Click to see the full-size map
Since this morning, Haya’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) fighters have captured a large chunk of the area controlled by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in the strategic Al-Minshyah neighborhood in the city of Daraa.
This major advance came after the SAA defenses in the neighborhood collapsed as a result of multiple HTS attacks that had taken place since the beginning of this year. According to pro-opposition sources, HTS fighters targeted a fortified SAA point this morning with a house full of explosives – a new tactic used for HTS fighters in Daraa – destroying the whole point.
Click to see the full-size image
Click to see the full-size image
Click to see the full-size image
HTS fighters took over the Al-Maqssam strategic point and two other support points around it. Furthermore, HTS was able to take over the Muaya’a school and the Oqba Bin Nafya mosque. HTS fighters reportedly destroyed a SAA 23mm gun in the Al-Suhnah neighborhood.
Click to see the full-size map
The SAA’s artillery units targeted HTS fighters gatherings in Al-Saad and Al-Mugheer neighborhoods in Daraa Al-Balad in an attempt to stop the HTS advance. The Syrian Air Force also bombed a HTS HQ in Al-Nuymah village in the Daraa countryside.
It should be noted that the SAA in Daraa has not received any real back up despite heavy HTS attacks taking place in the area for a long time. The SAA also failed to reorganize its troops and defenses using the available resources. According to sources in the SAA, there was very little coordination between the SAA and its allies in Daraa and almost no coordination at all between the command on the ground and the Syrian and Russian air forces for unknown reasons. These factors resulted in a failure on the ground.
Again other total unorganized fighting of SAA. There is not doubt this war will last almost forever ! Syria army without the capacity to destroy ISIS and its alieds (USA-OTAn-Israel), and terrorist without the capacity to destroy Syra army and its alieds (Russia, Iran, Hezbolath).
Profund and accurate analysis. Totally agree with you, my friend. Totally.
Man… don’t blame these people. They’re fighting for 6 years. Many of the best and bravest soldiers died. Many of men just fled the country.
Many of men just fled the country.
that is the problem. i would never let them back. who lest his country in trouble, has no right for life in peace.
It’ll eventually come to an end within a few years. First what we’ll see is the SDF eliminating ISIS from the Euphrates Valley with US help then they’ll move west to wipe out any remaining ISIS pockets that the SAA have held in check but lacked the resources to wipe out. The SDF will go about setting up regional governing bodies while keeping the peace so the SAA and allies can concentrate their forces against the remaining extremists groups. There’s plenty of rebel militias that don’t like the extremists any more than Assad yet may see him now as a lesser of two evils and possibly could be persuaded to join the fight against them. Bashar will have to make some concessions to them but it would be the wise thing to do since that would leave the extremists vastly outnumbered and bring an end to the fighting sooner, which is something all Syrians and the World want to see.
Which country can defeat ISIS and Al-Qaeda after fighting them for so long on multiple fronts? You have to understand that the quality of soldiers varies within any army and SAA is no exception. You can’t have your best soldiers everywhere, once Turkey, Israel, Jordan close their borders, you will see SAA clean them up quickly.
Main problem is when you start to Clean Turkey scumbags and start to get a village or two free, on the opposite side of the Country Jordan send few Townsend new rebels. If this are FSA, HTS, or ISIS it make no sense anymore, you handle this then come Qatar, after Qatar come Uncle US Trump with KSA ….
The only hope is that Iraq get quickly clean Mosul and that they get into Syria to help or also open a new front.
Can’t agree more! There were rumours that PMU would head to wherever they get sent. Sealing the border should be first then maybe opening a new front in Deir Ezzor province as you suggested.
Modern civil wars with foreign involvements will last on average about a decade – is year seven.
It’s time for using the FOAB!
They’re getting destroyed everywhere except Palmyra. What’s happening?
Not Hama or Aleppo.
ISIS has been withdrawing fighters from areas that they can no longer support to Mayadin. I think the ISIS units SW of Palmyra are trapped by the constant fighting at the crossroads south of the city. Those to the west-northwest may be filtering out thru the desert north of the city so the SAA may be biding their time to allow more to leave while they go about taking lightly defended hilltops and villages from ISIS.
Most of the skilled and dedicated SAA army soldiers and officers are long dead. More than 90,000 of them killed since late 2011. No much in terms of replenishment out there. For some reason that escapes me, most of the young Syrian skirt the duty to defeat their country form the Jihadist pest and the foreign intervention . A lot of them moved abroad as refugees and even plenty of those that stayed back, prefer to bribe the military authorities ( to the extend the can afford) rather than fight the Jihadist. And many more fight for the Jihadist. Assad certainly does not have the money to pay them to fight for him, certainly less so than the more generous Saudi/Qatar and Israel.
And let us face it, historical speaking Arabs have never made great fighters; except for limited guerrilla type of warfare and terror attacks, they have never proven any genuine military qualities. The sole exception in the whole Middle east is Hezbollah. But you can expect them to fight and win everything for Assad. There is only so much that Hezbollah can accomplish on their own with no air force or heavy military equipment.
Putin may have realized by now that there is no way he can win back Syria for Assad with this rabble quality soldiers that run for cover at the sight of the first Jihadist high on Captagon.
And what do u except after six year war vs us led coalition, saudi arabia, israel, jihadists and economic sanctions
win
From the Syrian army , I do not expect much, nor did I expect much from them 3-4 years ago when it was better manned. The Russian’s could however have easily ended this circus if they really wanted to long ago.
They have proven it the battle for Chechnya in 1999 with more inferior weapons and less motivated soldiers than they have now. That is one of the chief reasons Putin long term strategic goal in Syria eludes me. If he would bring just 2-3 battalions of Tornado/Smerch self propelled artillery, he could help SAA reach the Turkish border in less than 2 weeks. That is of course based on the assumption that the entire civilian population in that area (largely supportive of the Jihadist anyway) would be just collateral casualties of war. Why he does not do it, is a mystery to me. The Americans and the Jihadist certainly have no qualms about obliterating entire cities if their end goal dictates it.
But when the Jihadists bomb civilians nobody in the media is paying attention, because they’re heroic freedom loving moderate opposition fighters. When the Americans bomb, they bomb in ISIS territory and ISIS has a complete media blackout, so no 7 year olds twittering they’re being murdered by American bombs. When the Russians bomb even a goat shack the media cries war crimes, cause, evil Russians? It is as it is.
We have to keep in mind though, the Russians in Syria are not everywhere and propping up the Syrian army, retraining and re-equipping it has been a major tour de force for them. Russian advisors, special forces and support units have mostly been deployed around Latakia, Aleppo and Palmyra. That’s where they retrain the Syrian army back into a fighting force. And those units have seen an improved performance. Other areas have probably not seen a single Russian, let alone advisors and trainers to whip them back into shape. The Damascus area and of course Daraa. In Damascus most of the fighting is being done by the Republican Guard, which was and still is an elite force, so they can handle their own without Russian input. Whereas Daraa, it’s just at the butt end of all priorities. Both Syrian government as Russian.
Maybe some good will come out of this as Russia will dispatch some trainers and advisors to this front after all.
Russia is mainly concerned about retaining their naval base on the coast. They got geared up to step in when it appeared that the SAA was going to wind up losing Latakia. Russia probably would commit more troops and material if they could afford it. I suspect they’re supplying a shitload of other goods for the general public, industries and the agricultural sectors to keep them happy and functional. That an expense they probably can handle.
Most Arab armies were trained to ride herd over their civilians and look snappy during parades. The Soviets tried bring some up to snuff and soon discovered that most of their troops were poor peasants that only joined to get 3 hots and a cot since the pay was lousy.
They gave up on Egypt and told Assad’s daddy to leave Israel alone.
Assad’s father later on reorganized the Syrian Army into regional commands which has been causing problems since the fighting broke out. The regional commanders have say where and when the troops under their command can be deployed so many treat them as their own private army and refuse to send them elsewhere.
The Jordanians always had a professional army, thanks to British training. Hezbollah is just another extremist organization that became adept at fighting in rugged terrain at close quarters. They’ve taken considerable casualties so are reluctant to commit more fighters to the fray.
It’s been reported that Saudi Arabia et al had stopped funding the rebel groups once they began operations in Yemen. These rebel and extremist groups in Da’ra may be trying to take over territory with the ammo they have on hand then be SOL once they run out due to lacking enough money to buy sufficient amounts to continue the fight. They also have a manpower shortage due to casualties and a shortage of available men suitable for combat duty.
“It’s been reported that Saudi Arabia et al had stopped funding the rebel groups…… These rebel and extremist groups in Da’ra may be trying to take over territory with the ammo they have on hand then be SOL once they run out due to lacking…..
The Rebels are armed to the teeth, are being funded by several wealthy countries including US and their cronies. Moreover, they are turning professionals by the day.
It will be a colossal illusion to think that they will at some point in time loose support and momentum. This is still going to be a long and difficult war and as months go by, it is certainly going to be more and more difficult for SAA to win.
They may be armed to the teeth today but that won’t last long if they continue having prolonged offensives. Those Arab governments stopped funding the rebels and extremists some time ago after deciding they’ll eventually lose plus they had bigger problems in their own backyard that required additional defense spending. Those whackos in Syria are getting aid from wealthy individuals yet they have their limits too, if they see no progress.
The question is how to get Egypt into Syria, how to get them to protect a border to Jordan after a group from Hezbollah and Tiger clean Daraa and the main Border crossing. This should be the next major step what Assad should do…. Have the Jordan border clean
It seems to me that the SAA/Russians are fond of Capturing a territory but instead of creating a substantial buffer zone, they stop at the gate and content themselves with what they have achieved and then see their gain reversed. I don’t know the reason behind that, but it sure makes things difficult down the road. I see this a lot in Syria – Aleppo, Homs, Palmyra, Hama etc. Exactly same thing in Eastern Ukraine – Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Donetsk, Lugansk, Donetsk Airport. Not enough buffer areas to completely secure these areas and towns allowing for easy breach and counter attack by the Ukrainian army.
There are natural buffer zones called the countryside. Both opposing forces can’t be everywhere so leave some open ground between themselves that are patrolled on a regular basis to keep an eye on each other.
Urban warfare is different where the buffer zone may be a street or a building or room.