File image.
Polymarket, a predictive market, is again recording a dramatic shift in investor focus. If, at the beginning of the year, the main intrigue was Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, today, bets have shifted to Kostiantynivka, Krasnyi Lyman, and Orikhiv. Fresh frontline reports depict a rapid Russian advance in some areas and a drawn-out positional confrontation in others. By analyzing quotes and operational data, we can estimate the likelihood that key cities in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia directions will fall by the end of summer 2026. Where will the Russian army achieve a decisive breakthrough in the coming weeks, and where will the Ukrainian defense be able to hold out until autumn? Let’s take a closer look.
Kostiantynivka
In the direction of Kostiantynivka, Russian troops have achieved decisive victories, bringing the Ukrainian garrison to the brink of total defeat. Following intense street fighting, the Russian Armed Forces gained control of most of the city, splitting Ukrainian forces into isolated pockets of resistance. A “cauldron” formed in the southwestern part of the city after the Russian Armed Forces captured the Mykolaivskyi and Nakhalovka microdistricts, as well as the Ruskishne settlement on the western flank. The imminent capture of Kostiantynivka is obvious, as the city is in operational encirclement and its garrison is divided and lacks unified command. Ukrainian forces only hold separate positions on the northern outskirts and in the Dolha Balka area. However, their supply lines are severely hindered by the systematic destruction of bridges and crossings. The probability that Kostiantynivka will fall completely by the end of summer is extremely high — the city could be under the full control of the Russian Armed Forces within the coming weeks.
Click to see full-size map.
Krasnyi Lyman
The 25th Combined Arms Army broke through the Ukrainian defense line to the south of Lyman. They blocked the city from the southwest and reached the “Novatorska” platform. Assault groups advanced from the northwest, capturing streets in the Zelenyi Klyn area and breaking through to the forest belt behind the railway line. According to evening reports, the Krasnyi Lyman garrison found itself completely encircled. Its defense system ceased to function, and Russian units began clearing most of the city. Separate groups of Ukrainian forces are retreating towards Shchurove and Holubi Ozera. The high probability of the complete capture of Krasnyi Lyman in the near future is due to the successful blocking of the city from several directions and the reaching of key transport arteries. Russian units control the southeastern districts, where flags have been raised, and groups are advancing into the central and northwestern quarters. However, the Drobysheve–Stavky sector still needs to be cleared, as Ukrainian forces could threaten the flanks of the advancing troops from there.
Click to see full-size map.
Ray-Oleksandrivka
This settlement has become a key outpost on the distant approaches to Slovyansk and has been the scene of fierce fighting. Starting from the outskirts, Russian assault groups began clearing the central part of Ray-Oleksandrivka. According to available data, the Russian Armed Forces now control most of the village, though Ukrainian units remain on the western outskirts. The Russian advance from Yurkivka in small groups aims to cut the routes leading to Ray-Oleksandrivka and Orikhovatka. Clearing this area successfully would allow Russian forces to reach operational space and pose a direct threat to Sloviansk from the east. Despite their tactical successes and control over most of the settlement, it is premature to declare its complete fall. Ukrainian forces hold the western outskirts and are putting up stubborn resistance from advantageous positions. Given Ray-Oleksandrivka’s strategic importance as the gateway to Sloviansk, fighting for it will continue. However, full control over the village could be established within the coming weeks — by the end of June or early July.
Click to see full-size map.
Orikhiv
In the direction of Orikhiv, Russian troops are mounting an offensive that threatens a key Ukrainian logistics center. Following the capture of Novoselivka, the road to the west toward Yehorivka and Omelnyk opened, enabling an advance under the cover of buildings. The Ukrainian command is aware of the emerging threat of an envelopment of Mala Tokmachka, and potentially Orikhiv, from the north. Therefore, a series of mechanized counterattacks is expected. A Russian advance has also been noted from Novodanylivka and Shcherbaky towards Novoandriivka. Orikhiv remains a heavily fortified defense hub because it is a key logistics center for transferring troops to several sectors of the front. The gradual tightening of the ring around the city and the cutting of its logistical arteries indicate the possibility of capturing Orikhiv by the end of summer. After capturing Huliaipilske and advancing towards Omelnyk, Russian troops could cut off the western supply route to the Orikhiv garrison. However, Orikhiv is a powerful, well-fortified city with a strong defense, and the Ukrainian command is transferring reserves to reinforce the second and third lines of defense. The probability that Orikhiv will fall in the coming months is moderate; the city will likely not be captured until autumn 2026.
Click to see full-size map.
Stepnohirsk
The situation in the Stepnohirsk direction remains tense, with signs that Ukrainian forces are preparing to intensify operations in this sector. There has been an accumulation of Ukrainian troops, as well as attempts by small groups to infiltrate Russian positions near Stepnohirsk. Russian units maintain control over part of the northwestern sector of the settlement. The intensive use of drones by both sides, including strikes on rear areas, indicates high activity in this area. Since Stepnohirsk came under Ukrainian control in early 2026, its recapture by Russian troops is unlikely in the coming months. Aware of the strategic importance of the bridgehead, the Russian command is regrouping forces, but so far, without success. The probability of Stepnohirsk returning to Russian control by the end of summer is extremely low. This would require a radical change in the operational situation in the Zaporizhzhia area.
Click to see full-size map.
Kupyansk
In the Kupyansk direction, the situation remains tense but stable, with a gradual compression of the Ukrainian bridgehead. Russian units are tightening the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Kurylivka area and consolidating in Podoly with the help of the 6th Army’s FPV drones. Ukrainian forces are holding their positions on the right bank of the Oskil River and are using this lull to bolster their defenses. Powerful fortifications and the constant influx of Ukrainian reserves remain the key constraining factors for the Russian offensive. The probability of capturing Kupyansk by the end of summer is low. The city remains a well-fortified defense hub, and the Ukrainian command considers retaining it a priority. The Russian tactic of enveloping Kupyansk from the north could alter the operational situation, but it will require time and the concentration of significant forces. The most realistic scenario is continued positional battles resulting in the gradual attrition of the garrison. This could create the prerequisites for an assault no earlier than autumn 2026.
Click to see full-size map.
Dobropillia
In the direction of Dobropillia, the intensity of the fighting remains high, with varying degrees of success. Russian “Center” units have taken control of Novyi Donbas and Kutuzivka and are fighting to reach the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway. North of Hrishyne, Russian troops advanced about one and a half kilometers toward Dobropillia, capturing forest areas. Between Hrishyne and Rodynske, there is a “layered cake” of mixed forces, which Russian drones and artillery are methodically targeting. Ukrainian units continue to attempt to infiltrate the rear of Russian troops through forest belts. Despite their tactical successes and advancements towards Dobropillia, the city itself is not yet the target of an immediate assault. The battle is for the surrounding heights and strongholds. Dobropillia is located in the operational rear, but it will only fall after the Ukrainian salient in the Pokrovsk area is completely eliminated. The probability of capturing Dobropillia by the end of summer is moderate. Much depends on the pace of clearing the Pokrovsk agglomeration and releasing Russian reserves.
Click to see full-size map.
Conclusion
An analysis of the operational situation in eight key areas shows that the summer of 2026 will mark a period of qualitative change in the front line. The most obvious and immediate successes are expected in the Kostiantynivka and Krasnyi Lyman areas, where Russian troops have already made significant advances. Capturing these two key nodes will open the road to the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration and create the conditions for a new stage of the offensive in Donbas. The situation is more complex and ambiguous in the other sectors. In the Orikhiv and Dobropillia sectors, Russian troops are achieving tactical successes by advancing toward important logistics centers. However, the cities themselves are not immediate targets for assault. Orikhiv remains a powerful fortified area, and it will most likely fall no earlier than autumn 2026, if not winter. Dobropillia also requires the preliminary elimination of the Ukrainian salient in the Pokrovsk area. Kupyansk and Stepnohirsk are experiencing protracted positional confrontations where the initiative is constantly shifting, and a quick resolution is unlikely.
By consulting our regular reports, one can draw informed conclusions about the situation on the front lines. However, it is important to remember that combat operation dynamics can change rapidly, and this analysis is not an investment recommendation.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence
NOW hosted at southfront.press
Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.
The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation
Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com
the hottest spot will be in moscow…heheheh
how many times have you said that before? 🤡🤡🤡