Events In Aleppo From The Turkish Perspective

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Written by Damir Nazarov

A brief report on Turkish interests in the recent events in northern Syria.

1 – The recent fall of Aleppo to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham should be seen as an important message from Turkey to Assad. From Ankara’s perspective, Assad has gone too far when he has been resisting Erdogan’s hand of friendship for the last six months. It is extremely important for Turkey to restore diplomatic relations with Syria, primarily because of the Chinese Silk Road project. Therefore, the current escalation should be seen as something like “forcing Assad to peace”, as a Turkish journalist Hakki Ocal put it.

2 – The alliance of the Kurds from the YPG with the Zionists became the main catalyst for the capture of Aleppo in order to prevent the expansion of the influence of Kurdish separatists. Previously, the highest officials of the Turkish Republic have repeatedly warned about the plans of Zionism to destroy Syria through the support of Kurdish separatism. In contrast to this alliance, the Turks are taking the initiative to support the integrity of Syria’s sovereignty and the elimination of all forms of terrorism. Therefore, the operation to seize Aleppo from Assad’s hands is tactical for Turkey in planning a larger-scale campaign to eliminate the self-proclaimed pro-Zionist “Rojava”.

In this context, it is worth listening to the words of Turkish experts. Retired Colonel Ibrahim Keleş said that

“if the Syrians do not take control of Aleppo, there is a high probability that the PKK will take control along with Tel Rifaat.” “The developments in relations between Israel and the PKK-YPG, such as the offer of Israeli citizenship to PKK members, give us a sign that Israel has entered Syria through Kurdish fighters.”

Associate Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Yeditepe University Dr. Furkan Kaya pointed out that “the PKK has settled in Deir ez-Zor and is trying to reach the Black Sea with the help of Israel.”

3 – Expanding territories free from terrorism and dictatorship for the presence and settlement of Syrian refugees. Economic problems and anti-Syrian sentiments of the majority of the Turkish population have led to the fact that Ankara needs to solve the refugee problem as quickly as possible and prevent major chaos, especially throughout northern Syria, so that there are no more problems similar to the current ones.

On this issue of refugees, I will quote General Ahmet Rahal, who leads the moderate insurgent units from the former FSA,

“We think that in addition to the rapid fall of Assad and Hezbollah in Syria, similar events will affect the People’s Protection Units, especially in Manbij, Tel Rifat and the surrounding regions. After which the Syrian opposition can breathe a sigh of relief, and the refugees can easily return to their homes.”

The rebel general voiced the figure of 2.5 million, which almost coincides with the number of Syrians in Turkey. Thus, the arguments about refugees find logical confirmation, especially against the background of about five million refugees inside the province of Idlib, thus the Syrians simply need to be resettled as soon as possible, although along the north-east of Syria.

Now a brief explanation on the situation between Turkey and Iran amid the escalation in Aleppo.

In response to the recent events in Syria, Ismail Bekaei, the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, “warned against the resurgence of takfiri terrorist groups in Syria and called for decisive, coordinated action to prevent the spread of terrorism in the region.” A week earlier, Ali Larijani, the speaker of Iran’s Islamic Consultative Council, told local media that during his visit to Damascus, he told the Syrians that the Turks and Saudis were serious about restoring relations with Assad. For his part, Larijani stressed that Tehran welcomed diplomatic progress between the countries. Thus, two signals are coming from official Iran: coordination with all major actors and the fight against the Takfiri threat. At the same time, according to the Syrian rebels, the Iranian presence and Hezbollah were not noticed, with the exception of the Iranian military adviser – Pourhashemi, who was killed in the suburbs of Aleppo.

For their part, Turkish officials talk about the need for Syria’s sovereignty and the security of the Idlib zone, Aleppo is not mentioned. Hakan Fidan even stated that “Turkey is not involved” in the situation in Aleppo. Thus, it can be concluded that there is a process of covert coordination between the new Iranian administration and the Turkish establishment in Aleppo and the surrounding areas. For the Iranians, giving up some of their positions in Aleppo to the detriment of Assad may be revenge for his passive stance towards the Zionists, when in the midst of the battles between Hamas and Hezbollah, the Baath government silently watched what was happening. Now the Iranians can afford to silently watch the collapse of Assad’s bastions inside Syria, especially since the forces affiliated with Turkey pose no threat to Iran and Hezbollah.

Apparently, the Iranians agreed with the Turkish arguments regarding the Kurdish threat, and in return, the Turks made it clear to Tehran that support for the jihadists is situational and temporary, and that this tandem has no future. Considering the attempts to poison Julani in Idlib and the creation of a counterweight to him in the form of the “national Syrian army”.

Finally, some thoughts about Turkey and Jabhat Nusra.

For the Turks, Jabhat Nusra (Tahrir al-Sham) is not just a dead weight, it is the main enemy in terms of ideology (the Turkish view of Islam sees the jihadists-takfiris as the main enemies of political Sufism). Since 2014, pro-Turkish organizations have been trying to challenge the status of Jabhat Nusra as a leader for opposition-minded Syrians. However, common enemies (Kurds, ISIS, Assad) have made Ankara and Tahrir al-Sham temporary fellow travelers, at different times and at a certain stage. Ankara can liquidate the leaders of Nusra at any time, and in the end it will, but there are two more reasons why the Turks are waiting for a certain time, the first reason is to find an option to fill the vacuum among the Salafi community after the liquidation of Nusra, the second reason is their own security, because hundreds of thousands of Nusra supporters live in Turkey, including among the Syrians. Therefore, the Turks must first get rid of the Syrian refugees, establish a civilian council to govern the Syrian territories loyal to them, and then begin the process of eliminating the radicals.

As confirmation of the various plans of this tandem, it is necessary to show the difference in the goals of Turkey and the jihadists, if the pro-Turkish forces immediately after the fall of Aleppo hurried to open fronts against the Kurds in the direction of the northeast, then the Tahrir al-Sham detachments continue to break through to the villages and towns held by Assad’s troops. As an example pro-Turkish opposition groups called the fight against YPG – “the dawn of freedom.” The jihadists rushed toward Hama. Turkey has shown Assad and Nusra its claims on Aleppo, the fight against PKK affiliates is a priority, but this is only temporary. Turkey’s next target may be yesterday’s allies.

The Turks have repeatedly warned Julani not to create problems for the moderate opposition and not to provoke Assad’s forces in Idlib. Previously, the jihadists saw the United States as the main ally in the destruction of the Assad government, now the radicals are flirting with the Russian Federation. Yesterday’s Jihadists went so far as to call Iraqis, more than half of whom are Shiites, “brothers.” The “progressive” nature of the communication from the former stars of the “holy war” has the goal of finding a compromise for all participants in the conflict. On the other hand, whether it is possible to find a trace of Turkish intelligence here, time will tell. It is worth remembering that just half a year ago, the majority of the Syrians in Idlib called Julani “the second Assad”, accusing the leader of the Salafist rebels of dictatorship.

The end is near.

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