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Written by Nuuradin Kayyo
A Formerly Great Nation that is now in the Throes
Somalia, a culturally rich and strategically located nation in the Horn of Africa, faces a growing risk of disintegration that can threaten the entire region’s stability. Its long history, and ethnic and religious homogeneity, which would be the envy of Africa, have paradoxically not helped it to cultivate a strong unified state.
Similarly, its long coastline touching strategic trade routes in the Gulf of Eden and the Indian Ocean has not been developed to boost its economy, forming yet another paradox. The country has remained plagued by internal conflicts and foreign interference. For instance, Somalia suffered from the US military meddling beginning from the early 1990s (famous for the disastrous Battle for Mogadishu), and this meddling has continued to date. While facing underdevelopment and internal divisions, Somalia, as a federal system, faces the risk of collapse as its integral entities such as Somaliland, Puntland, and Jubaland press on seeking increasing levels of autonomy or independence.
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Also, the Al-Shabaab terror group, which recently captured the strategic town of Mahaas in central Somalia in July 2025, further weakens the federal government while increasing engagement between Kenya and Jubaland which can undermine the federal unit. Notably, the threat presented by Al-Shabaab has led Kenya to form a security alliance with Jubaland, which may encourage the latter region, which also has marginalized ethic Bantus to pursue a secessionist Path, a prospect that can put Kenya and Somalia on collision paths and endanger the region’s security.
This paper looks into the challenges facing Somalia as a federal system, paying particular attention to Somaliland, Puntland, and Jubaland that are progressively growing away from Mogadishu, the Al-Shabaab terror group, and Kenya’s concerns.
Somaliland and the Federal Government of Somalia: Which should join the other?
Somaliland presents the most important threat to Somalia’s federal government for many reasons, chief among them being that it had an internal governance system before joining the “greater Somalia” after gaining independence in June 1960. Also, this region has successfully operated as an independent state and displayed a high level of stability. It has successfully held elections, maintained peace, and supported economic growth even while modest. However, the central government in Mogadishu has, for decades, failed to achieve what Somaliland has. The latter’s existence and stability present a challenge to the federal government, which has been historically unstable. Also, it presents the rest of Somalis with a model of a stable state, while providing a contrast to the federal government’s failure.
Somaliland voluntarily and unilaterally joined the union in 1960, after its parliament developed the Act of Union with southern Somalia, which shows how the territory had well-developed internal governance. This territory was formerly controlled by the British colonialists, and it decided to unite with the territory previously under the Italian control, as both had Somali-speaking populations to form a Centralized government of Somalia.
Later, in 1991, when the centralized Somalia government collapsed under the weight of corruption and repression of the military dictator, Siad Barre, the Somaliland government reasserted its power by declaring independence, which also worked to prevent the collapse that was experienced in the rest of Somalia. The remaining part underwent multilayered conflicts over decades, which was surprising because Somalia has been one of the few African countries that is not divided into tribes and ethnicities, which is generally seen as the cause of conflicts.
Some African scholars had argued that the lack of ethnic identities in countries would provide an opportunity to develop a unified state based on pursuing the well-being of all, but the reality in Somalia has disproved such a view. The country is divided into clans, sub-clans, and Islamic factions which causes endless conflicts and such clashes have further alienated Somaliland. The government’s attempted to accommodate divisions between different regions by introducing a federal system in 2012 continues to fail as Somaliland, has continued seeking international recognition. It has also entered into bilateral agreements, for instance, with Ethiopia in 2024, which nearly sparked a conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia.
Puntland on a Tight Rope: Balancing between Autonomy and Independence
Puntland, an administrative unit in the North East, has advocated for federalism for decades but its leaders’ position may be shifting. Multiple events have made the region appear as if testing Mogadishu’s authority. Politicians from this unit have been seen dealing directly with parties in other countries. For instance, in 2011, the administration was found to have entered into a security Agreement with a security firm named Saracen, linked to the founder of Blackwater, an American mercenary firm, to train security personnel to fight piracy. This agreement was done against the federal government and included secret clauses for Saracen to go after rebel leaders in southern Somalia, outside of Puntland. This step reflected the region trying to act as an independent state in a move that was most likely approved by the US, which has had close relations with Blackwater and its founder, Eric Prince.
This regional administration later abandoned this agreement. However, it is possible that secret agreements between Puntland and mercenary firms or other governments have continued to be made. Still in 2011, it entered into oil exploration agreements with Canadian Africa Oil Corp and US Range Resources for oil exploration in Dharoor and Nugaal valleys, agreements that were extended to 2012. A recent instance when the Puntland administration dealt directly with foreign parties was when it signed a trade and security deal with the Somali region of Ethiopia in 2025, which also focused on cooperation in law enforcement, especially coordination in apprehending criminals and smugglers. While such effort may not have carried a serious secessionist tendency as it entailed regions within countries, it is enough to raise alarms and may be a cover for deeper plans that can undermine the federal government in Mogadishu.
Notably, Somalia accused Ethiopia of providing illegal arms shipments to Puntland in 2024, which suggests that the Somali region of Ethiopia may have been working on behalf of its country while dealing with Puntland. Somalia’s concern should not be dismissed when considering the backdrop that Ethiopia was getting into a shipping deal with Somaliland in the same year. In summary, either Puntland may be pursuing independence in the path of Somaliland, or the federal government can be justified in having such suspicions, since Ethiopia has many reasons to try carving out this region to weaken Somalia and strengthen its position for a chance to have a seaport. Such possibilities are likely to cause a conflict that can destabilize the region.
One undeniable reality being observed is that the leadership in Puntland is being attracted by the trappings of political power, a reality also seen in Jubaland, which can accelerate their tendency towards secession. The head of Puntland was reportedly seen travelling in a large military convoy, trappings of power that may lead some to move towards separatism. Strong indicators show that Puntland is continuously moving away from Mogadishu.
Jubaland: Hunger for Power, Ethnic Competition and Kenya
The most rapidly evolving challenge that the federal government of Somalia faces is in the southern region of Jubaland. It should be remembered that a state named Azania was declared over this region in 2011 by Mohamed Abdi Mohamed. This state was declared in Kenya, which supported the idea of an allied state to act as a buffer against the Al-Shabaab threat. While the state was shunned in Juba land, it points to a possibility of this eventuality in future, even while the Jubaland administration has steered toward increased autonomy.
While some may have protested Kenya’s allowing this secessionist state to be declared within its borders, it should also be noted that Kenya had supported the formation of the central government, a precursor to the current federal government. It also facilitated the election and hosted the president of Somalia in 2004. This shows how Kenya provides an opportunity for Somalians to conduct political activities in Nairobi, which raises the stakes that some in both Somalia and Kenya may use the latter’s resources to advance secession.
Jubaland is the most fertile region and has a high percentage of the Somali Bantu population that had been brought as slaves in the past centuries. Somali Bantus have been traditionally marginalized by Ethnic Somalis, which has made some to desire autonomy. Others have faced violence and displacement by previous governments or during many wars that Somalia has experienced.
Another factor that drives secessionist views in Jubaland is the Ogaden sub-clan, which has influence in both Jubaland and in the Kenyan government. Powerful members of this sub-clan in Kenya’s political and security infrastructure have been meddling in the politics of Jubaland. For instance, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary Adan Duale, is believed to have direct influence in the power politics of Jubaland and is linked to the region’s president, Ahmed Madobe.
Other sources have stated that powerful personalities in the security apparatus, including former army Major Yusuf of Haji and his son Noordin Haji, who now heads the national intelligence service, have also been using Kenya’s state apparatus to create a country dominated by the Ogaden Sub-clan in Southern Somalia. Madobe, understanding the powerful forces behind him, may become more brazen in steering his region further away from the federal government. Meanwhile, the federal government, which has been grappling with corruption, incompetence, and the Al-Shabaab threat has appeared weak to populations and the government of Jubaland, who seek a better future.
The waning power of the federal government of Somalia has led to actions such as attempts to intervene in the last Jubaland elections of November 2024, in which Madobe participated and won, while Mogadishu declined to recognize the election. The defiant Madobe maintained that he was duly elected, which led to a breakdown in relations between both sides. This disagreement led the federal government to issue an arrest warrant for Madobe, while the Jubaland government issued the same for the president of Somalia, which escalated to both sides cutting ties and hence minimizing the chance for dialogue and reconciliation.
Both sides have resorted to armed conflicts, including over the strategic town of Bulahawa, in which Jubaland troops were defeated and escaped to the Kenyan town of Mandera in August 2025. This reality has angered some Kenyan politicians who have demanded that the fighters be evicted, while the Kenyan government has denied the presence of such forces, maintaining that only refugees crossed into its territory.
With such developments, the danger of a clash between Kenyan and Somalia federal forces increases, which can have adverse implications on the entire region. Kenyan security forces have had a long-term security partnership with Jubaland due to the threat of al-Shabaab, which increases the threat of misunderstanding and conflict between Nairobi and Mogadishu. The resurgent al-Shabaab, including the capture of Mahaas town in central Somalia is likely to intensify this cooperation and further anger the federal government in Mogadishu.
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they probably just need some megatons and then they won’t interfere with the cargo boats anymore.
all to rectify all african countries and nations, get rid of american africom, people can and will live in harmony!
enslavement of somalia is a very ignored in the media sphere. it has oil uranium, iron ore, tin, gypsum, bauxite, copper, salt and natural gas . mostly, it has geographical position on oil shipping routes
i met a somalian refugee who lived in a us run camp. he stated worms were growing inside his feet as a boy when he and his family were there. a result of cia led regime change / control operations. the trick they use is to create and supply opposing warlords to oppose peaceful unity . some credit must go to international monetary fund and world bank operations.
somalia is now in germany and northern europe. just come and see, if you don’t believe.
same goes for syria, morocco, tunisia, egypt etc.
and the reason why crime.and grape rates are on the rise. most of these supposedly refugees are criminals from 3rd world african prisons that are dumped in our countries. and they only come here because the jews want them to grape and m urder us by the millions. they want these military aged men enemy combatants to be as violent as they can get.
you see things in africa barely function. we should stop importing their problems to our countries and let them fix their own problems instead of creating new ones.
the jews want to use these africans to destroy our countries. as they have destroyed theirs in africa. meanwhile jews play off african ethnic groups against one and another and loot and steal all the natural resources the gold and diamonds all go to israel and rich wall street jews and the soroses of this world.
all these immigration ngos that empty these 3rd world prisons into our borders are run by jews who deliberately want to destroy us through chaos and ethnic warfare like they did in syria and lybia and lebanon.