Conflict In Ukraine Accelerated India’s Global Rise

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 Moscow could support India as a mediator but Kiev shows no interest.

Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher

The international order maintains exclusively Western features, but this is quickly disappearing because of the impact the conflict in Ukraine has had in advancing multipolarity. In the context of a rapidly changing global system, India is set to gain more so than any other country as it was presented with an opportunity to consolidate its importance in the international community, one that it took full advantage of.

A “world order which is still very, very deeply Western,” as Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said in an interview with the New York Times, is being hurried out of existence by the impact of the war in Ukraine and is being replaced by a world of “multi-alignment” where countries will choose their own “particular policies and preferences and interests.”

Since the conflict in Ukraine began on February 24, New Delhi has refused to align itself with Washington and Brussels, despite pressure, to condemn the Kremlin’s actions and impose sanctions. Instead,India turned Russia into its main oil supply.

Almost 1.4 billion people live in India and it is possible that it will soon surpass China as the most populous country on the planet. For this reason, the South Asian country desperately needs cheap energy sources, such as those provided by Russia, to sustain an annual growth rate of 7% and keep millions of citizens out of poverty.

Jaishankar stressed that it is time for Europe to end its idea that its own problems are also the problems of the world. He also highlighted that Western economic sanctions against Russia have made energy, fertiliser, and food more expensive, with a negative impact especially felt on poor countries in Africa and Asia.

“I would still like to see a more rules-based world,” Jaishankar said. “But when people start pressing you in the name of a rules-based order to give up, to compromise on what are very deep interests, at that stage I’m afraid it’s important to contest that and, if necessary, to call it out.”

The foreign policy of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to establish partnerships with countries that have shared interests, particularly those that do not impose the expectation of New Delhi being fully aligned with the West.

As the New York Times highlighted on the last day of 2022: “India may have the power to tilt the balance toward an order dominated by democratic pluralism or by repressive leaders” – a Western liberal reference meaning that India can tilt global balance in favour of the West (“democratic pluralism”) or the Global South (“repressive leaders”).

At the same time, the spill over from the conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, has fuelled India’s need to strengthen its corporations to reduce risks in global supply chains.India, The New York Times analysed, is relatively protected against global market fluctuations due to its strong domestic economy, which allows it to provide strength abroad.

Thus, projections estimate that India will become the third largest economy on the planet by 2030, only surpassed by the US and China.Part of this huge economic drive is India’s entry into the IT sector and its huge population becoming avid internet users.

A report published on January 2, 2023 by market intelligence firm Redseer Strategy Consultants found that India has the second largest internet user base in the world and is home to 780 million internet users. India’s Internet gross merchandise value (GMV) will grow to about $1 trillion by 2030, equivalent to $5 trillion in public and private market cap. This will also make India a leading country in terms of consumption as the Middle Class continues to grow.

In this scenario, moreover, there is no indication that India is interested in cutting its relations with Russia, which has provided the country with weapons, agricultural development, and technology for decades.Meanwhile, the US traditionally supports India’s regional rival, Pakistan.

None-the-less, Washington is still desperate to bring India under its complete sphere of influence.

US State Department spokesman Ned Price said on January 6 that India can be among the countries that can have a role in diplomacy to end the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict even though New Delhi and Washington may not see eye to eye on policy issues.

“We do believe that countries like India, countries that have a relationship with Russia and with Ukraine, may be in a position to help bring about dialogue and diplomacy that could one day put an end to this war,” Price said at the briefing for foreign correspondents.

“We have been in regular, close contact with India regarding what we can do to hold Russia accountable and to impose additional costs on Russia for its war. We may not always share precisely the same policy approaches, but we both share a commitment to upholding a rules-based international order that respects territorial integrity and sovereignty,” he added, while downplaying differences between the two countries.

None-the-less, although it is likely that Moscow will support India as a potential mediator, there is little indication that Kiev is interested in ending the war. At the same time, the war allowed India to take advantage of cheap oil prices, thus projecting its own rapid development, so-much-so that Washington now has no choice but to consider India as a serious global player.

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