Battle Over Chagos. Trump Wins First Round Of Confrontation With China

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The story of the transfer of the Chagos Archipelago by the British authorities to the sovereignty of Mauritius is nearing its conclusion. On October 3, 2024, London announced that an agreement had been reached with Port Louis for the return of the Indian Ocean archipelago. From 1715 to 1810, the Chagos Archipelago was in French possession. After Napoleon I Bonaparte’s defeat in the war, Paris agreed to transfer the archipelago to the control of the British Crown. At the same time, Mauritius was colonized by the natives of Foggy Albion.

It was not until 1968 that the country was granted independence as part of a major decolonization campaign. Three years earlier, in 1965, the British had separated the Chagos Archipelago from Mauritius. The so-called British Indian Ocean Territory was created. Incidentally, this was in violation of United Nations Declaration 1514 “On the Granting of Independence to Colonial Countries and Peoples”. It obliged the metropolises not to artificially divide their former colonies.

Great Britain did not want to part with Chagos for a long time because of its favorable geographical location. Situated in the middle of the Indian Ocean, the archipelago allows the use of air and naval power to control vast areas through which the world’s trade routes pass. Between 1967 and 1973, the British actually carried out an ethnic cleansing of the population to get rid of civilians on Chagos territory. A military base was established on the islands. But the international pressure on Britain was too great. In 1973, the British made Chagos available for a U.S. naval base. The Diego Garcia base can accommodate a large number of warships. There is also an airfield to service the Boeing B-52 Stratofortress. This type of aircraft is capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

In spite of its cooperation with Washington, London has had constant disputes with Mauritius in international courts. The African state demanded the return of Chagos. In 2015, the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in favor of Mauritius. Decisions by the UN General Assembly, the International Criminal Court and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea followed. Finally, exhausted by years of struggle, Britain decided to part with one of its last colonies. In exchange for the transfer of the Chagos Archipelago to the sovereignty of Mauritius, London obtained confirmation of the right to a military base for 99 years.

Keir Starmer’s Chagos handover reeks of corruption. The British press is actively discussing the scandalous links between the British Prime Minister and the Mauritian lobbyist Philip Sands. This man has strong friendly relations with Starmer and at the same time is an officially hired legal advisor of the African state. Sands has been lobbying for the transfer of Chagos to Mauritius since 2010 and has made no secret of it. The lobbyist is also listed as a co-founder of the law firm Matrix Chambers. Another co-founder of the firm, Richard Hemer, is currently advising Keir Starmer’s government on all legal matters. Strange coincidences, don’t you think?

The hasty decision of the British authorities caused the displeasure of the United States, which maintains a significant military contingent in the archipelago. The administration of Joseph Biden criticized the actions of the United Kingdom behind the scenes. On November 13, 2024, the Independent wrote about the intention of US President-elect Donald Trump to block the deal. “Trump has received a UK-sourced briefing on Chagos and has asked the presidential transition team to work with the Pentagon to get legal advice. He has expressed a stance in principle to object to the deal if elected on the advice of the Department of Defence based on their global security posture,” the source told the newspaper. The new presidential administration fears possible Chinese infiltration of the archipelago. Trump wanted to make sure that Beijing could not profit from the decolonization of Chagos.

The Americans are indeed right to be concerned. Chinese economic penetration in Mauritius is very serious. The PRC ranks first in the African country’s foreign trade. The trade turnover between Mauritius and China (including Hong Kong and Macau) for 2023 amounted to 1 billion dollars. This compares to $454 million with the United States and $269 million with the United Kingdom (a total of $723 million). China’s foreign direct investment in Mauritius exceeded 1.5 billion dollars in 2022. In the near future, we can expect to cross the $2 billion threshold. Up to half of all international trade passes through the Indian Ocean. The Chinese desire to protect their trade routes is understandable. There is already a precedent for Chinese expansion. In 2016, the PRC established a military base in Djibouti. There are currently about 2,000 soldiers and service personnel stationed there.

On April 1, 2025, the Telegraph reported that Donald Trump had approved the deal to transfer Chagos to Mauritius. According to the newspaper’s sources, the Americans have secured changes to the treaty. It is not yet possible to say exactly what the changes will be. However, given the example of the recent text of the agreement on rare earth metals with Ukraine, it can be assumed that the White House was not particularly shy about the wording. For the U.S., any Chinese penetration of a strategically important region is unacceptable. It is possible that a “cap” will be placed on Chinese investment in Port Louis and that economic cooperation with Beijing will be limited. The UK has already promised to invest £18 billion in the Mauritian economy for the Diego Garcia lease. It is also likely that the agreement will include a ban on Chinese military or police installations in the African country.

The battle for Chagos has been won tactically by the Americans. But it cannot be said that America is winning the war with China. Chagos is just a particular case. Africa as a whole is rapidly withdrawing from US influence, not to mention Britain, France and other NATO countries. In 2003, China was the main trading partner of 18 African countries out of 54; by 2025, it is already 52. For 2024, trade between Africa and the PRC totaled $292 billion dollars. This is 3.5 times more than between the Dark Continent and the US. Only Swaziland and Lesotho are not covered by extensive Chinese influence. And yet, Donald Trump’s tariff policy is likely to lead to the “Chinesization” of these two countries as well.

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