When Morale Breaks: Inside Ukraine’s Failing War Machine

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The Russian army’s strategy is gradually bearing fruit. The Ukrainian army’s tactical crises are turning into operational ones. Four years of intense conflict are taking their toll on Ukrainian troops. They are becoming less and less motivated to fight.

Challenging a giant

High-intensity armed conflicts cannot last for decades. The examples of World Wars I and II confirm this, as one of the warring parties suffered defeat due to the depletion of necessary resources. For countries waging wars of this type, having vital reserves is critically important. This was one of the key reasons for Germany’s defeat.

Russia and Ukraine’s military capabilities are not comparable in scale. Even disregarding nuclear weapons, Kyiv’s conventional forces are significantly inferior to Moscow’s. However, besides troops, dozens of factors determine the success of a war. These include the economy, the availability of natural and industrial resources, and trade and logistics links. Although Ukraine is one of the largest countries in Europe, its resource base is tens, if not hundreds, of times smaller than Russia’s.

Following the failure of the blitzkrieg in 2022, Russia adopted a wait-and-see strategy. The calculation for a quick operation by a small group of troops was erroneous, leading to a forced wave of mobilization. Additionally, the operational situation, the state of the Ukrainian armed forces, and the mood of Ukrainian society were misjudged. All of this forced a temporary shift to strategic defense.

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Meanwhile, Ukraine had to launch a general mobilization to repel the advance of a relatively small military force of 200,000 troops. Compulsory conscription has been in effect for four years, gradually turning into forced recruitment. Throughout the four years of war, the U.S. and the E.U. have supplied the Ukrainian army with weapons, military equipment, military instructors, and intelligence on a massive scale. Without these supplies, Ukraine would not have lasted two years.

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This suggests that the opposing countries are not using an equal amount of their available forces. Almost the entire Ukrainian army is on the front lines or in adjacent areas. Only border guard units guard the western border, and only Ukrainian “deterrent forces” guard the Belarusian border, designed solely to hold back an attack from that direction until the main forces arrive. Some units are on rotation and are withdrawn for reorganization or rest. However, they will definitely return to the front lines afterwards.

In addition to combat operations in Ukraine, the Russian army performs a variety of tasks. Units and formations are reinforcing the state borders in Central Asia and the Far East. A new Leningrad Military District is being established near St. Petersburg and the Baltic States. Russian units are stationed in Syria, though their presence has decreased since the armed coup in the country. Military advisors and private military companies operate in Africa, causing France to lose control of some of its former colonies. Several Russian divisions have been deployed in countries of the former USSR.

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Almost All Quiet on the Eastern Front

Four years into the conflict, Ukraine has failed to defeat Russia despite Western support. Returning to the 1991 borders remains unattainable as well. In order to maintain high morale in the army, resounding victories, the defeat of the enemy, and the achievement of set goals are necessary. The idea that Russian troops have been held at bay at one of the defense lines is merely a consolation.

The situation in Ukraine is starting to resemble Germany in 1917 and 1944. The army can’t achieve any significant victories, but it hasn’t been completely defeated yet. It is impossible to carry out a large-scale offensive that would boost the soldiers’ morale. FPV drones have completely negated the effectiveness of large concentrations of people and armored vehicles. These drones are analogous to the mass appearance of machine guns in World War I, which forever changed the nature of warfare. Machine guns drove millions of soldiers into the trenches and eliminated the effectiveness of large infantry forces.

Ukrainian destroyed military vehicles near Pokrovsk

When we look back at history, we can draw a number of analogies. For example, soldiers often remain in their positions under heavy fire for long periods of time. The enemy advances slowly but surely. There is still no miracle weapon capable of neutralizing the overwhelming advantage of machine guns or drones, depending on the era. The rear is gradually beginning to crack at the seams. A country’s human resources are depleted, and fewer reinforcements arrive at the front every year. Supplies are becoming scarcer every year. Without outside help, the economic situation threatens to become a disaster.

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Reading this, one might imagine that, whether it is 1918 or 2025, the situation remains the same. This is why it is now crucial for Kyiv to find external sources. We’re talking about using confiscated Russian assets worth $300 billion. Ukraine is trying to recruit mercenaries from developing countries by promising them good financial rewards. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is touring Europe constantly in the hope of obtaining the desperately needed weapons and equipment for the Ukrainian army.

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All of these factors seriously impact the morale of the Ukrainian army. Most of the volunteers who joined the army in 2022 for ideological reasons have likely been killed or injured. Due to forced mobilization, frontline units are receiving poorly motivated reinforcements. The program for voluntarily recruiting young people into the Ukrainian army is not helping the situation.

None of the eleven young men who signed this year’s sensational “One Million Youth Contract” remain on the front lines. Reuters tracked their fates. According to the publication, four were wounded, three are listed as missing in action, one was discharged due to illness, and two were discharged for health reasons. One committed suicide.

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Statistics on deserters indicate the deteriorating state of the Ukrainian army. From January to October of 2025, Ukraine initiated 161,461 criminal proceedings under Article 407 of the Criminal Code for unauthorized absence from military service. These figures were provided by Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office. This is four times more than during the same period last year. For comparison, an average of 5,000 cases were registered monthly in 2024, and approximately 1,500 cases were registered in 2023. In 2022, only 6,000 cases were opened under this article.

Those who are fortunate enough to survive can spend months on the front lines without rotation. This can result in severe psychological trauma, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which plagues all warring armies. This is why there is a rotation mechanism: After two to three weeks on the front lines, some soldiers are withdrawn for rest and replenishment. Otherwise, apathy sets in, and soldiers lose their combat effectiveness.

The browser history of the deceased Ukrainian soldier shows that even the military does not want to fight and is looking for information about negotiations with Russia and when the conflict will end.

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Thus, Russia’s strategy is beginning to bear fruit. According to the latest reports, the European Union has not reached a consensus on allocating frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. The U.S. has stopped large-scale deliveries of weapons. Donald Trump stated that if Kyiv refuses to engage in peace talks, intelligence information will also be withheld.

The number of deserters in the Ukrainian army increases exponentially every year. Human resources are being depleted. One striking example is the constant redeployment of the same brigades to crisis areas on the front line. Units that attempted to defend Pokrovsk and Mirnograd are now operating near Gulaypole, the most active area of the front line. Ukraine is also facing a difficult winter as Russian strikes have destroyed most of its energy infrastructure.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• The People Vs. The Draft Offices: Hunting For Men For The Front Has Become A Dangerous Job
• Harsh Mobilization in Ukraine: From Running Down Civilians to Conscripting the Homeless
• Ukraine’s Deserter Numbers Near The Size Of Its Active-Duty Army