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Russia and Ukraine have completed another round of talks in Istanbul. Both sides made statements following the results of the first round of negotiations.
After the completion of the next round of negotiations, the Russian delegation finally received “a clearly formulated position and proposals (from Ukraine) that will be studied and brought to the leadership of the country,” the head of the Russian delegation Medinsky said.
Ukraine agrees to consolidate its neutral status and to refuse to deploy foreign military bases, provided that it receives security guarantees similar to the Article 5 of the NATO treaty.
A member of the Kiev delegation , Alexander Chaly, commented on the legal aspects of the security guarantee system proposed by Ukraine as follows:
These are clear legally binding guarantees of Ukraine’s security, which in their content and form should be similar to Article 5 of NATO. That is, if Ukraine is the object of any aggression, military attack or military operation, we have the right to demand immediate consultations within 3 days.
If these consultations do not lead to any diplomatic solution to the problem, then the guarantor countries should provide us with military assistance and weapons. And even, it is not excluded, to close the airspace over Ukraine.
If we manage to consolidate these key provisions, Ukraine will be in a position to actually fix its current status as a non-aligned and nuclear-free state in the form of permanent neutrality, which has historically already been fixed in our Declaration of Sovereignty of 1990.
Under such guarantees, we will not deploy foreign military bases, military contingents on our territory, and we will not join military-political alliances. Military exercises on our territory will take place with the consent of the guarantor countries.
Crucially, nothing in the future treaty will deny Ukraine’s right to join the EU. The guarantor countries enter into commitment to facilitate these processes.
Another member of the Ukrainian delegation, David Arahamia, said that Ukraine sees the countries members of the UN Security Council as guarantors of its security, some of them have already given their preliminary consent.
“Who do we see as guarantors – firstly, the countries of the UN Security Council: Great Britain, China, Russia are also included there, but we will separately discussed, Germany, Canada, Poland, Israel, Turkey,” – Arahamiya said at a briefing following the talks between Russia and Ukraine.
According to him, some of the countries have already given preliminary consent to become guarantors of security for Ukraine. In addition, it is assumed that other countries, if they want, will later be able to join this international treaty.
Briefly. Security guarantees treaty with an enhanced analogue of Article 5 of NATO. Guarantor states (USA, UK, Turkey, France, Germany etc.) legally actively involved in protecting 🇺🇦 from any aggression. Implementation through a referendum & parliaments of the guarantor states.
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) March 29, 2022
Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, a member of the Ukrainian delegation, said that during the negotiations in Istanbul, the Russian side was asked to negotiate the status of Crimea and Sevastopol for 15 years and during this time not to try to resolve the issue by military means.
In his turn, the head of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, also briefly voiced Kiev’s position and commented on some lacunae of the proposed document. Moscow’s official proposals have are yet to be proclaimed.
“We have received written proposals from the Ukrainian delegation, as I understand, agreed with the leadership of Ukraine, which are briefly as follows:
Ukraine is declared a permanently neutral state under international legal guarantees in order to implement a non-aligned, nuclear-free status. The following is a list of guarantor states guaranteeing the security of Ukraine.
These security guarantees do not apply to the territories of Crimea and Sevastopol, i.e. Ukraine refuses to seek to return Crimea and Sevastopol by military means, and declares that this is possible only through negotiations, diplomatically, etc.
… Of course, this does not correspond in any way to our position, but Ukraine has formulated its approach. …
This also does not apply to that part of Ukraine, which it calls separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
… What are these separate areas Ukraine formulates separately, and what are the territories of these separate areas Russia formulates in its own way. …
Ukraine refuses to join military alliances, to deploy foreign military bases, contingents, military exercises on the territory of Ukraine, without the consent of the guarantor states, including the Russian Federation.
For its part, the Russian Federation does not object to Ukraine’s desire to join the European Union. (These words are not the position of the Russian Federation, Medinsky only voices the document proposed by Kiev)
Further, the statuses are prescribed in some detail, what the guarantor states should do, since Ukraine becomes a neutral non-aligned state. The procedure for the entry into force of the agreement, the procedure for its temporary application, the procedure for changing legislation and legal documents in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine are prescribed.
And it is emphasized once again that the disputed issues of Crimea and Sevastopol between Russia and Ukraine are resolved only through bilateral negotiations.
Ukraine also requests the final decision to be formalized at the meeting of the heads of the states.
… On this occasion, I have already said that we are making a step towards Ukraine and we are talking about the possibility of holding a meeting of the state leaders within the framework of a meeting of Foreign Ministers when initialing the treaty. It is necessary to create the document itself for this to understand what we agreed on. After that the Foreign Ministers initialize the agreement, and the state leaders may meet four together. In this way, any remaining issues can be resolved.
These are by no means a provision of the treaty. These are the proposals of the Ukrainian side, which we consider a constructive step towards finding a compromise and which will be considered by Russia and an appropriate response will be given. Thank you.“
According to Medinsky, Russia is making two steps towards Ukraine for de-escalation. Medinsky explained that these steps relate to the political and military parts.
The interview of the head of the Russian delegation is perceived ambiguously. Having voiced Kiev’s demands, Moscow does not declare its clear position in the negotiation process, and Medinsky has not voiced the path which Russia is ready to take to end the military operation. It is surprising why the official representative, having fully voiced all the Ukrainian demands, did not voice the demands and position of the Russian Federation, allegedly making it clear that Moscow ingeneral does not exclude the possibility of their adoption, with the exception of some nuances that still need to be discussed.
The composition of the Russian delegation seems extremely strange.
The head of the delegation, Medinsky, is not a professional diplomat. Before becoming an Assistant to the President of Russia in 2020, he was the Minister of Culture. The professional career of the representative of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, Alexander Fomin, has not been connected with the command of army units or with the planning of any military operations since 1993. Since that time, he has always been involved in military-technical cooperation and in the management of defense complex campaigns.
At the same time, following the negotiations round, there was no a single statement from another high-ranking member of the delegation, a representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.
It seems that this is either the intent or the lack of professionalism of individuals influencing the Russian state policy. It is also possible that such softness is a special tactic of Russian diplomacy.
Since Moscow has not yet officially responded to the Ukrainian proposals, official comments are expected from representatives of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Kremlin.
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At the same time, on the battlefield, the Russian “step towards Ukraine” did not take long to wait.
On March 29, the Russian Defense Ministry decided to drastically reduce military activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions. This was stated by the ministry following the results of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations.
“Due to the fact that negotiations on the preparation of a treaty on the neutral and nuclear-free status of Ukraine, as well as on the provision of security guarantees to Ukraine, are moving into a practical concerns, taking into account the principles discussed during today’s meeting, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation made a decision to drastically, at times, reduce military activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions in order to increase mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations and achieving the ultimate goal – coordination and signing of the above-mentioned agreement.”
“We proceed from the fact that the relevant basic decisions will be made in Kiev and conditions should be created for further normal work,” was added.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will report in more detail on the decisions taken upon the return of the Russian delegation to Moscow.
Such a decision of the Russian Ministry of Defense is an important signal of Moscow’s readiness to make significant concessions in solving the crisis in Ukraine. Of course, this maneuver can weaken the positions of Russian forces on the front lines in Ukraine.
Apparently, Russia intends to continue the concentration of its forces in the east of Ukraine in order to suppress the enemy’s defense in the territories of the recognized Donetsk and Lugansk republics. However, the reduction of pressure in the Kiev and Chernihiv regions will also allow the transfer of AFU forces to the east.
This decision significantly reduces the position of the Russian Federation in the negotiation process as well.
Russia also made concessions by agreeing to negotiate in Turkey, which, although it has not joined the sanctions against Russia, continues to indirectly participate in military operations in Ukraine, supplying Kiev with weapons.
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Moscow’s possible consent to the Kiev’s proposals may mean the Russia’s unconditional military and diplomatic defeat.
The history of mankind has not known a single example when ensuring the security of a state carried out according to the Kiev’s scheme would lead to the creation of its real status quo.
Agreeing to the Kiev’s demands will only be a preparation for Russia’s new war not only against Ukraine, but against the entire West. This diplomatic step would be the beginning of another global conflict. The West is always betting on a coup in Russia.
By renouncing its territorial claims to Crimea and the Donbass region, Kiev is imposing a treaty, according to which NATO countries will definitely enter the war on the side of Ukraine in the next armed conflict. Judging by the case of the Minsk Agreements, Kiev has clearly demonstrated its unwillingness to comply with international agreements. Since the proposed security guarantees do not apply to the territories of Crimea and Donbass, which the parties have yet to determine, Ukraine will be able to continue its attacks on Donbass, and may launch another military operation against the population of Crimea. If Russia agrees to the proposals, in 15 years, which Kiev allocates for negotiations on the status of Crimea, and even much faster, Ukraine will have the opportunity to destabilize the situation in Crimea by supporting the pro-Ukrainian part of the population, including Crimean Tatars, given that Moscow’s “status” will be significantly damaged if it does not reach the declared aims of the military operation in Ukraine. If Russia responds to the possible aggression from Ukraine, NATO countries will be involved to “protect the security of Ukraine”.
