Failure Of Zelensky’s Plan. US And Russia Launch Negotiation Process

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“The ball is now in Russia’s court.” Such statements were heard from Kiev, London, Paris, and Brussels throughout the week following the talks between the American and Ukrainian delegations in Jeddah. Vladimir Zelensky agreed to Washington’s demand for a comprehensive thirty-day ceasefire. In response, Moscow demanded that the terms of a possible ceasefire be specified. Russian leader Vladimir Putin addressed a number of issues that need to be resolved. Will arms deliveries to the AFU continue during the ceasefire? Will forced mobilization into the Ukrainian army continue? How will the ceasefire be monitored? Where are the solid guarantees that the ceasefire will not be a respite for Kiev, but a prerequisite for a final peace agreement with recognition of the four regions as Russian territories?

In Zelensky’s administration, such a reaction from Putin caused a burst of optimism. According to the Ukrainian authorities, Russia responded to Donald Trump’s “ultimatum” with a de facto refusal. However, as it turned out, the White House did not issue an ultimatum to the Kremlin. The United States intends to achieve peace in Ukraine, and for this purpose the Americans do not rule out a long process of negotiations with the Russians. The United States cannot talk to Russia in the same way it talked to Vladimir Zelensky’s regime. Both the Russians and the Americans are aware of their strength and capabilities. Vladimir Putin diplomatically and elegantly turned the conversation to practical matters. The two presidents do not disagree on the essence of the problem – both politicians want peace. In this configuration, Zelensky does not want a peaceful solution. His task is to drive a wedge between Putin and Trump, but he clearly lacks the strength and authority to do so.

On March 18, 2025, the Russian and American leaders had a telephone conversation. The call lasted 2.5 hours and, according to the parties, was very productive. The deliberately respectful rhetoric is striking. The Russian president is trying to make important symbolic concessions that Donald Trump could use in the internal political struggle with the Democrats. For example, Putin has promised to hand over 23 seriously wounded AFU soldiers to Ukraine as a goodwill gesture. There are also plans for a 175-for-175 prisoner exchange. The supreme commander-in-chief of the Russian army promised his American counterpart to spare the lives of Ukrainian servicemen who have been or will be captured on the territory of the Kursk region.

As conditions for a 30-day ceasefire, the Kremlin has demanded the cessation of military supplies and intelligence information to Ukraine, the suspension of barbaric mobilization, and the Kiev regime’s agreement to a final peace settlement with territorial concessions, non-aligned status, and respect for the rights of the Russian population. For its part, Moscow agreed to a mutual cessation of strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days.

“Also constructively, the Russian president responded to the idea expressed by Donald Trump to implement the well-known initiative on the safety of navigation in the waters of the Black Sea. It was agreed to start negotiations on further elaboration of specific details of such an arrangement,” the press release published on the Kremlin’s official website said.

Russia and the United States will set up negotiating groups to work out the details of a possible ceasefire.

It is important to note that the conversation did not focus exclusively on the Ukrainian crisis. The worst has happened for Ukraine and the European Union. Moscow and Washington began a dialogue on cooperation based on national interests, not the interests of loose military-political blocs.

“The leaders also addressed the need to halt the proliferation of strategic weapons and intend to work with others to ensure that these measures are applied as widely as possible. Both leaders agreed that a future of improved bilateral relations between the U.S. and Russia has tremendous potential. This includes major economic deals and geopolitical stability once peace is achieved,” writes the official White House website.

In fact, the level of bilateral trade is very low. Trade turnover between Russia and the United States in 2024 amounted to only $3.5 billion. To be fair, the volume of trade was very low before. In 2013 it was 27.6 billion dollars. In the same period, Russia and Turkey traded 32.7 billion dollars, although the economic potential of the Republic of Turkey and the United States is not comparable. Russia’s GDP (PPP) ranks fourth in the world. Its economy is comparable to that of Japan. At the same time, the trade turnover between America and Japan is 227.9 billion dollars. This is 65 times (!) more than the trade volume between Russia and the United States.

This situation is clearly abnormal and not in the interests of the American manufacturer. The demand for American industrial and high-tech products in the Russian Federation is enormous. The active participation of Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, in the negotiation process is no coincidence. The Kremlin is trying to make an economic case to the White House. The US has a negative trade balance with its main partners. Trade with the European Union deprives the Americans of $235.6 billion a year, with China of $295 billion, and with South Korea of $66 billion. Tariffs alone will not solve the situation. New markets are needed. Russia needs products from the real sector of the American economy.

Political obstacles to U.S.-Russian trade seem far-fetched. China’s top five trading partners include countries that are extremely unfriendly to Beijing: the United States, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam. However, this does not preclude mutually beneficial cooperation. Close economic ties between a number of Muslim countries and Israel are well known, despite heated discussions over the issue of Palestine. Moreover, America itself has a rich experience of positive economic cooperation with the Russians. In the 1920s and 1930s, the United States contributed greatly to the industrialization of the Soviet Union, despite the fact that Washington did not recognize the existence of the USSR until 1933. Even then, there were many skeptics who accused American business of “lacking patriotism” and “helping the Bolsheviks”. Just a few years later, Americans and Russians fought together against a common enemy. This historical example should not be forgotten.

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