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Israeli officials are reassessing Iran’s ability to rebuild its military capabilities after the Islamic Republic resumed weapons production far faster than expected following the latest war, The Jerusalem Post reported on August 13.
Both the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Mossad officials have been surprised by the pace of Iran’s recovery, particularly its ballistic missile capabilities.
IDF experts had maintained that the scale of the strikes had set Iran’s military-industrial capabilities back by years, despite foreign media reports questioning some Israeli assessments.
However, the military is now seeing a stunningly speedy turnaround that it did not expect, not merely in one or another specific area, but in many areas, including ballistic missile, according to the Post.
The IDF had previously underestimated Iran’s ability to recover from strikes. After Israel attacked 20 critical ballistic missile and military-industrial targets in October 2024, officials estimated Iranian missile production had been delayed by at least a year. By early 2025, however, Iran had restored its high-speed production rate.
Israel then struck about 100 missile and military-industrial targets in June 2025. Iran again rebuilt production faster than expected, with its estimated arsenal growing from about 1,300 missiles in June 2025 to 2,500 by February 2026.
Finally, the IDF and the U.S. together said they achieved the goal during the roughly 40-day war in 2026. Over 2,600 missile and military-industrial targets were attacked, and both the U.S. and Israel collectively attacked Iran around 30,000 times. This was an increase of 26 times compared to 2025 and over 100 times compared to 2024.
IDF officials told the Post that every large and small part of the military industry had been shattered to pieces. Still, Iran recovered.
The lesson the military drew from each of the three rounds of attacks was not that the Islamic Republic could find shortcuts, which Israel might not anticipate, to rapidly rebuild specific weapons, but that a larger number of specific targets needed to be struck.
According to the report, top Israeli defense officials are now admitting that Iran has figured out creative ways to focus on rebuilding its missile arsenal and other weapons.
It was reported previously that Iran was successful in using bulldozers to uncover underground missile cities. But that is only restoring access to weapons which were never destroyed, only blocked.
The Post’s latest report confirmed, citing statements by senior Iranian officials, that Iran is now producing weapons again at a much faster pace than expected.
The report noted that if the Islamic Republic can return to manufacturing 100-300 missiles per month, then it can restore its missile arsenal to June 2025 levels by early to mid-2027 and might become a prohibitive threat in 2028.
Even if its pace does not get back to that point, steady progress now means that in a period of a couple of years or a few years, the existential Iranian ballistic missile threat could be back in play.
The report came as the U.S. continues to struggle with a serious shortage of interceptor missiles caused by the war on Iran.
With Iran now confirmed to be producing missiles again, both the U.S. and Israel are in a very difficult position. For comparison, Iran’s Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile costs roughly $1 million to build, and, according to the Post’s report, the Islamic Republic could be producing at least 100 similar missiles a month. Meanwhile, the Patriot PAC-3 interceptor needed to shoot one down costs about $5.3 million — and the U.S. can only build around 52 a month, even after ramping up.
The Post’s report shouldn’t come as a surprise. Iran’s allies — Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza — have all managed to build capable weapons despite scarce resources and relentless pressure. What’s actually surprising is that the U.S. and Israel didn’t expect Iran, with far greater resources at its disposal, to bounce back just as easily.
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yes iran better double down on missile production. these psychopatic jews in israel never know when to stop the only way to make them stop is to make them loose the war and inflict miliyary defeat upon them and their helpers. meanwhile we need to get rid of t rump and all the shabbosgoy pro israel politicians in our governments. and end all military and financial aid to israel for good defund israel.
its time for a solution to the jewish supremacy problem. the world has suffered enough under netanyahu alex karp and sam altman. its time america is taken back by americans for americans.
they are looking to loot the american treasury again. epstine tax. sympathy media slop will be endlessly parroted until the theft of taxpayer monies is complete