The Geopolitical Tipping Point: A Review Of 2025

The United States’ shift from transatlantic solidarity to isolationism, Russia’s decisive successes in Ukraine, and the formation of a new balance of power in the Middle East were the defining trends of the past year. These events signaled the end of the unipolar era and the beginning of a period of intense competition among great powers and regional centers of power.

2025 will go down in history as a year of fundamental transformation of the world order. Key alliances that seemed unshakable have fractured, and conflicts that defined previous years’ agendas have entered new phases, reshaping the world’s political landscape. This review covers the main events that took place in the US, Europe, Ukraine, the Middle East, and Asia over the year.

USA

The most significant event in the United States this year was Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. The Republican victory over the Democrats signaled significant changes in domestic and foreign policy. Domestically, Trump is trying to restore the trade balance by introducing tariffs. He has created conditions for the transfer of declining industries from Europe to the US. Trump’s policies have dealt a blow to inclusiveness and representativeness, sparking a wave of protests among Democrats.

In foreign policy, Trump and his administration have shifted from confrontation with Russia to dialogue. This shift has caused a rift in the previously united Western coalition. Financial and military aid to Ukraine has virtually ceased, triggering major tactical crises on the front lines. A face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, marked the revival of direct diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Throughout the year, the US president has shown restraint and detachment toward European allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also witnessed a shift in foreign policy. A striking example of this occurred during a heated conversation at the White House. During the meeting, Vice President Jay Vance publicly criticized Zelensky for his appearance, saying it showed disrespect to the American side.

The American strategic bomber strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities were a high-profile event. The operation was intended to demonstrate the strength of the alliance with Israel, a key supporter of American interests in the Middle East. However, there has been no direct confirmation of the destruction of the targets, meaning there is a high chance that Iran’s nuclear facilities will remain intact.

If current trends continue, the rift in the Western coalition will only grow in 2026. This is reflected in the updated U.S. national security strategy. Even if the Ukrainian conflict remains unresolved, direct relations between Washington and Moscow will strengthen, bypassing European allies.

Europe

The loss of the United States as a direct and powerful ally was a heavy blow to the European Union. This weakened the influence of the “war party” and created significant divisions among EU leaders. Nevertheless, the region’s key powers—the UK, France, and Germany—continue to advocate for the continuation of the Ukrainian conflict. Now, more and more countries are expressing dissatisfaction with the current political direction. Hungary, Slovakia, and, more recently, the Czech Republic oppose the official Brussels line.

The reduction in U.S. support has forced EU leaders to seek funds to sponsor Ukraine. There were plans to confiscate $300 billion in frozen Russian assets and transfer them to Kyiv. Despite active negotiations, no consensus was reached.

The EU’s military-industrial complex is also unable to meet the Ukrainian army’s needs on its own. Therefore, Brussels is forced to purchase weapons from the U.S. at market prices, which deals a blow to the European economy and drives up inflation.

The internal situation in Europe remains stable for now, but negative trends are emerging. Germany has experienced a decline in production, as have other major regional economies. Without cheap Russian resources, the EU economy can only last a few more years on internal reserves.

Ukraine

 For the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2025 was a period of severe trials and strategic losses on the Ukrainian front. The Russian command launched large-scale offensive operations in key strategic areas, resulting in a significant shift in the line of contact. Several large cities were captured.

Moscow opened a new front in the north. In response to Ukraine’s 2024 operation in the Kursk region, Russian troops began a ground operation in the Sumy region at the start of the year. The expansion of the combat zone forced Kyiv to redeploy reserves. This significantly weakened defenses in other critical areas.

Meanwhile, the offensive in eastern Ukraine continued. After months of intense combat, Russian forces captured Seversk, Pokrovsk, and Mirnograd in December. This allowed the Russian army to consolidate control over a significant part of the Donetsk region.

In the south, after three years of stalemate, Russian troops captured Gulyaipole, a key Ukrainian defense stronghold near Zaporizhzhya. Russia’s army control over the city destabilized the entire southern flank of the Ukrainian army.

In terms of diplomacy, 2025 marked a radical shift in the West’s approach. With the arrival of the Trump administration, the U.S. shifted its policy from confrontation to direct negotiations with Moscow. This divided the Western coalition and presented European allies with the fait accompli of bilateral US-Russian agreements.

By November, negotiations focused on the U.S.’s 28-point peace plan had resulted in an agreed-upon 20-point draft. However, the key stumbling block remained Moscow’s demand for complete control over Donbass, which was categorically unacceptable to Kyiv and its European partners. Within the EU, however, the unified position began to crack. Although Berlin, Paris, and London formally supported US efforts, a group of countries led by Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic blocked the confiscation of Russian assets.

By the end of the year, the diplomatic impasse had become apparent. Russia rejected the Christmas truce proposed by the U.S., insisting on a comprehensive agreement on its own terms only. Meanwhile, the Kremlin dismissed most European initiatives as “unconstructive,” signaling its preference for engaging primarily with Washington and bypassing the divided European consensus.

Middle East

 The main trend in the Middle East this year was the active and coordinated return of leading Arab states to their role as independent centers of power. Despite their internal differences, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar presented a united front, seeking to fill the vacuum created by the United States’ inconsistent policies. A striking symbol of this shift was Arab leaders’ unanimous rejection of U.S. plans for the Gaza Strip and their adoption of a comprehensive program for the enclave’s reconstruction.

These diplomatic maneuvers occurred amid a significant shift in the regional balance of power. The Shiite “Axis of Resistance,” backed by Iran, lost its former momentum and sustained significant setbacks. Meanwhile, the US-Saudi alliance reached an unprecedented depth. In November, the U.S. granted Saudi Arabia Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status, along with agreements for large arms deliveries, including preliminary approval for the sale of F-35 fighter jets.

However, beneath the surface of these structural shifts, conflicts continued to smolder. The fragile truce in Gaza was not being observed, and tensions remained high along the Israel-Lebanon border. In Iraq, elections were held amid growing political fragmentation. Thus, 2025 in the Middle East was marked by the painful dissolution of the old security system and key players’ uncertain attempts to define future rules without external arbitration.

Asia

 Several hotspots of tension remained in Asia over the past year. The escalation between India and Pakistan took the international community by surprise. Large-scale hostilities were triggered by Islamic terrorists attacking tourists in Jammu and Kashmir, a disputed region between the two countries.

Active hostilities carried the risk of escalating into a direct confrontation between nuclear powers. After four days of fighting, authorities in both South Asian countries declared victory over the enemy, drew “red lines,” and postponed another confrontation indefinitely, to the complete satisfaction of their populations. As the territorial issue remains unresolved, local clashes between the two armies and their proxies are expected in 2026. The likelihood of a full-scale nuclear conflict remains extremely low.

The second point of contention in 2025 was Taiwan. The People’s Republic of China regularly conducted military maneuvers close to the island. Beijing continues to demonstrate its commitment to the “One China” policy, reacting sharply to any international activity by Taipei.

In turn, the U.S. sees Taiwan as a key ally in the Pacific region and agreed to supply a large package of weapons at the beginning of the year. At the end of the year, Beijing responded to this provocation by announcing sanctions against 20 American defense companies.

The likelihood of a major conflict over Taiwan remains low in 2026. This is due to China’s extreme restraint in matters involving the use of its national armed forces. The state of the U.S. economy also prevents it from entering into direct confrontation with Beijing.

In summing up the results of 2025, we can conclude that the world has finally entered an era of strategic uncertainty and redistribution of spheres of influence. The deep division within the West, caused by a shift in US foreign policy, has directly impacted the course of the war in Ukraine and the balance of power in other regions. Multipolar competition is replacing global leadership. These trends are likely to intensify in 2026, continuing to dismantle the institutions and alliances established in the previous era.

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🤮🇷🇺🏁🏴

the bigger tipping piont will be next year because jolani will capture abdi and that’s when you will see trump’s shipwreck. then there will be no one left to defend putler. iran and north korea can’t even feed their own people.

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Richie

kingdoms versus republics that’s what’s going on. and the popes king of kings.. despite rome supposedly being a republic after the point in time, now common era, not christian era, when caesar by law entitled himself to appoint his succesor, heir therefore making the caesar emperor of his empire rather than republican elected by the senate.

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Richie

we’re in that common era that’s the time. catholic kingdoms. versus all other foms of government including the khamenei, the wahhabis sultans emirs etcetera allegedly
there is only one true church as every pope will tell you.
“the pope is the moral authority for rule of law” obama. no one is above that position.

Suprcalifragilistcxpalidcios

you boys are twits, twits!

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Emanuel, do Brasil

odeio democratas, fora malditos imimigos.

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