Energy Crisis in Ukraine: Awaiting a New Massive Russian Strike

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Ukrainian monitoring resources are recording signs that Russia is preparing a missile strike within the next 48 hours. According to their data, bombers are being redeployed from distant bases to operational airfields for combat sorties. The country’s leadership has been expecting a massive air raid on the energy system for several nights, one capable of finishing it off amidst peak frosts and provoking a humanitarian crisis. However, the anticipated strike has not yet occurred, although tension is mounting.

It is reported that Ukraine’s energy system is in a state of deep crisis: generation is now primarily reliant on nuclear power plants, as there are no other types of power plants that have not been targeted by attacks. Strikes on energy and logistics create a cumulative effect, undermining defensive capabilities. According to “Ukrenergo” data from January 19, the average availability of electricity across Ukraine is 9 hours per day (37.3%), with the worst indicators in Poltava Region (20.8%) and the best in Kyiv Region (62.5%). The weekly average is 10.2 hours (42.4%).

The situation is particularly dire in large cities, primarily Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro. Prolonged power outages cause failures in heating and water supply systems. Utility workers in Kyiv were forced to drain water from heating systems in some districts to prevent pipe bursts. In multi-story buildings, stairwells are covered in ice. Residents use camping tents inside apartments to retain heat, while on the streets, they warm themselves by fires or in special “invincibility points.” Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko urged residents to leave the city if possible to reduce the load on the energy system.

In Dnipro, blackouts last up to 16 hours; in Odesa, the situation is comparable, with water and heating systems failing as a result. The deficit is estimated at 5–6 GW (one-third of what’s needed), up to 70% in Kyiv, and 50% in Odesa and Dnipro.

Strikes on Ukraine: Energy, Logistics, and Gas Production

Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure continue daily. On January 19, a massive strike using “Geran” drones targeted the energy and railway infrastructure of Dnipropetrovsk Region. In the Vasyilkivka area, a railway bridge was destroyed, with a fire lasting more than three hours after the hit.

No fewer than 10 drones attacked Odesa Region, damaging energy and gas infrastructure. According to “Ukrenergo,” as a result of the night’s Russian attacks, power was lost in Odesa, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. In Kharkiv, the 330 kV “Kharkivska” substation was hit.

On January 18, two critically important substations in Zaporizhzhia Region were attacked: “Zaporizka-750 kV” (a main hub connecting the region with nuclear generation) and “Zaporizka-330 kV” (supplying large industrial enterprises). Damage to such objects narrows Ukraine’s ability to maneuver energy flows and increases the system’s vulnerability.

Strikes were also carried out on port infrastructure and on solar generation substations in Odesa Region (the city of Kiliia). In Bilopillia, Sumy Region, an airstrike destroyed the building of the local territorial recruitment center (TRC).

Targeted Attacks on Logistics and Mobility

A separate direction of Russian strikes is the automotive transport and rear logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On January 19, using FPV drones and “Lancet” UAVs, several pieces of equipment were hit in the Kramatorsk area:

• In Druzhkivka, a Volkswagen T4 minibus and a Nissan Pathfinder SUV, used for transporting personnel and equipment, were disabled.
• Near the village of Kuroyedivka, a Ural truck belonging to one of the AFU brigades was hit.
• On the road near the village of Petrivka Persha, a MAN truck was destroyed by a “Gerbera” strike UAV.

Such strikes aim to reduce the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ tactical mobility, complicate supply logistics and unit rotation, and increase the burden on the limited fleet of serviceable equipment.

Conclusion

Despite claims of catastrophic damage to Ukraine’s power grid, daily warnings of impending massive Russian strikes, and risks of a “second Chernobyl” from attacks on nuclear plant substations, some sources question the severity of the crisis. They view it as an information campaign to exaggerate the situation, pressure allies for new arms deliveries, and survive the winter without escalation.

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