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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
United States President Joe Biden, who will seek re-election next year, obtains only 44% of the voting intentions, the same as the favourite to be the Republican candidate, former president Donald Trump. The latest figures from the most recent YouGov/Yahoo News survey represent a marked setback for Biden, who in the same poll had 47% voting intention just last month, with Trump obtaining 41%.
According to the survey, of the 1,636 US adults polled from September 14 to 18, Biden and Trump would now tie at 44% apiece if the 2024 election were held today. Another 7% remain undecided, while 4% say they would not vote.
It should be remembered that recently, Biden has been hit by a series of scandals and bad economic news that have clouded his prospects for remaining in the White House after January 2025.
Among them, the Republican caucus in the House of Representatives announced in mid-September the beginning of an investigation for a political trial against the president due to his alleged links to illegal businesses as a lobbyist for his son Hunter Biden, who in recent days was charged with lying when purchasing a weapon. In addition, a conviction for tax evasion against him is expected in the coming weeks.
Responses to other questions in the YouGov/Yahoo News survey should also worry the White House, which is preparing to spend $25 million in the coming weeks on an avalanche of television and Internet advertising to overcome the president’s low numbers.
The survey reflects that 77% of Americans see Biden’s age as a problem, and only 27% believe he is fit to serve another term. Furthermore, 38% of those surveyed defined Biden and his family as “corrupt”, and only 34% approve of the president’s management of the economy.
Biden’s poor approval numbers and handling of the economy are a worrying scenario for the Democratic Party just over a year before the next elections. The Biden administration believes that the problem with the popularity numbers lies in the fact that they have not communicated its supposed achievements to the population, which is why it is now preparing to spend $25 million to spread propaganda. The reality is very different, and no positive spin can be made to explain the declining living situation of everyday Americans.
The second quarter of 2022 witnessed a dip, with the nominal at $24.85 trillion, but the second quarter of 2023 experienced an increase, reaching $26.80 trillion in current dollar GDP. Although the unemployment rate was slightly higher at 3.8% in the past month, it remains lower than the 3.7% rate reported a year ago.
Despite these supposed signs of economic improvement, Americans are still dissatisfied and do not believe the headlines or statistics. Instead, they judge the performance of the economy based on things that are more easily felt, such as the fact that the average price of a dozen eggs increased by 38% between January 2022 and May of this year, white bread up by 25%, and a whole chicken up by 18%. In addition, the retail price of gasoline has increased 63% since January 2021, the month Biden took office. Groceries increased by 3% compared to the previous year.
The YouGov/Yahoo News survey also found that Biden’s approval rating was 30% — slightly above its all-time low of 35% recorded in August 2022. Despite the supposed positive economic indicators, just 34% of Americans approve of how Biden handles it. Only 8% of Americans believe the current state of the economy is “very good,” while a substantial 35% describe it as “very bad.”
Alarmingly, the US gross national debt reached over $33 trillion for the first time. The current deficit stood at $1.5 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2023. This marks an increase of $0.6 trillion compared to last year.
The knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine caused some of this economic catastrophe in the US. It must be noted that the decline started well before Russia launched its special military operation, and rather, the war accentuated the problems. Although the end of the war in Ukraine would alleviate much of the economic pressure in the US, the Biden administration has decided that it would rather continue pumping money into the country that has become nothing more than a financial black hole with no prospects of turning back the Russian army. It is under this context that Trump’s popularity continues to rise despite a concocted media effort to once again tarnish his image.
americans vote their wallets which means biden will not get the majority of votes it remains to be seen how this will effect election results
i do not understand why writing and posting this, it is a waist of time. the system is rigged. if you do not understand this now, you will never get it.