File image.
The deadline for the implementation of the integration agreement signed by the Islamist-led Syrian Interim Government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in March is nearing the end of the year. No progress has been made yet, and both sides appear to be inching closer to a heated battle.
Despite reports of advance in talks on implementing the agreement, which is meant to integrate the SDF into the government’s civilian and military institutions, Al-Monitor revealed late in November that the process, mediated by the United States, has reached a halt.
Aldar Khalil, a senior official in the political wing of the SDF, revealed to the news outlet that there has been no communication from the government since October, accusing them of creating an “illusion of process” ahead of President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Washington visit earlier that month.
Since then, clashes between government forces and the SDF have been reported regularly across the frontline in northern and eastern Syria, from Aleppo to Raqqa and Deir Ezzor.
Both the government and its main ally, Turkey, previously hinted that a failure to implement the agreement by the year’s end could lead to military action.
Ankara views the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, more known by its acronym “PKK,” which it considers as a terrorist group.
Recent days saw an escalation against the SDF. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on December 6 claimed that the SDF has “no intention” of honoring the March agreement, and warned that Ankara will take military action if the group fails to comply by the end-of-year deadline.
Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the Doha Forum, Fidan said that the SDF was seeking to sidestep the agreement rather than move toward unification under the government.
“They should understand that the command and control should come from one place. There can be no two armies in any given country. There can only be one army, one command structure. But in local administration, they can reach different settlements and understandings,” he added.
The very next day, Syrian Information Minister Hamza Mustafa issued another warning to the SDF, hinting that the U.S. could abandon the group.
In an interview with Anadolu for the first anniversary of the fall of the Assad regime, Mustafa said the SDF has made “a major mistake through irrational approaches.”
He said SDF leader Mazloum Abdi has misread the situation and “missed historic opportunities,” emphasizing that the issue of federalism and political decentralization is completely off the table.
There is “no alternative to the March 10 agreement with the SDF,” the minister asserted, describing the agreement as an “integration solution” presented to Abdi as a way out.
Mustafa warned that Syria will face one of two scenarios if the agreement fails: either a long-term U.S. military presence in Syria, which he called impossible, or a withdrawal “in an Afghanistan-style scenario.”
On the same day, Abdi renewed his call for a “comprehensive dialogue” in order to establish a “democratic, decentralized” Syria.
“A year ago, Syria entered a new phase with the fall of the former regime, a pivotal moment we take pride in, which ended decades of tyranny and division,” he wrote on X.
Abdi congratulated “the people of Syria on this anniversary, which affirms the Syrians’ determination to build a future based on justice, stability, partnership, and the protection of the rights of all communities.”
More importantly, he underscored that “the current phase mandates on everyone a shared national responsibility and calls for a comprehensive dialogue that places the interests of Syrians above all else.”
Abdi’s remarks showed clear openness to dialogue. Still, both the government and Turkey moved towards military escalation on that day.
The government deployed drone units to Deir Ezzor. The deployment was highly-publicized. It was without a doubt meant as a threat to the SDF. From its side, the Turkish military dispatched reinforcements to the front with the group in Aleppo. Footage of the deployment was also leaked.
The Islamists dominating the government in Syria have so far shown no willingness to share power with any other side, especially minorities. This is especially clear when it comes to military institutions. A year into its establishment, the army remains fully in the hands of the same Islamists who overthrew the Assad regime.
Due to this, it is hard to imagine the government integrating the SDF. The latest remarks by Fidan and Mustafa makes this very clear.
While the SDF is open to dialogue, the government, emboldened by Turkey, may be more in favor of a military solution for this crisis.
A large-scale attack on the group’s territories in northern and eastern Syria could begin right after the end of the year. This would be the perfect timing for the government for two reasons: first the U.S. is set to lift all sanctions off Syria permanently before the end of the year and a battle before could jeopardize this; second the end of the deadline set by the agreement will provide the legal pretext for the battle.
The SDF has anywhere from 70,000 to 100,000 troops, most of whom are well-trained, highly-experienced, and well-armed. However, many of them are not in fact Kurds, but Arabs, even members of tribes which have already pledged support to Sharaa and his government.
Defections, and even betrayals are to be expected if a battle breaks out. The balance of power is largely in favor of government forces. However, the SDF has what it takes to hold up, and if it just manages to prolong the fight, the U.S. and others in the West could shift their stance which has been so far very supportive of the government.
In fact, there have been speculations, theories and predictions by many Syrian analysts that the U.S. is allowing Turkey to embolden the government against the SDF in order to drag it into a trap that would allow it impose its well on Sharaa in full, especially when it comes to federalization of the country.
Any setback against the SDF could cause more problems for the government, mainly with the Druze in al-Suwayda in the south of the country, and the Alawites on the coast.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence
NOW hosted at southfront.press
Previously, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.org.
The .org domain name had been blocked by the US (NATO) (https://southfront.press/southfront-org-blocked-by-u-s-controlled-global-internet-supervisor/) globally, outlawed and without any explanation
Back before that, from 2013 to 2015, SouthFront: Analysis and Intelligence was at southfront.com
que se matem. quanto mais jihadistas terroristas muçulmanos do governo sírio morrerem melhor, a sim a terra fica limpa desses muçulmanos.