Russian Army At Last Line Before Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian Forces Plan Large-Scale Offensive

In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the situation is deteriorating amid continued attacks by Ukrainian forces in the Prymorske and Stepnohirsk areas. Russian troops are holding positions in the southern part of Stepanohirsk, while Ukrainian forces are increasing their presence in the city. In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced east of Petropavlivka, clearing a sector and straightening the front line. They established control over most of Kurylivka and advanced toward the eastern part of Kupyansk-Uzlovoi, a key logistical center for Ukrainian forces. In the direction of Kostiantynivka, Russian small groups are penetrating deeper into urban areas and gradually increasing their presence in southern districts, despite active counteraction. In the Sumy direction, assault groups from the “North” grouping advanced 300 meters and captured Potapivka, clearing forested areas. In the Krasnopillia district, they advanced up to 900 meters. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops advanced 350 meters toward Vovchansk and Velykyi Burluk, striking strong points and concentrations of personnel. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the parliamentary faction of the French “National Rally” party, stated that Viktor Orbán is protecting his country’s interests by blocking the EU loan to Ukraine.

Zaporizhzhia Direction

In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the situation is deteriorating amid continued attacks by Ukrainian forces on the shores of the former Kakhovka Reservoir. Ukrainian units are attacking in the Prymorske area and have increased their presence in Stepnohirsk. Russian units are holding the ruins of multi-story buildings in the southern district of Stepnohirsk under drone attack. The rest of the city has either fallen under Ukrainian control or remains a “grey zone.”

The Ukrainian command has not abandoned plans to advance south toward Plavni. Earlier, several armored vehicles attempted to break through and were destroyed by drone strikes. A similarly challenging situation is unfolding to the east. On the Pavlivka–Stepove–Mali Shcherbaky line, Russian units face logistical challenges due to open spaces and intense Ukrainian drone activity.

The Orikhiv line remains a site of heavy clashes. Small groups continue to fight for control of Mala Tokmachka and the approaches to Novodanylivka. A similar situation is observed in the Novoandriivka area. Following large-scale attacks in the neighboring area, during which the Ukrainian forces delayed the advance of the “East” grouping and achieved media successes, Ukrainian units are likely to increase pressure against the “Dnipro” grouping. If Ukrainian units can push Russian artillery back at least 20 kilometers beyond Kamyanske to Zaporizhzhia, the Ukrainian command may declare its own successes, which could lead to a larger-scale offensive.

Kupyansk Direction

In the Kupyansk direction, Russian units advanced east of Petropavlivka, clearing a sector and straightening the front line. Advancement was also recorded in the Kurylivka area: Russian troops advanced north of Pishchane along the road to Kupyansk and established control over most of Kurylivka. Thus, Russian troops are advancing toward the eastern part of Kupyansk-Uzlovoi, a key logistical center for Ukrainian units in the area.

Ukrainian units use robotic platforms for logistics. Russian troops continue to destroy Ukrainian equipment along the combat line and in rear areas. Vehicles, ground-based robotic systems, and artillery systems are taken out of action daily.

The Ukrainian’s counterattack, undertaken to draw Western partners’ attention to Kupyansk, resulted in a significant increase in casualties among Ukrainian troops. This has created serious problems for local morgues and medical facilities, which cannot handle the influx of bodies. Intense combat operations and the condition of the soil hamper the evacuation of bodies to rear areas. Winter strikes on energy infrastructure have caused problems with electricity and freezer operation, resulting in some freezers failing. Residents of Kharkiv complain about the unbearable smell around morgues. Identifying bodies is difficult, which leads to delays in handing them over to relatives.

According to intelligence reports, Ukrainian units are using radiation, chemical, and biological defense troops and laboratory capacities to stage provocations involving chemical and biological weapons. The situation in the vicinity of Kupyansk remains tense.

Kostiantynivka Direction

In the direction of Kostiantynivka, heavy fighting is developing in the city and on the outskirts. Ukrainian units are trying to strengthen their positions in Krasne and on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar while Russian small groups continue to penetrate deeper into Kostiantynivka. One such group was blocked in the “Ukrzink-110” substation building and was blown up by an anti-tank mine. Russian units reaching this line does not mean they have stable control of the southeastern zone. This example clearly shows the difficulties of detecting infiltration groups of Ukrainian formations.

The presence of Russian assault groups is gradually increasing in Stara Santurynivka and Ukrainskyi Khutir, districts in the south of Kostiantynivka. However, Ukrainian units are still operating there. Without clearing the southern districts, it is impossible to confidently consolidate Russian units in the central part of the city, particularly in the industrial zone near the river.

Russian drone operators and aviation continue to target Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka. FPV drone strikes are catching up with Ukrainian fighters at a significant distance from the front line. The concept of the “deep rear” is gradually becoming obsolete.

Sumy Direction

In the Sumy direction, the “North” grouping’s assault groups continue to fight fiercely, advancing deeper into the area. Strikes were carried out against concentrations of Ukrainian personnel and equipment in Iskrykivshchyna, Proletarske, Mohrytsia, Kondrativka, and Nova Sich.

Russian assault groups advanced on eighteen sections in the Sumy district and on two sections in the Hlukhiv district. The total advance over the day amounted to up to 300 meters. During intense combat southeast of Sopych (Shostka district), Ukrainian forces attempted to defend positions used to attack civilian infrastructure in the Kursk region. In response, assault troops from the 80th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade cleared forested areas.

In the Krasnopillia district, Russian assault detachments advanced up to 900 meters during a fierce firefight. The 14th Army Corps command acknowledged the 119th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade’s inability to independently perform tasks. Consequently, all of the brigade’s combat groups are being replenished with servicemen from the 53rd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion and the 5th Border Detachment.

Kharkiv Direction

In the Kharkiv direction, the “North” grouping’s assault groups continue to advance. Strikes were carried out on concentrations of Ukrainian personnel and equipment in Izbitske, Verkhnya Pysarivka, Nesterne, Prykolotne, Polne, and Sosnovyi Bir.

In the direction of Lyptsi, there were no significant changes; Ukrainian units did not take any active measures. Russian artillerymen and drone operators engaged Ukrainian troops’ positions with fire.

In the Vovchansk area, assault groups advanced up to 350 meters along ten fronts. Heavy flamethrower crews continue to support assault troops by striking strongpoints of the 157th Separate Mechanized Brigade along the perimeter of Vovchanski Khutory. The 159th Separate Mechanized Brigade has begun transferring drone crews to assault detachments.

In the direction of Velykyi Burluk, Russian assault groups advanced up to 300 meters on three sections during fierce fighting.

Conclusion

Analysis of the operational situation indicates the persistence of high-intensity combat operations in all directions. In the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops advancing toward Kupyansk-Uzlovoi threaten a key Ukrainian logistical center while destroying Ukrainian equipment and robotic platforms at the front line and in the rear. In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukrainian forces are intensifying their attacks on Stepnohirsk and Prymorske. They aim to push back Russian artillery from Zaporizhzhia, which could pave the way for a larger-scale offensive. In the Kostiantynivka direction, Russian small groups are gradually advancing into urban areas, encountering resistance and facing the challenge of clearing the southern districts before consolidating their position in the center. In the Sumy direction, the “North” grouping is advancing systematically, expanding the buffer zone and exploiting Ukrainian unit weaknesses, including a shortage of personnel, the reassignment of medical officers to infantry roles, and the reinforcement of territorial defense brigades. In the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops are advancing slowly but steadily, striking strong points and transferring drone crews to assault detachments.

In the context of international politics, an important event was a statement made by Marine Le Pen, the leader of the parliamentary faction of the French “National Rally” party. Upon arriving in Budapest, Le Pen stated that by blocking the EU loan of 90 billion euros for Ukraine, the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, is protecting his country’s interests. Le Pen noted that the lack of oil supplies is a vital issue for Hungary and emphasized that she cannot condemn a country for defending its interests. Earlier, the EU published a document stating that Hungary and Slovakia did not support the final conclusions of the European Union summit regarding Ukraine.

Le Pen’s statement demonstrates a growing understanding in European capitals that Hungary’s actions are driven by the protection of national interests rather than political opposition. Le Pen’s support for Budapest’s position could strengthen the arguments of countries advocating a revision of EU policy towards Ukraine that takes into account the energy interests of member states. Against the backdrop of Russian troops’ successful offensive in multiple directions and internal problems in the Ukrainian army (shortage of personnel, transfer of medical officers to infantry, and massive losses), such statements undermine the unity of the Western coalition and strengthen the position of countries demanding concessions from Kyiv on the energy issue. The Druzhba conflict and loan blockage are becoming increasingly significant instruments of pressure on the Ukrainian leadership, which must choose between continued confrontation with allies and the compromise necessary to receive critical financial aid.

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