacturer carries out a number of technological developments to improve the aircraft. “One of them will affect the increase in the fuel efficiency of the aircraft up to 4%. The fuel efficiency of the aircraft directly affects the operating costs of the airline during its operation, which is essentially important today during the panic in the hydrocarbon market”, the SCAC press service told TASS.

For the SSJ-100, Turkey is a promising dynamically developing market, and the country’s airlines require additional capacity. According to official data, the fleet of aircraft of the largest Turkish air carrier – Turkish Airlines – includes aircraft produced by the American company Boeing and the European conglomerate Airbus.

The ratio of machines produced by Airbus and Boeing in the largest fleet of the country is 49.5% (170 units) and 50.5% (174 units), respectively.

Be-200: “Requires special operating conditions”

Another machine of our aviation industry has long been eyed by Ankara – the multi-purpose amphibious aircraft of the middle class Be-200, which could be used to extinguish forest fires in Turkey. “The project is not new, but at the same time it is in a unique niche of special aircraft. And there are not that many of these machines, and they do not become obsolete with time, even over several decades”, says the chief editor of Avia.ru Gusarov of the Beriev Aircraft Company.

Be-200 amphibious aircraft – © Islam Yakut/Anadolu Agency

The undeniable advantage of the aircraft is its versatility. There are transport, passenger, search and rescue and ambulance modifications.

However, so far, despite the excellent characteristics, the demand in the world is not high, only single sales. I think that it is the way it will be, because the unique aircraft requires some special operating conditions

Roman Gusarov
Editor at Avia.ru

The expert believes that to use this amphibian, respectively, large areas of water space with sufficient depth, without sea waves, not littered and so on are necessary. “There are certain conditions for using this machine quite effectively. And in the world, probably, there are not that many such places, says Gusarov. This aircraft was made on our huge water spaces, and in this respect the Be-200 is beautiful. And the UAC is trying to develop projects for customers to use this aircraft”.

It was reported that next year it is planned to begin deliveries of the Be-200 to the United States and Chile. Negotiations on deliveries with a number of countries of Southeast Asia are at the final stage, there are also three potential customers in Latin America.

Back on the podium?

All experts agree that if Turkey buys the MS-21 and Sukhoi Superjet 100 from us, the prospects for the Turkish side and for the Middle East, as a whole is huge. “We will get favourable conditions (this is advertising) for the distribution of our aircraft around the world”, says honoured military pilot of the Russian Federation Popov. We were the second country in the world for civil aviation. Today we want to restore it. We were dropped from this pedestal… and today it turns out that Erdogan is helping us to return to it”.

In turn, the TASS military observer notes that the formation of one or another high-tech and highly intelligent technology never goes without difficulties. The same thing with the SSJ-100, created almost from scratch after the collapse of the domestic civil aviation industry. “Yes, it has certain shortcomings that will be eliminated in the near future. Even well known and hyped firms such as Boeing have aircraft that raise questions, such as the 737 MAX 8. Therefore, serious people understand this and do not fall into hysterics… says Litovkin.

The domestic civil aviation industry is developing, and in this regard, the Turkish market is as important for Russia as the Russian market is for Turkey.