Click to see full-size image. (U.S. Central Command)
The administration of President Donald Trump is preparing military options for renewed strikes on Iran that could be launched before the November 3 United States midterm elections, according to American media, as officials weigh whether a new offensive could produce a battlefield and political gain before voters go to the polls.
The White House has asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be used ahead of the election, The Atlantic reported on October 7, citing two administration officials.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is compiling the plans, but their scale, targets and timing remain under debate and no final decision has been made.
Axios reported the same day that the Pentagon had instructed CENTCOM to complete preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran.
U.S. officials said the order did not include a launch date, while U.S. and Israeli sources said operations could begin before the American elections. The plans could include extensive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and other strategic targets.
The possibility of renewed fighting comes as the U.S. has gone several weeks without striking Iran. Trump has repeatedly suggested that the war could resume after the election, but The Atlantic reported that he told aides and advisers that a strike before the vote remained an option.
In remarks last week, Trump said the U.S. would win the war “right after the election,” while adding, “Maybe before the election.”
The administration appears to see a limited operation as a way to demonstrate progress, strengthen Trump’s position and potentially improve the political outlook for Republicans, particularly if it could be followed by lower energy prices.
Officials supporting the idea acknowledge, however, that a limited strike alone would not force Iran back to negotiations, restore normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or quickly reduce gasoline prices.
The military buildup gives the planning greater significance. The Associated Press reported on October 8 that roughly 9,000 additional U.S. troops were being sent to the Middle East aboard a group of ships, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and an amphibious readiness group.
The deployment could bring three American aircraft carriers into the region by the end of October, raising the number of U.S. sailors and Marines there to more than 20,000.
At the same time, Washington is continuing indirect negotiations with Tehran, with significant differences remaining over a ceasefire, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and conditions for reopening the waterway.
The administration has increasingly argued that Iran has been weakened by military and economic pressure, while Iranian leaders have shown little willingness to accept a settlement on U.S. terms.
Iranian retaliation would be a central risk of any renewed campaign. Axios reported that Israeli officials expect Tehran to respond with large-scale missile attacks against Israel, while U.S. officials have warned that American troops and Gulf allies would face renewed danger.
A new offensive could also further disrupt oil supplies and push energy prices higher, potentially worsening one of the main economic problems already hurting Republicans ahead of the election.
The administration nevertheless appears to be working from the belief that enough additional military pressure could force Iran to concede and allow Trump to claim that the war had effectively been brought to an end before the elections.
That outcome remains highly unlikely. Iran has repeatedly responded to U.S. strikes with attacks of its own, and the conflict has already lasted far longer than the administration originally expected. Another U.S. offensive is therefore more likely to trigger renewed Iranian retaliation and prolong the fighting than to achieve Washington’s objectives in time for the November vote, potentially carrying the war into the elections and beyond.
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ah yes, do exactly what most americans don’t want you to do, because you think your voters suddenly change their opinions. just more price hikes for fuel, exactly what the civilians are waiting for.