File image.
In the Slavyansk direction the situation has deteriorated: Ukrainian units have consolidated in the area of Dibrova and Ozernoye, complicating the position of Russian troops near Krivaya Luka and Piskunovka. In the Sumy direction Russian assault groups are advancing in the areas of Kiyanitsa, Khoten, Malaya Rybitsa and around Ulanovo. In the Kharkiv direction Russian units are increasing precision strikes against the encircled forces in the northeast of the region, have taken Kreidyanka and Shabelnoye, and have advanced near Varvarovka and Nesterne. In the Zaporozhye direction Russian troops have taken Yegorovka and are developing the offensive toward Omelnyk; the greater part of Orekhov has come under control and the Omelnyk–Preobrazhenka highway has been physically cut. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that Ukraine may render all of its available F-16 fighters unserviceable by the end of the year.
Slavyansk direction
Following the problems on the Liman direction, the situation is also deteriorating in the Slavyansk direction. Ukrainian units have managed to consolidate in the area of Dibrova and Ozernoye, which has complicated the situation for Russian units near Krivaya Luka and Piskunovka.
Ukrainian formations are attempting to attack these settlements from the north, crossing the Seversky Donets. Russian units still retain the approaches to Nikolayevka, into which small groups are entering, yet the situation here is becoming more complicated. The Ukrainian side is conducting counterattacks to prevent Russian troops from holding the exit to Nikolayevka from the direction of Rai-Aleksandrovka. The zone of Ukrainian presence is gradually expanding. Using a strongpoint west of the village, Ukrainian formations were entering its territory and are now consolidating on the outskirts.
The above is largely connected with the increased activity of Ukrainian units in the Liman direction and the transfer of additional drone operators there. This is working against Russian units, which under strikes from the Liman side will now be forced to rebuild logistics and change the pace of the advance both on Slavyansk and on Kramatorsk.
On the Seversk direction stubborn meeting engagements continue on the previous lines in Vasyutinskoye, Vasilyevskaya Pustosh, on the western approaches to Rai-Aleksandrovka and in Krivaya Luka. Pilots and drone operators are delivering constant strikes against the critical infrastructure of Kramatorsk. In the Krasny Liman direction Russian troops are holding the defence along the western bank of the Zherebets River and delivering air strikes against the rear areas and command posts of the Ukrainian side.
Sumy direction
On this sector of the front Russian units continue to advance, destroying and disrupting the logistics of the Ukrainian side. Near Kiyanitsa and Khoten assault troops are conducting small-arms fighting; there is also progress near Tolstodubovo, and heavy fighting is under way in Krasnopolye district.
Russian logistics in this direction are not currently in the best condition because of the active drone control exercised by the Ukrainian side. In Kondratovka positional fighting continues: the eastern part of the settlement is under the control of Russian units, the western part is held by Ukrainian forces, and the remainder is a grey zone. Andreyevka is under Russian control; west of the settlement a grey zone extends to the forest tract from which Ukrainian drones are launched.
Russian units of the “North” grouping continue to press Ukrainian defenses on all sectors of the advance in the Sumy region. The Ukrainian side has taken no active actions and is attempting to disrupt railway communications in the border areas. In Sumy district Russian assault troops continue to advance near Malaya Rybitsa, Kiyanitsa and Khoten. In Shostka district Russian units continue to expand the zone of control around Ulanovo.
Kharkiv direction
As a result of a precision missile strike in the area of Ivanovka in Chuhuyiv district of Kharkiv region, a deployment point of a unit of the 6th Separate Ranger Regiment of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces was destroyed.
In the Liptsy direction Russian units advanced on three sectors by 300 meters. Near Pitomnik a comprehensive strike was delivered against a large concentration of Ukrainian forces. In the Volchansk direction Russian troops were expanding the zone of control near the Russian border, advancing 500 meters on several sectors near Varvarovka. There is progress near Nesterne.
As a result of the offensive actions of Russian units the Ukrainian side has been forced to concentrate the remnants of its forces in the largest controlled villages, such as Reznikovo, Rublene and Varvarovka. Russian aviation and artillery are actively working against these concentrations.
In the Veliky Burluk direction Kreidyanka has been taken. Assault groups of Russian units are advancing near Reznikovo and Kolodeznoye. On the western flank of the Kharkiv front positional fighting is under way near Goptovka. On the eastern flank the Russian Ministry of Defense reported the capture of the village of Shabelnoye in the Reznikovo cauldron. Reports from the ground also indicate progress near the villages of Lukashovo and Nesterne.
Zaporozhye direction
In the Zaporozhye direction fighting for Orekhov and Preobrazhenka continues unabated. According to a report by the Russian Ministry of Defence, Yegorovka has been taken. From this bridgehead Russian forces plan to advance toward Omelnyk. From the direction of Chervona Krynytsia they continued to drive the Ukrainian side out of strong points toward the road linking Orekhov and Omelnyk.
On the eastern flank fighting is under way across the entire front as far as Zarnitsa and Svetlaya Dolina. According to Russian security structures, north of Orekhov the Ukrainian side has been virtually driven out of the village of Vasilkovoye. It was previously noted that the Ukrainian command was transferring reserves there, while Russian units were disrupting supply in this area.
In the southern direction, where the Orekhov grouping of the Ukrainian side is operating, the position of Ukrainian units has become noticeably more complicated. The greater part of the city is already under the control of Russian forces. Attempts to hold at least part of the settlement are resulting in constant losses for them. Fierce fighting is under way on the outskirts of Omelnyk. The Ukrainian side has to transfer reserves there that were previously sent directly to Orekhov. Supply of the city has virtually ceased. Preobrazhenka finds itself in the same position. The Omelnyk–Preobrazhenka highway has been physically cut.
Russian units are using the weather to consolidate west of Krasny Rodnik and west of Yegorovka. These positions are already regarded as part of the Russian zone of responsibility. Orekhov may become one of the results of the autumn campaign. Further on, an advance at least to the next defensive line is possible.
Conclusion
In the Slavyansk direction this is expressed in the holding of the approaches to Nikolayevka and fighting for the Seversky Donets–Donbass canal, where the Ukrainian side is attempting to consolidate. In the Sumy direction it advances through forest tracts and pressure on the defenses north of Sumy. In the Kharkiv direction in precision strikes against the encircled forces and the capture of new villages. In the Zaporozhye direction in the envelopment of Orekhov and the cutting of supply routes. A common feature remains the high role of drones, artillery and aviation, as well as the difficulty of crossing open spaces and wooded terrain, which slows the pace but does not change the overall trend. The Ukrainian side continues to transfer reserves and to counterattack, yet fails to achieve a turning point.
Ukraine may render all of its available F-16 fighters unserviceable by the end of the year, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a source. “More than half of Ukraine’s F-16s are currently grounded for maintenance, and at the current rates of use and repair Kyiv will render the remaining aircraft unserviceable by the end of this year,” the publication states. According to the newspaper, in Belgium, for example, the repair of fighters takes up to 40 weeks. As retired U.S. Air Force officer David Deptula notes, Ukraine’s inability to ensure rapid maintenance of the F-16s is turning into an air defense crisis. On 17 September the Economist reported that the F-16 and MiG-29 fighters that Ukraine uses against Russian jet-powered drones are often undergoing repair abroad.
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