Illustrative image. (Baykar)
Turkey is planning to arm Syria’s new military with advanced weapons, including armored vehicles, drones, artillery, missiles, and air defense systems, in the coming weeks, Bloomberg, reported on October 17, citing Turkish officials.
The officials told the news outlet that the weapons will be deployed in northern Syria to avoid any tensions with Israel in the south. They noted that this plan is part of broader understandings with Syria’s Islamist-led Interim Government to support efforts to rebuild the Syrian military.
According to Bloomberg, the Turkish shipments aim to support Syrian Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa and unify the country under his leadership.
The report also notes that Ankara fears the growing influence of the United States-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern and eastern Syria.
In addition, Bloomberg revealed that Ankara and Damascus are working on extending the Adana Agreement in order to allow the Turkish military to attack Kurdish forces 30 kilometers deep along the border. The original agreement, signed in 1998, allows for operations only within 5 kilometers.
Since first intervening in Syria in 2016, Turkey has been ignoring the agreement, operating deep in northern Syria against both ISIS and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). It’s worth noting that Ankara considers the SDF to be a branch of the PKK.
Bloomberg’s report came just a day after SDF commander-in-chief Mazloum Abdi announced that his group agreed in principle with the government on a mechanism for integration as a cohesive group into the Syrian military.
Abdi told The Associated Press that the SDF includes tens of thousands of soldiers, in addition to thousands personnel in its internal security forces, and therefore these forces cannot join the Syrian military individually.
“We are talking about a large number, tens of thousands of soldiers, as well as thousands of internal security forces,” Abdi said. “These forces cannot join the Syrian army individually, like other small factions. Rather, they will join as large military formations formed according to the rules of the Defense Ministry.”
He added the two sides have formed a committee to work with the Minister of Defense and other military officials to determine “appropriate mechanisms.”
Abdi expects that SDF members and leaders who join the national army will obtain good positions in the Ministry of Defense and military command.
Earlier this month, Abdi met with Sharaa and other senior officials and reached a “preliminary agreement” on the mechanism for integrating the SDF into the military.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan affirmed recently that Turkey was determined to “strengthen coordination and close cooperation to protect Syria’s and the region’s gains.”
Speaking to reporters after returning from the Sharm El-Sheikh Peace Summit in Egypt on October 14, Erdogan said that Turkey “does not leave Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and his friends alone,” noting that communication between the two sides is ongoing, and that his country continuously warns the SDF against engaging in wrong paths, calling on it to “support Syria’s unity and territorial integrity.”
“We hope they take a stance consistent with the goal of reaching a prosperous and unified future for Syria,” Erdogan said.
While some progress is clearly being made with the SDF, a real agreement has not been reached. By arming the Syrian military and expanding its own operations against Kurdish forces in Syria, Turkey could very much kill the understanding reached.
Moreover, Syria is yet to sign a security agreement with Israel that has been in the works for months now. Without the agreement, any attempt by Turkey to supply advanced weapons to Syria, even if they were only meant for deployment in the north of the country, could provoke a response from Israel.
Hebrew media reports from earlier this year revealed that Israel was against the deployment of any air defenses in the country.
Adding to the problem, is the issue of al-Suwayda in the southeast, where Druze fighters backed by Israel have been demanding autonomy.
All in all, the Turkish plan to arm the Syrian military could do more harm to Sharaa than good. Ankara seems to be pushing for a confrontation with the SDF, all while risking throwing Syria into an unwinnable war with Israel. In the first case, Ankara could intervene, but in the second, it will likely stand on the side, leaving Sharaa on his own as it did when Israel bombed bases where Turkish troops were set to be deployed earlier this year.
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usrael will never allow a peaceful merging of the pkk-ypg-sdf with syria since that would mean a unified syria. if turkey doesn’t want to see a syria broken up along sectarian lines then they must go in and finish off the kurdish secessionist terrorists. the druze will be easy to be dealt with later.
erdogan is a clever politician but he is a paper tiger when push comes to shove