Europe At The Crossroads: Sink With Ukraine, Wallow With The United States Or Bow To Russia

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Amid the successes of Russian troops on the battlefield in Ukraine and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, European leaders seem to have realized the need to change their rhetoric and, potentially, their behavior in relations with Russia.

In Washington, on the contrary, they decided to pour oil on the fire. Before leaving office, Joe Biden authorized the use of long-range weapons against Russia.

The past week has been peppered with headlines in the world press about possible “negotiations” on Ukraine given the formation by US President-elect Donald Trump of his administration and cabinet. The announced lists include critics of the Ukrainian regime and the constant allocation of money to Kiev. It is indicative that many of Trump’s people slated for appointments have found themselves on the Ukrainian website “Peacemaker” (database of Kiev regime enemies) or have been severely criticized by Ukrainian government agencies. Nevertheless, the Republicans have so far tried to demonstrate a relative open-mindedness towards the parties of the conflict and expressed their desire to start constructive discussions.

“The adviser, Boris Epshteyn, who coordinated the legal defenses in Mr. Trump’s criminal cases, suggested to the president-elect that he should be Mr. Trump’s special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Mr. Epshteyn, who was born in Russia and lived there as a child, has no experience in foreign policy. He told that he had family on both sides of the conflict.” – The New York Times.

Nevertheless, Trump has not yet come into office, and the administration of acting President Joe Biden plans to allocate billions of dollars’ worth of arms and equipment to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by January 20.

“In the next two months, the administration will signal to Congress that we would like to see additional funds for Ukraine for 2025.” – Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor (Press Briefing. November 13, 2024).

A few days later, Joe Biden, realizing that he had nothing more to lose, made probably the worst decision possible: he gave the “green light” to use long-range weapons on Russian territory. Remarkably, the White House refused to comment on its permission to strike deep into Russia with ATACMS missiles.

“The officials said that while the Ukrainians were likely to use the missiles first against Russian and North Korean troops that threaten Ukrainian forces in Kursk, Mr. Biden could authorize them to use the weapons elsewhere.” – The New York Times.

Curiously, shortly before Joe Biden’s fateful statement, Chancellor Olaf Scholz made an unexpected phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin. It happened for the first time over two years after the war began. Scholz called the Kremlin on his own initiative, having coordinated this step with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron a month before. Vladimir Zelensky was also informed in advance of Scholz’s intention to contact the Russian leader directly, but this made him extremely angry and frightened.

“Olaf’s call, in my opinion, is a Pandora’s box. Now there may be other conversations, other calls.” – Vladimir Zelensky, leader of Kiev regime.

At that moment, Scholz’s call looked like a gesture of desperation, a bit later – like a “white flag” to start negotiations, but now it seems that all this was just a diversionary maneuver. Many experts have suggested that such a move could have been just a way to regain the confidence of European voters. In Germany, whose economy is going into the abyss after the cutoff of cheap Russian energy supplies, the population is starting to look at their government with hatred. Thus, back in October, Volkswagen allowed the closure of three automobile plants in Germany in order to cut costs. This jeopardizes “tens of thousands” of jobs.

“German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been criticized for his phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin not only by Ukraine but also domestically. In particular, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) faction member Peter Altmaier accused Scholz of boosting his propaganda. CDU politician Johann Wadeful expressed the opinion that Scholz called Putin solely for domestic political reasons and for self-promotion. According to politician Robin Wagener, the German Chancellor has never been as powerless as he is now.  Earlier, Bundestag deputy from the Left Party Gregor Gysi said that Scholz called Putin because of the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election”. – Die Zeit.

The situation is also cynical because Scholz’s phone call took place against the backdrop of another news about more German air defense supplies to Kiev. In other words, at the same time as there are many catchy articles about “peace talks,” military preparations for a large-scale war with Russia are under way in Europe. For example, a U.S. missile defense base has been opened in Redzikowo, Poland, and Rheinmetall’s profits are growing. The orders of Germany’s largest military equipment and armament company have reached about 20 billion euros, up 73% from 2023.

Russia is keeping a close eye on the political chaos in the United States and the economic crisis in the European Union, without being distracted by Western promises or threats. Instead, the Kremlin’s focus is now on Ukraine, where Russian military commanders are seeking to build on battlefield successes and refine their strategy ahead of a possible winter campaign. This can be seen in the unprecedented combined missile and air strike on Ukrainian infrastructure on Nov. 17.

“Russian drone tactics continue to evolve. Now, more powerful missiles often follow close behind as air defences are exhausted by the drones. The most destructive are the ballistic and cruise missiles that fly many times faster than the drones, which buzz loudly and can be tracked by the naked eye. Even the decoys can be useful to Russia. One decoy with a live-feed camera allows the aircraft to geolocate Ukraine’s air defences and relay the information to Russia in the final moments of its mechanical life.” – The Independent.

Russia has been making consistent territorial gains for several months now, while the Ukrainian armed forces are trying hard to minimize losses and maintain morale. Kiev is unsuccessfully convincing its allies that with more military assistance the Ukrainians will be able to turn the tide on the battlefield. Even Britain, a staunch ally of Ukraine, has stopped supplying Kiev with Storm Shadow missiles. Other European capitals are fighting for the survival of the European Union as a viable entity and they are only supplying Ukraine with what makes money for their own military-industrial complex. As for the United States, it seems that for this country the problems of Kiev and its puppet authorities have ceased to be of any relevance apart from the new negotiations with Moscow on strategic stability in the world.

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