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The overall international situation is extremely negative for Kiev. The outgoing administration of Joseph Biden promises to deliver the maximum number of weapons by January 20, 2025. However, this will clearly not be enough for a long-term war against Russia. The rhetoric of Donald Trump and his inner circle is clearly aimed at a peace agreement. Such an outcome of the conflict is a verdict for Vladimir Zelensky. Kiev has adapted to the realities of war. Ukraine’s ruling elite lives in war mode. There are no sponsors, competencies, or desire for peaceful reconstruction. The current president has no prospects outside the conflict. That is why we see attempts at escalation.
Future U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz rejected the endless financial support for the AFU.
“This just, kind of, forever war that we seem to be backing into. What does success look like in line with our interests? How do we end the war? Who’s at the table? How do we drive, you know, all sides to the table, and what’s the framework for- for an agreement? Those are things that we’re thinking through with his fantastic team that he’s [president-elect] assembling,” said an associate of Donald Trump.
Support for Ukraine is waning not only in the United States, but also in Europe. In the run-up to the snap parliamentary elections, the German Social Democratic Party has added to its platform a refusal to supply Kiev with Taurus missiles. The SPD is also promising voters to prevent the North Atlantic Alliance from being drawn directly into the war. The leader of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, is characterized by more aggressive rhetoric, but even he uses certain anti-Ukrainian narratives. For example, Merz has promised to drastically cut spending on aid to Ukrainian refugees in Germany. Along with the U.S., Germany is one of the main sponsors of the war in Eastern Europe.
Pope Francis also added to Vladimir Zelensky’s irritation. He prayed to the Blessed Virgin Mary for “the long-awaited peace of the Ukrainian and Russian people,” and said:
“They are brothers, cousins. May they come to an understanding! War is always defeat. Peace to the world!”
The Ukrainian government views such passages as “equating the aggressor with the victim” and has previously harshly criticized the head of the Catholic Church for “pro-Russian” remarks. Pressure from the new U.S. presidential administration and changing sentiments in Western Europe are only part of Vladimir Zelensky’s problems.
Mobilization activities are facing great difficulties. Roman Kostenko, secretary of the Defense Committee of the Supreme Council of Ukraine, admitted:
“In general, there is a tendency to reduce mobilization, and we cannot allow this under any circumstances. This will be a big problem for us”.
According to him, since September 2024, the rate of conscription of citizens for military service has decreased. The Internet is flooded with videos of forced mobilization. There is no desire among conscripts to go to the front. This inevitably leads to a decrease in the combat effectiveness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Journalist Yuriy Butusov claims that in the 155th brigade “Anna Kievskaya”, which fought near Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), deserted about 1 thousand people. Almost all the deserters were forcibly mobilized on the street.
Journalist Vladimir Boyko described the transfer of reserves from the Kherson direction to Kurakhovo. Only three out of 90 people reached the front line, the rest simply scattered on the road. This situation leads to a catastrophic lack of personnel. There is no one to defend the fortifications. The statistics of criminal cases for desertion and AWOL are truly frightening for Kiev. Boyko quotes official data: in November 2024, 18,984 criminal cases were opened under these articles. For comparison: in October – 9487, in January – 3448. Total for the war – 114 280. That is, last month left the Armed Forces of Ukraine 5.5 times more people than at the beginning of the year. The 30 days of November 2024 accounted for more than 16% of all desertions since February 24, 2022.
Vladimir Boyko believes that the real numbers are much higher:
“If in November 2024 19 thousand reports were entered into the Unified Register of Pretrial Investigations of Ukraine, it does not mean that so many servicemen deserted. It is at most half of the real number of deserters”.
Thus, we can talk about the desertion of at least 38 thousand people in November 2024. This further weakens the ability of the Ukrainian state to mobilize. It is necessary not only to make up for the losses in killed and wounded, but also to catch fugitives and replace deserters with new soldiers. In the spring of 2025, the Ukrainian army can “simply disperse,” the journalist said.
The Joseph Biden administration accuses the Ukrainian authorities of being unwilling to lower the mobilization age to 18. Kiev defends itself by claiming that the problem is not a lack of people, but a lack of weapons.
“This is not a position – this is reality. Warriors must be provided for. I personally perceive this as a desire to remove responsibility for the agreements that were previously in place,” says Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanyshina.
The presidential administration is not yet able to mobilize young people. Such a decision will eventually multiply Vladimir Zelensky’s rating by zero. Experts predict that Trump will demand from Kiev to hold presidential elections. In such conditions, the team of the current head of Ukraine is not ready to make unpopular decisions.
The combination of all these problems, of course, affects the state of the front. The main advance of the Russians is in the Southern Donetsk direction. The Russian forces have broken through to the village of Zelenovka south of Kurakhovo and are only 2 kilometers away from the “highway of life” for the Kurakhovo AFU garrison. The settlement of Novy Komar, north of Velykaya Novosyolka, was again attacked. Earlier, the Ukrainians managed to expel a Russian assault group, but it has returned. This threatens to cut off not only the Velyka Novosyolka garrison from logistics, but also Ukrainian units further south. The Russians have forced the Mokrye Yaly River and cut off the village of Makarovka from Storozhevoye. The modest results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 are quickly being lost.
The Russian Defense Ministry has reported major losses by the Ukrainian army. Especially noticeable are the losses of Western weapon systems.
As a result of decisive actions of units of the “South” group of troops, the village of Elizavetovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic was liberated.
The formations of two mechanized, airmobile and airborne assault brigades of the AFU and two territorial defense brigades were defeated in the areas of Seversk, Belogorovka, Trudovoye, Ostrovskoye, Kurakhovo and Dachne in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
The losses of the AFU were up to 345 servicemen, five vehicles, two armored combat vehicles “MaxxPro” and 155mm self-propelled artillery unit “Paladin” of the USA, 152mm gun D-20 and 122mm howitzer D-30. An ammunition depot, an Anklav-N electronic warfare station and a US AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar station were destroyed.
The units of the “Centre” group of forces seized more advantageous lines and positions and defeated the personnel and equipment of four mechanized, motorized infantry and assault brigades, two assault battalions of the AFU and one marine infantry brigade in the areas of the settlements of Shevchenko, Shcherbinovka, Novoelenovka, Novopustynka, Petrovka and Dzerzhinsk in the Donetsk People’s Republic. Nine counter-attacks of armed formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were repulsed.
The enemy lost over 440 servicemen, three armored fighting vehicles, one 152mm Msta-B howitzer, three 152mm D-20 guns, three 122mm D-30 howitzers and one Nota electronic warfare station.
In the directions of Kherson, Zaporozhye, Kupyansk, Kharkov, Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) local battles with small local advances of the Russian Armed Forces are recorded.
The Russian Defense Ministry has reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have suffered heavy losses in the Kursk direction over the past 24 hours.
In the course of the offensive operations, the units of the “North” force group defeated the formations of five mechanized and armored brigades, two airborne assault brigades, one marine infantry brigade and two territorial defense brigades of the AFU in the areas of the towns of Guevo, Lebedevka, Leonidovo, Malaya Loknya, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Novaya Sorochyna, Pogrebki, Russkoe Porechnoye and Sverdlikovo.
Operational-tactical and army aviation and artillery strikes hit enemy personnel and equipment in the areas of Kurilovka, Mirny, Basovka, Belovody, Zhuravka, Petrushovka and Popovka in the Sumy region.
During the day, the losses of the AFU amounted to up to 540 servicemen, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, one Stryker armored personnel carrier, 20 armored combat vehicles and seven vehicles were destroyed.
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in older times those 1,000 deserters would have faced the firing squad, nowadays that would be counter productive, but not punishing deserters is even more counter productive. ukraine is fubar.
people in such a firing squad will be hunted down and it will spark an uprising within afu🥶🤫👊
i tell you this. all the combined armies of nato will not be able to fight like the ukrainians fight and withstand the blows the ukrainians have taken for almost 3 years now. we saw the entire syrian army collapse in a matter of days. i don’t think a nato force would be able to hold out much longer once they started taking heavy casualties. only the ukrainians and russians fight like this.