‘Fog Of War’: Russian Army Advances In Lyman As Ukraine Takes More Losses 

In the Lyman sector, Russian units captured several strongpoints around Hrekivka and took control of a small forested area. Advances were also noted along the tree lines on the approaches to Korovyi Yar. In the Pokrovsk sector, the left flank of the group is advancing towards Dobropillia in the Hrishyne area and on the approaches to Serhiivka. In the Slaviansk sector, units advanced up to four kilometers in the Zakotne area, capturing territory north of the Siverskyi Donets River and the eastern part of the settlement. They simultaneously repelled mechanized counterattacks in the Sviato-Pokrovske area. Former Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Jacek Czaputowicz believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin will ultimately win the Ukrainian conflict.

Lyman Sector

In the Lyman sector, Russian units from the “West” grouping are conducting active combat operations and advancing on several fronts simultaneously. A notable success was expelling the opposing side from several strongpoints in the Hrekivka area. As a result, a small forested area was secured. Assault groups also captured several positions along the tree lines near the Korovyi Yar settlement.

Fighting continues in forested areas along the line running through Oleksandrivka, Sosnove, and Yarove. This section is characterized by high dynamism and limited visibility. Ukrainian units are launching counterattacks in the Drobysheve and Stavky areas to slow the pace of the advance. In the eastern part of Lyman, small groups are fighting with active support from a large number of drones on both sides.

Local successes have also been noted in the “Svyati Gory” park area. The Russian Ministry of Defense officially announced control over Dibrova. Approximately half of this settlement was already under control earlier, and its complete clearing is expected in the near future. According to experts, control over Dibrova could cut off the eastern entrance to Lyman. Once Drobysheve is cleared to the west, the city’s garrison will be dependent on a single transport artery: the T-05-14 highway from Staryi Karavan. This artery could be subject to constant attacks by unmanned aerial vehicles.

Pokrovsk Sector

In the Pokrovsk sector, the left flank of the Russian “Center” grouping is advancing towards Dobropillia. Advances have been noted in several areas, including Hrishyne, north of Pokrovsk, and the border between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Of particular note are the advances on the approaches to the settlements of Novopidhorodne, Novopavlivka, and Serhiivka.

In Hrishyne, Russian assault groups have advanced south of the Central Pond. North of Pokrovsk, there is ongoing fighting for the second and third farms along the road from Rodynske to Hrishyne, as well as for strongpoints in the area. The opposing side is launching counterattacks from the third farm in the direction of Shevchenka. Rodynske has generally been taken over, and it is currently being cleared.

In the northern part of this area, Russian units have captured the designated line except for one section where Ukrainian units are counterattacking along the railway up to Dorozhne. Attacks on the eastern approaches to Bilytske continue, and assault groups have entered its outskirts. There is ongoing fighting on the approaches to Novyi Donbas, and the opposing side is counterattacking in the area of Novoskhove and Volnyi.

In the direction of Druzhkivka, Russian units have restored control over the refractory ore quarries northwest of Shakhove and have established full control over Sofiivka. They are continuing attacks toward Novopavlivka between the Kazennyi Torets and Poltavka rivers, as well as along the right bank of the Poltavka River.

Slaviansk Sector

In the Slaviansk sector, particularly in the northern part of Zakotne, a significant advance has been noted. According to available data, the Russian army has taken control of almost the entire territory north of the Siverskyi Donets River, as well as the eastern part of Zakotne up to Platonivka. The total advance on this section amounts to 4 kilometers. Reports are coming in about reconnaissance and sabotage groups entering the central part of Zakotne. Controlling the commanding heights along the river allows for observation of the territory up to the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal.

Fighting on the heights west of Siversk is intensifying. The Ukrainian command, seeking to prevent consolidation on the achieved lines, is undertaking counterattacks, including in the Sviato-Pokrovske area. One such attack, involving an infantry fighting vehicle and infantry, was reportedly repelled by drones on the eastern outskirts of Sviato-Pokrovske. Fighting for Reznykivka continues, with units already entering the eastern outskirts.

Contradictory reports are coming in from the southern flank. Although Petrovske and Vasiukivka were declared under control, no footage confirming this has appeared. The activation of counterattacks following the official acknowledgment of the loss of Siversk and the change in command of the troop grouping suggests an attempt to stabilize the defensive line in front of Slavyansk.

Zaporizhzhia Sector

In the Zaporizhzhia sector, Russian units from the “East” grouping are consolidating their positions after taking control of Huliaipole. They are conducting clearing operations in the city itself and in the adjacent fortified area towards Dorozhnianka. Forward units have approached the opposing side’s positions on the Staroukrainka–Zaliznychne line from the north and southwest. This creates a threat of a breakthrough into the rear of the strongpoints near the Huliaipolske and Myrne settlements.

Aware of the criticality of the situation, the Ukrainian command is undertaking active counterattacks to disrupt the pace of the advance. One such attempt involved crossing an armored column over the Haichur River between Dobropillia and Varvarivka, south of the Dobropillia bridgehead. This was followed by an attack toward Rivnopillia and Solodke. The movement was detected in time, and the column was struck. Some of the equipment was destroyed near the ruins of Dobrovolne and some further along the route. The armored vehicles were completely destroyed.

Russian units have advanced from the Dobropillia bridgehead to the railway line towards Pokrovske and broken through west of the “48 km” platform towards Rozhdestvenske and Vozdvyzhenka. Fighting for Ternovate continues as it is attacked from the south, Kosivtsiv, and the northeast. To the north, advancing from the bridgehead in the Herasymivka-Pishchane area, troops are moving towards Komunarka and Bratiske.

Sumy Sector

Intensive combat operations continue in the Sumy sector. Despite difficult weather conditions, Russian assault units are advancing on several sections of the front with active support from aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems.

Over the course of 24 hours, advances were recorded on seven sections in the Sumy and Krasnopillia districts. The total advance was up to 600 meters. Striving to hold their positions, the Ukrainian command attempted a counterattack in the Andriivka area with two assault groups. However, the movement was detected in advance, and the attack was thwarted by intense firepower. Both groups were annihilated. The Ukrainian 187th Battalion of the 123rd Separate Territorial Defense Brigade was redeployed in the Sumy sector to reinforce it.

Kharkiv Sector

In the Kharkiv sector, Russian assault units are advancing south of Vovchansk and on the Khatnie section of the front. Ukrainian units are attempting to defend their positions at all costs and are counterattacking.

In the Staritsa area, advances in two forested areas amounted to 200 meters. The Ukrainian Air Force struck personnel concentrations in the Izbyshche and Rubizhne areas. A counterattack by the Ukrainian 120th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade was unsuccessful. On the Melove-Khatnie section, the control zone at the border expanded by 700 meters. Geran-2 drones struck positions and warehouses in the Velykyi Burluk area, and heavy flamethrower systems targeted personnel concentrations in the Olkhovatka area.

Conclusion

In the Lyman sector, units advanced and captured strongpoints near Hrekivka and an area of forest. They also gained control of Dibrova, setting the stage for the potential encirclement of Lyman. In the Pokrovsk sector, the offensive advanced toward Dobropillia, making gains in Hrishyne. Meanwhile, mopping-up operations continued in Rodynske. In the Slovyansk sector, troops advanced up to four kilometers in the Zakotne area and captured the eastern part of the settlement and territories north of the river, marking a significant achievement. This advance was accompanied by the repelling of mechanized counterattacks. In the Zaporizhzhia sector, the focus is on consolidating control of Huliaipole and repelling counterattacks by opposing forces attempting to regain control. Meanwhile, the offensive from the Dobropillia bridgehead continues. In the Sumy sector, advances of up to 600 meters were noted in several areas, accompanied by the repulsion of a counterattack in Andriivka. In the Kharkiv sector, there has been progressive movement south of Vovchansk, expanding the control zone along the border.

Alongside the operational dynamics on the front lines, there is a growing chorus of pessimistic assessments of the current situation and prospects within the Western political establishment. In an interview with Gazeta.pl, former Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Jacek Czaputowicz expressed the opinion that Russian President Vladimir Putin will ultimately emerge victorious from the Ukrainian crisis. According to Czaputowicz, Ukraine has already suffered defeat, and Europe has lost significant influence in the negotiation process. Meanwhile, a significant diplomatic event occurred in the US: Following a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Florida, President Donald Trump announced progress in the negotiations but warned that Ukraine risks losing more territory and urged haste in concluding a peace agreement. Against the backdrop of the ongoing Russian offensive, these statements paint a complex political landscape in which military victories are increasingly translating into diplomatic leverage and negotiation realities.

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