The ‘Emir’ Of Al-Qaeda In Arabian Peninsula Could Soon Become President Of Yemen

The Emir of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Sa’ad bin Atef al-Awlaki. Click to see full-size image.

Recent weeks saw long time allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates engaged in a surprising struggle over control of much of Yemen.

The kingdom emerged victorious from the conflict, with its allies, mainly represented by the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), defeating those of Abu Dhabi, namely the Southern Transitional Council (STC). The separatist council started the conflict early on in December by attempting to take over the territories of the defunct People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, and ended up dissolving itself with much of its leadership fleeing the country earlier this week.

Amid this conflict, the Emir [Prince] of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Sa’ad bin Atef al-Awlaki popped his head up to indirectly praise efforts against the STC and the UAE.

“Today in our Yemen, an idol from the idols of polytheism, disbelief, and misguidance has been broken, and along with it a symbol of the symbols of the hateful Masonic institutions was smashed,” al-Awlaki said in a piece released by Al-Qaeda’s Al-Malahem Media foundation on December 23, just a week before Saudi Arabia directly intervened, forcing the UAE to withdraw from Yemen.

Al-Awlaki’s joy over the end of Emirate influence in Yemen is not surprising. The UAE has for long played a key role in combating AQAP.

In fact, in the very statement Abu Dhabi announced the withdrawal of its last forces from Yemen on December 30, it warned of multiple security threats and challenges, including Al-Qaeda.

“These developments raise legitimate questions regarding how this issue and its potential repercussions have been addressed, at a time that demands the highest levels of coordination, restraint and wisdom, particularly given the prevailing security challenges and threats posed by terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda, the Houthis and the Muslim Brotherhood, within the framework of international efforts aimed at combating terrorism and extremism and fostering opportunities for de-escalation and stability,” the UAE Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The National, which is based in the UAE, also warned in a report published at the time that the withdrawal of Emirate forces will leave a vacuum that could be exploited by the terrorist group.

“Counterterrorism efforts will be weakened with the UAE out of Yemen,”Farea Al Muslimi, a Yemen expert at the Chatham House think tank, told the news outlet. “They have done a few operations in the past, some in co-ordination with the Americans, some in co-ordination with the Brits. But aside from them [the UAE], there isn’t anyone who really has done special forces operations on Al Qaeda and similar terrorist targets.”

A British defence source, with connections to the Middle East, also revealed to The National that Emirate forces played a “crucial role” in co-ordinating action against not only AQAP, but also ISIS.

“They have done a bunch of operations … going after special sleeper cells across their area of operations in Yemen,” he said.

Al-Awlaki, a long time member of AQAP’s shura council, assumed the leadership of the terrorist group after the death of its former Emir, Khalid Saeed Batarfi. His appointment was officially announced by Al-Malahem Media on March 11 of 2024.

It’s worth noting that from 2019 till the death of Batarfi, he and al-Awlaki both led conflicting sectors of AQAP. According to the United Nations, this conflict was due to Batarfi’s disliking for southern Yemeni tribes and al-Awlaki’s support for them.

Since al-Awlaki rose to power, AQAP has been undergoing a phase of repositioning and reorganization, benefiting mainly from the rift between the PLC and STC. With the latter now dissolved, al-Awlaki has an unprecedented chance to expand the influence of the terrorist group in southern Yemen.

This threat is likely very clear to Saudi Arabia, who may be seeing a great opportunity in it. Over the past year, the kingdom became one of the main backers of the government of President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Syria, who like al-Awlak was once an Emir of Al-Qaeda.

Saudi Arabia allies in Yemen, including those represented by the PLC, have been largely ineffective, with internal divisions, widespread corruption and lack of loyalty. Without the direct intervention of the kingdom, and the UAE decision to step back, they would have never won over the STC, which took most of their territories within a few days early on in December.

Looking at Syria, some in Riyadh may be inclined to believe that someone like al-Awlaki could bring the order and discipline their allies need.

Unlike Sharaa, however, al-Awlaki has not yet broken ties with al-Qaeda or attempted to present himself as a political leader in a clear manner. Still, there are signs of a shift in his rhetoric.

Al-Sharaa with US President Donald Trump and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (White House)

In June, al-Awlaki released a lengthy video message, during which he threatened U.S. figures including President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and even billionaire Elon Musk. He declared “no red lines” and called for lone-wolf attacks, “Jihad,” and assassinations on U.S. soil. The message also urged attacks on leaders in Egypt, Jordan, and Gulf states.

The response from the U.S. came in July, with the Department of State’s Rewards for Justice program increasing the bounty on him from $6 million to up to $10 million.

Interestingly, in Al-Malahem Media’s latest report from December, al-Awlaki shifted his focus towards China, threatening the country over its treatment of Uyghur Muslims. He stated that the group is “closely monitoring” Beijing’s policies and threatened to hold it accountable by attacking Chinese interests “on land and at sea”.

Click to see full-size image. (U.S. Department of State)

While this shift is minor, as the AQAP leader didn’t completely abandon his call for violence against the U.S., it shows that pressure from Washington had an effect on him.

This tactic is an exact copy of the one the U.S. followed with Sharaa from 2017 until he took over Syria in 2024, leading to his removal from terrorist lists and meeting with Trump in 2025. It is highly unlikely that Washington would attempt to imply the same approach to al-Awlaki without the participation of Saudi Arabia, the key player in Yemen. The engagement with Sharaa in Syria, for example, was done mainly through Turkey.

Another sign of attempts to whitewash al-Awlaki came from the sudden interest of Western research groups and think tanks in his character.

In an article from September titled “Sa’ad bin Atef al-Awlaki: AQAP’s Most Wanted Leader,” Jamestown Foundation -originally founded in the 1980s with help from the CIA as a platform to support Soviet defectors- directly describes the man as an “effective leader” and discusses his focus on entrenching AQAP structure -including restructuring the group, improving fighter conditions, and limiting infiltrations-, strengthening tribal ties -noting his roots in the al-Awlaki tribe in Shabwah province, which aids local support and potential regain of areas like Abyan and Shabwa-, and enhancing the group media apparatus to rival or overtake al-Qaeda core’s outlets in reach and influence.

Numerous similar articles and reports on Sharaa, known before as Abu Mohamad al-Julani, were released by Western research groups after 2017, first with the aim of inflating his sense of self worth, and later to whitewash his past links to Al-Qaeda.

Click to see full-size image. (U.S. Department of State)

Bringing a hardcore jihadists like al-Awlaki into power in Yemen may be the first step in a wider Saudi-American plan to combat the Iran-aligned Houthis (Ansar Allah).

For years, the allies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE failed to challenge the group, which emerged as a regional player after its latest campaign against Israel and the U.S. in support of the Gaza Strip.

All in all, there is no doubt that the end of UAE influence in Yemen provides AQAP with an unprecedented chance to expand. How al-Awlaki will interact with the rising influence of Saudi Arabia, and pressure from the U.S., will likely determine his future.

But considering everything that went down in Syria it should not come as a surprise to anyone if al-Awlaki emerged as the president of Yemen and met with the Saudi Crown Prince and the president of the U.S. in a few years.

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