The encirclement in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast is entering its final phase — and the Ukrainian formations caught inside it are running out of time.
On September 17, assault units of Russia’s 71st Guards Motorized Rifle Division drove Ukrainian border guards out of the village of Mala Volchya, approximately 24 kilometers from Volchansk. The capture tightens the Russian perimeter and closes another gap between previously seized positions. The ‘North’ grouping appears to have shifted to final encirclement operations. The units trapped inside are not marginal formations: they include elements of Ukraine’s 1st ‘Hart’ Border Brigade, 11th ‘Forpost’ Border Brigade, 48th Artillery Brigade, and the 27th National Guard Brigade. Four formations, no evacuation corridor, and a perimeter contracting settlement by settlement.
Ukrainian command is responding — but the response reveals the depth of the crisis. An artillery battalion of the 47th Separate Artillery Brigade has been redeployed from Sumy Oblast to Kharkiv to support potential relief operations. Stripping artillery from one active sector to prop up another is not a sign of strategic depth. It is a sign of its absence.
The front does not wait for one crisis to resolve before opening the next.
On the southern flank of the Slavyansk axis, Russian forces are methodically improving their position on the approaches to Oleksievo-Druzhkivka, pressing forward from the direction of Kostiantinovka. Of particular note is a push to close the pocket between Kostiantinovka and Chasov Yar, with small assault groups operating inside most settlements in that corridor simultaneously. The design is familiar: infiltrate, disrupt, and let the defense unravel from within.
In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Stepnogorsk — a gray zone for over a month following a Ukrainian push — is shifting back toward Russian control. Russian airborne units have begun recovering lost positions, while two Ukrainian territorial defense brigades committed to the offensive, the 121st and 241st, appear to have exhausted their combat potential entirely. The momentum that briefly favored Kyiv here has dissipated.
Three sectors, three deteriorating situations — and a reserve pool so shallow that fixing one risks breaking another. Ukraine is not losing this war in a single catastrophic battle. It is losing it in the way most wars are actually lost: incrementally, across too many fronts, with too little left to reverse the trend.
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