Washington Exploiting Dalai Lama’s Succession: Religion Meets Geopolitics In India-China Relations

Washington Exploiting Dalai Lama’s Succession: Religion Meets Geopolitics In India-China Relations

Click to see the full-size image

Written by Uriel Araujo, Anthropology PhD, is a social scientist specializing in ethnic and religious conflicts, with extensive research on geopolitical dynamics and cultural interactions

The interplay of religion and geopolitics has long shaped global alliances and rivalries, and few issues exemplify this dynamic as starkly as the question of the Dalai Lama’s succession. At 90 years old, the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, remains a towering figure in global spirituality and a political symbol for those who champion Tibetan autonomy. India’s minority affairs minister has recently asserted that only the Dalai Lama can decide his successor, prompting a sharp rebuke from Beijing, which has concerns about the process.

One must keep in mind that China sees the spiritual leader as a separatist figure, although he claims to advocate for autonomy only. As South Asia specialist Michael Kugelman points out, despite ongoing progress in bilateral ties, including a border patrolling deal (troops had withdrawn from the Indian-Chinese disputed area in 2022 after the 2020–2021confrontations) and resumed flights, China’s sensitivity over Tibet and India’s support for the Dalai Lama could undo this détente. India’s official silence on the succession, coupled with actions like allowing US congressional visits to the Dalai Lama (exiled in India since 1959), risks being seen by China as interference pure and simple. This could potentially lead to new border incidents, thus straining the pragmatic cooperation seen in trade and multilateral forums like BRICS.

The reasoning here is simple enough: the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh borders Tibet and is claimed by China as “South Tibet.”, thus being a ethno-religious and territorial pressure cooker. The presence of the Tibetan government-in-exile and the Dalai Lama in Dharamshala, India, makes Beijing extremely sensitive. If China perceives India as using the Dalai Lama issue to gain leverage somehow, the border becomes the most immediate pressure point for retaliation or signaling.

It is true that India and China, despite historical rivalries and border disputes, have, demonstrated a capacity to manage tensions and collaborate on global platforms. The BRICS framework, encompassing Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has been a cornerstone of such cooperation, fostering economic and strategic alignment in the emerging multipolar world.

From joint initiatives on climate change to advocating for reforms in global financial institutions, the two Asian giants have often found common ground in the last few years, even as they compete for regional influence. The Line of Actual Control (LAC) disputes, such as the aforementioned 2020 Galwan Valley clash, have certainly strained ties, yet both nations have pursued de-escalation through diplomatic channels, reflecting a mutual interest in stability.

The matter of the Dalai Lama’s succession however threatens to disrupt this delicate balance, for this religious issue can be turned into a geopolitical flashpoint. India has hosted the leader and his Tibetan government-in-exile in Dharamshala, a decision that has long irritated China. The succession is a spiritual enough matter, involving reincarnation, certain “signs” and proper rituals. The matter of who “controls” that process, in the earthly realm, strikes at the heart of competing national interests. The Dalai Lama has suggested that his successor could “appear” outside Tibet, possibly in India, or in the “free world”, while emphasizing that the process should align with Tibetan Buddhist traditions.

China, however, insists that it alone has the authority to endorse the reincarnation, citing historical precedents and its control over Tibetan territory, seen as part of the One-China. This divergence sets the stage for a potential crisis, as any Indian involvement in the succession could be perceived by Beijing as interference in its sovereignty. For the Indian authorities in New Delhi, supporting the Dalai Lama’s wishes reinforces its role as a defender of religious freedom and a counterweight to China’s regional dominance. Yet, this stance risks escalating tensions with their counterparts in Beijing, which could retaliate through economic measures, or increased support for Pakistan, India’s perennial adversary. The India-Pakistan conflict, already a Eurasian flashpoint, as I’ve argued, complicates New Delhi’s calculations

Washington in turn has a vested interest in amplifying the priest’s succession to further drive a wedge between India and China. Washington’s historical involvement in Tibetan affairs, notably through the CIA’s 1950-1970s “Tibetan program” supporting the Dalai Lama is well known: it included paramilitary and propaganda operations against Beijing, having India as a key partner. Recent American actions, such as the bipartisan resolution honoring the Tibetan leader’s 90th birthday and calls to support his succession plan, signal continued interest in using Tibet as a pressure point.

Experts affiliated with the Atlantic Council (which has considerable engagement with the US Congress in Washington), such as  Peter Arvo, have argued that backing the Dalai Lama’s succession aligns with the American advocacy for religious freedom. Incidentally, it also serves a broader anti-China agenda, part of a campaign against BRICS cohesion.

Washington is no stranger to meddling (or trying to meddle) into religious matters when geopolitically relevant, as seen in the matter of Papal elections and the issue of the Orthodox Church in Ukraine.

However, this approach risks backfiring by complicating India’s strategic calculus. New Delhi values its autonomy and has resisted being fully subsumed into a US-led alliance, as materialized in its continued participation in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation while also being a QUAD member; continued Defense Cooperation with Russia  being yet another sign of that.

A joint mechanism to address the reincarnation issue, perhaps involving neutral Buddhist institutions, could defuse tensions while respecting Tibetan traditions. Be as it may, both Asian nations should resist external pressures, particularly from Washington, which seeks to exploit the situation for its own ends. For India, maintaining strategic autonomy is paramount, balancing its Western partnerships with its commitments to BRICS, and Eurasian stability. The Dalai Lama’s succession is a test of whether New Delhi and Beijing can navigate the intersection of religion and geopolitics without succumbing to external manipulation. The stakes extend beyond bilateral ties.


MORE ON THE TOPIC:

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
7 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Spiderman

chinese and russia are scum governs
the 2 majors sheep flocks on world
the yes men all together

hash
hashed
Moshe Dayan

the sheep in the west are governed by the grand lodges of paris, london and dc who are a luci fer ian cult of death.

Annon

rubbish they are governed by the rule of law which is the pope’s moral authority .the lodges are law abiding .

Last edited 2 hours ago by Annon
he uses many names

found the indian

Annon

what a load of anti american rubbish .blatant too .
obviously total wef protagonist.

hash
hashed
Annon

they’ve totally succumbed already brics is from the dutch royals and as pope francis said ,”the man who really runs the vatican comes bringing flowers “.and as you know they get their flowers delivered from holland .and as you know brazil is brics

Annon

and as anyone knows brazil is spain’s and the vatican’s, russia is the wild card tjey want entrapped , india is king charles , china is the jesuits ,and south africa is charles .
but just keep peddling your pc msm rhetorics

Last edited 2 hours ago by Annon