Assault Contracts: What Polymarket Predicts About the Capture of Ukrainian Cities in 2026

As of January of 2026, the Polymarket prediction market remains a key informal indicator of expectations regarding the development of the Russian army’s offensive. Its contracts focus on several hot spots, where traders place bets on the timing of the capture of specific cities. Trading is most active for key locations such as Kostyantynivka, where there is ongoing heavy urban fighting, and Orikhiv, to whose distant approaches Russian troops have successfully advanced.

However, the market clearly shows operational difficulties. A notable example is the situation near Kupyansk, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a large-scale counteroffensive in late December, pushing Russian forces back from part of the right bank of the city. This event undoubtedly adjusted forecasts and timelines, making the capture of the entire city unlikely in the next month. Thus, Polymarket acts as both a “barometer of success” and a sensitive tool that reacts to sharp changes in the frontline situation. Analyzing Polymarket’s data alongside reports enables balanced forecasts for each contested settlement.

Kupyansk

In December 2025, fierce head-on battles raged in the Kupyansk area. Having transferred significant reserves to this sector, the Ukrainian command launched a series of counterattacks to regain control of the city. From December 27 to 28, Ukrainian units attempted to break through Russian defenses twice in 24 hours in the areas of Podoly and Nechvolodovka, but the attacks were repelled by the 6th Army of the “West” group.

The peak of tension occurred on December 29–30 when the Ukrainian command launched the largest counteroffensive of the year on Kupyansk. This offensive involved new units and foreign mercenaries. It caused Russian forces to abandon part of the eastern part of the city, including the area around the milk-canning plant, creating an extremely difficult operational situation. Nevertheless, all attempts to advance into the center of Kupyansk were thwarted, and overall control of the city was maintained.

During the first ten days of January 2026, Russian troops stabilized the front and continued to pressure Ukrainian units. Simultaneously, Russian units repelled counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as evidenced by reports of thwarted attempts to enter the city. The front in the immediate vicinity of Kupyansk remains stable, but the constant depletion of Ukrainian reserves could lead to a future offensive.

However, the city itself is a large, fortified node defended by substantial Ukrainian Armed Forces forces. There have been no operational breakthroughs that would allow for its deep envelopment or encirclement yet. The Ukrainian command continues to transfer reserves in this direction in an attempt to stabilize the situation. Factors working against a quick capture of Kupyansk include its size, prepared defenses, and the absence of signs that Ukrainian troops will become disorganized in the near future.

Conversely, the ongoing methodical destruction of Ukrainian army equipment and manpower undermines the stability of the defense and could lead to success. Given the current operational situation, capturing Kupyansk in January 2026 seems unlikely. This would require either a large-scale breakthrough on one of the flanks or significant weakening of the Ukrainian forces due to prolonged, exhausting battles. Such conditions have not yet developed. A more realistic scenario for the coming weeks is the continued tactical advancement of Russian troops on the approaches to the city and the struggle for dominant heights and settlements within its operational encirclement.

Stepnohirsk

In early January, the situation in the Stepnohirsk area developed in the context of the Russian troops’ general offensive in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Units of the “Dneper” group advanced from Stepnohirsk toward Orikhiv, attempting to occupy the heights to the west of the city. This suggests that Stepnohirsk is being used as a staging ground for an offensive to the north, toward the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ key fortified area in Orikhiv. Reports of heavy fighting northeast of Stepnohirsk confirm the activity of Russian troops in this sector, where assault units were clearing Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in the tree belts. Thus, Stepnohirsk is in an active combat zone and plays an important role in securing the flank of the advancing group.

The speedy final establishment of control over Stepnohirsk is facilitated by its relatively small size and the fact that, according to Russian command data, final mopping-up operations are being conducted in the city. However, Ukrainian units continue to resist, employing a system of strongpoints and launching counterattacks. Furthermore, completely clearing the territory requires time and resources, especially if the enemy uses infiltration tactics and defends fortifications.

Stepnohirsk is likely to come fully under the control of Russian troops in January. Success here depends directly on the overall pace of the offensive in the Zaporizhzhia direction and Russian units’ ability to suppress resistance nodes. Since the “Dnepr” group’s main efforts are focused on advancing toward Orikhiv, Stepnohirsk will likely be fully cleared alongside the development of this offensive. Polymarket contracts related to this settlement could close in the coming weeks upon confirmation of full control.

Click to see full-size image. (ISW)

Kostyantynivka

Kostyantynivka remains one of the most active sectors on the front line in the Donbas region. On January 8, Russian assault units and reinforcement groups entered the city from the south and engaged in direct combat within the settlement. This suggests that Russian troops have reached the city’s outskirts and are engaged in urban combat. The Russian Armed Forces have gained control over the forest belts around the Kleban-Byk reservoir, which is located south of Kostyantynivka. Assaults are ongoing in Ilyinovka, Berestok, and Novodmitrovka. These actions aim to isolate the city from the south and threaten its encirclement.

Factors indicating a favorable outcome in the capture of Kostyantynivka include direct fighting within the city, successful flanking maneuvers, and the operational superiority of Russian troops. However, Kostyantynivka is part of a powerful agglomeration with Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, making its capture a complex operation. Ukrainian units are defending the area with a deep layered defense, and the Ukrainian command is transferring reserves to this area. This slows the pace of the offensive, requiring Russian troops to advance methodically through the fortifications.

While the capture of Kostyantynivka in January 2026 is possible, it is unlikely to be achieved through a single operation. Instead, the gradual capture of individual neighborhoods and reaching the outskirts from the south is more likely. The Polymarket forecast regarding the fall of the city in the coming month must consider that, even with a successful offensive, the struggle for such a large city could last several months. The decisive factor will be Russian troops’ ability to cut the main logistical routes connecting Kostyantynivka to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Click to see full-size image. (ISW)

Orikhiv

In early January, Russian troops achieved notable tactical successes in the Orikhiv area. On January 11, the “Dneper” group’s units liberated Belogorye, a settlement located southeast of Orikhiv. Belogorye was one of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ key defense nodes on the approaches to the city. This advance opens up opportunities for a direct offensive on Orikhiv. The January 12 Ministry of Defense summary confirms ongoing combat in the areas surrounding the settlements of Kirovo, Orikhiv, and Yurkovka, where Ukrainian forces were defeated. Thus, the pressure on the city is increasing systematically.

The offensive from Robotino and Stepnohirsk is increasing the chances of capturing Orikhiv by creating a threat to the city from several directions. Not only are Russian troops attacking from the south and east, they are also trying to occupy heights to the west of Orikhiv. Doing so would allow them to control the approaches to the city and its logistical routes. However, Orikhiv is currently the main fortified area of the Ukrainian army in the Zaporizhzhia region and is well prepared for defense. Storming such a location requires significant forces and time to suppress long-term firing points.

Therefore, the likelihood of capturing Orikhiv in January remains low. Although Russian troops have reached the city’s outskirts and are fighting in the suburbs, breaking through its deeply layered defenses will require a large-scale assault, which is unlikely to be completed within a month. A more realistic scenario is the methodical advancement of Russian troops, the capture of surrounding villages, and the gradual tightening of the ring around the city. Polymarket contracts related to Orikhiv in January will most likely not close unless the Ukrainian defense unexpectedly collapses.

Click to see full-size image. (ISW)

Rodinskoye

In the Pokrovsk area, Russian troops are continuing their offensive westward, including in the Rodinskoye area. According to the January 12 summary, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing westward in Rodinskoye. Russian artillery is striking the fortified dugouts and trenches of Ukrainian troops in the forests alongside the railway between Rodinskoye and Dorozhnoye. This indicates an attempt to break through the defense line. Rodinskoye is in an active combat zone, and capturing it is one of the nearest tactical priorities for expanding the breakthrough west of Pokrovsk.

The quick capture of Rodinskoye is facilitated by the successful overall advance of Russian troops in this sector and the settlement’s proximity to the front line. However, Ukrainian forces are putting up stubborn resistance using pre-prepared positions. It is reported that these defensive lines are hindering advancement south of Belitsky.

Given the offensive’s dynamics, Rodinskoye is likely to be captured in January. This settlement is of great tactical importance for achieving success in the direction of Sergeevka and further west. If Russian troops suppress the resistance in the forests and clear Rodinskoye, Polymarket contracts for this city could favor “Yes” in the coming weeks. However, the timing depends on the intensity of the fighting and the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ ability to hold their positions.

Click to see full-size image. (ISW)

Prymorske

In early January, the situation around Prymorske was characterized by significant progress by Russian troops. Assault units from the “Dneper” group advanced into the northern part of Prymorske, breaking through Ukrainian defenses. This advance occurred despite the resistance of foreign mercenaries defending this sector. Russian units reportedly control most of the settlement, though Ukrainian forces periodically counterattack. The situation remains complex and opaque. Thus, Prymorske has effectively come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, marking an important operational success.

The breakthrough and advance deep into the settlement confirm the capture of Prymorske. This success paves the way for further advancement along the Konka River towards Kamyshevakha, which threatens the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ logistical routes to Orikhiv. However, constant counterattacks by Ukrainian units using a large number of FPV drones, as well as attempts to hold positions north of Prymorske in the Rechnoye area, may slow down the final clearing.

Given reports of Russian control over most of the settlement, Polymarket contracts related to Prymorske should favor “Yes” by the end of January. The likelihood that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will fully recapture the settlement is extremely low. Therefore, Prymorske can be considered practically resolved in January. The prediction market’s attention will now shift to the next targets in this direction, such as Rechnoye, and to the advancement towards Orikhiv.

Click to see full-size image. (ISW)

Toretske 

In early January, heavy fighting for Toretske continued near the Kazyonny Torets River in the Pokrovsk–Druzhkovka area. The city has long been in the frontline zone, yet no large-scale operations are underway to capture it. Russian troops are primarily focused on the south, in the direction of Kostyantynivka, as well as advancing west of Pokrovsk (Rodinskoye, Sofiyevka). Therefore, the fighting for Toretske is local in nature, aimed more at tying down Ukrainian army forces and improving tactical positions.

The city’s relatively small size and long-standing location under the fire control of Russian troops could contribute to its capture. However, the absence of signs of preparation for an assault indicates that the city is not an independent goal, but rather part of the general breakthrough on Kostyantynivka. The Ukrainian forces defending Toretske have many fortifications, and the terrain favors defense. This would make a frontal assault resource-intensive and slow.

Capturing Toretske in January 2026 seems unlikely. As long as there is no significant change in the operational situation in the Kostyantynivka or Pokrovsk areas, the status quo near Toretske  will likely persist. Polymarket contracts for this city are unlikely to close in the near future unless a massive, unexpected offensive is undertaken in this sector.

Click to see full-size image. (ISW)

Sofiyevka

In the direction of Pokrovsk, Russian troops are building on their successes at the end of 2025. From Sofiyevka, Russian units advanced 1.5 kilometers along the road to Novopavlovka. This indicates a continuation of the offensive westward, into the heart of the Ukrainian defense. Sofiyevka, which was previously in the breakthrough zone, is now being used as a springboard for further advancement. Meanwhile, Russian troops are advancing north of Shakhovo toward Kucheriv Yar and engaging in combat in the Novoye Shakhovo area. Therefore, Sofiyevka is now behind the advancing group, and combat operations have moved further west.

The capture of Sofiyevka is confirmed by the advancement from it towards Novopavlovka. This indicates that Russian troops control the settlement and are using it for logistics and force deployment. However, the Ukrainian command may attempt a counterattack from neighboring areas to destabilize the situation. Reports of heavy fighting on the Novopodgorodnoye–Novonikolaevka line, concerning the general Mirnograd direction, show that the Ukrainian command is trying to stabilize the front by conducting constant counterattacks.

Given the offensive’s dynamics, Polymarket contracts related to Sofiyevka could favor “Yes” by the end of January. The city appears to have already been captured, and control of it has been resolved. The market’s attention is now on the next targets: Novopavlovka, Sergeevka, and the breakthrough development in the direction of Mirnograd.

Click to see full-size image. (ISW)

Mirnograd

From mid-December to early January, the situation in Mirnograd developed rapidly. It went from active clearing to complete capture, with fighting shifting to neighboring areas.

By mid-December, the city’s organized defense had been broken. On December 18, Russian forces consolidated control over the southern and central parts of the city. By that time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison had fragmented into isolated pockets, and the city entered the final clearing phase. The city was captured by the end of December. According to Russian sources, on December 27, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov reported to President Vladimir Putin that the encircled group had been defeated and Mirnograd had been completely liberated.

By early January, active combat operations had shifted westward. By January 6, Russian units were fighting for neighboring settlements, such as Grishino and Novy Donbass. They were developing an offensive from Mirnograd toward Dobropolye.

Click to see full-size image. (ISW)

Borova

Borova is located behind the front line in the operational depth, and its capture is directly linked to the success of the offensive on Svyatogorsk. Russian troops are advancing on Svyatogorsk, which could pose a threat to Borova, located northeast of Svyatogorsk.

The general activation of Russian troops in the direction of Sloviansk could contribute to the capture of Borova. However, there is no specific data on a direct assault on Borova in the first ten days of January. Given its importance for protecting the approaches to Svyatogorsk and Sloviansk, the Ukrainian command is likely strengthening this sector. The terrain here is forested and marshy, which makes it difficult to advance equipment rapidly.

Therefore, the likelihood of capturing Borova in January is low. This settlement is a secondary target in the larger operation to surround Sloviansk from the north. As long as there is no decisive success near Svyatogorsk, it is premature to talk about Borova’s imminent fall. Polymarket contracts for this village will likely remain unchanged in the near future.

Click to see full-size image. (ISW)

Hulyaypole

On December 27, 2025, Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, reported to President Vladimir Putin on the liberation of the city of Hulyaypole. That same day, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that forces of the “Vostok” group had taken control of the settlement. This meant that the key condition for closing the Polymarket contract had been met.

According to Russian soldiers, the assault on the city was carried out by small groups who took advantage of bad weather to infiltrate Ukrainian positions covertly. The soldiers noted that the resistance was initially minimal and that the Ukrainian assault groups did not immediately realize their presence in the city. Subsequent clearing operations, supported by aerial reconnaissance and grenades, destroyed fortified strongpoints, including a school that housed a drone control point and an ammunition depot.

Hulyaypole is an important transportation hub and fortified area. According to Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Yevgeny Balitsky’s assessment, its capture creates conditions for further advancement in the region. However, Ukraine denies losing the city, stating that heavy street fighting continues. According to reports dated January 13, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are launching counterattacks with artillery and drones. Russian sources claim that these attacks are being repelled.

Nevertheless, the Polymarket contract for capturing Hulyaypole was finalized before December 31 with a positive outcome.

Click to see full-size image. (ISW)

Conclusion

An analysis of information from January 1 to 12, 2026 shows that the most dynamic development of events is occurring in the Pokrovsk (west of Avdiivka) and Zaporizhzhia (Prymorske–Orikhiv) areas. Here, Russian troops have achieved specific tactical successes. Prymorske has practically been taken, Sofiyevka is under control, and an offensive is underway in Rodinskoye and Orikhiv. In the Kostyantynivka area, intense urban combat continues, but the city’s complete capture remains distant. In the Kupyansk and Toretske areas, the situation remains stable, with no signs of an imminent breakthrough. Stepnohirsk is close to being under the control of Russian troops.

As of the end of December 2025, several settlements on the Polymarket prediction market closed contracts after their confirmed capture: Rovnopolie in the Zaporizhzhia region was liberated during the advance from Robotino, Seversk in the Bakhmut direction came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, and Grishino became the central point of a major breakthrough. Contracts for Hulyaypole and Svyato-Pokrovskoye closed for different reasons: Hulyaypole due to its approaching capture and Svyato-Pokrovskoye due to a lack of confirmed data on control of the area. In January, contracts for Prymorske and Sofiyevka are expected to close, as well as for Rodinskoye, if the operational situation develops according to current trends.

Our regular reports provide the information necessary to draw substantiated conclusions about the development of the situation on the front. However, it is important to remember that the dynamics of hostilities can change rapidly and that this analysis does not constitute an investment recommendation.

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