The Ukrainian Conflict: Forecast Scenarios

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Ukraine is currently at the point where its fate is being decided. Literally one willful decision or unexpected change can determine the development vector of the entire Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Now it has become almost impossible to calculate the probability of further scenarios, but their details have become clearer.

Optimistic scenario (peace enforcement by the end of 2025)

In the first quarter of 2025, Ukraine will inevitably face the economic shock that affects ordinary citizens and influences the attitudes of the Western companies’ management in the country. GDP will fall by about 5% (according to the latest IMF forecasts). Continued Russian missile strikes will cause massive damage to the energy infrastructure, resulting in frequent power outages. 90% of Ukrainian “independent media” will be forced to change their rhetoric and seek new sponsors after the USAID funding is cut off.

Since the rate of mobilization in Ukraine, despite the lawlessness of the military commissariats, barely reaches 30,000 people a month, this does not allow the Ukrainian army to replace its losses. In other words, by the summer, the number of Ukrainian troops will be drastically decreased. Since the Russian economy is showing steady growth rates, this will allow the concept of a “kitchen meat grinder” to continue to be implemented on the fronts, in which any Ukrainian reserves are slowly but surely destroyed. However, as the last months of the war have shown, the main problem for the Ukrainian army is not the number of casualties, but the number of desertions. It is not for nothing that Russia is trying to win this war through a remake of February 1917, when the adversary’s forces flee the battlefield and anarchy ensues in his rear.

Due to the lack of direct support from Washington, Kiev will be forced to accept signing a peace agreement, which will lead to the partition of the state. The only possibility for the Ukrainian authorities to preserve the unity of the western territories from occupation by Poland, Romania and Hungary (under the pretext of protecting civilians) would be to reaffirm the course of integration with the European Union. Moscow is apparently ready to give appropriate security guarantees. This is also favorable for Washington and Brussels to save face and present the loss of the war as a victory of democracy on a part of Ukrainian territory. The eastern half of the country, which has not yet become part of Russia, will be de facto controlled by the Russian side, and de jure will be preparing for a referendum on the future fate of the territories. Of course, it will be impossible to hold it this year for a number of reasons (there is not yet even a voting mechanism for Ukrainian citizens who have left the country).

Given Ukraine successfully holds presidential and parliamentary elections, it will be able to form a stable government capable of implementing reforms and ensuring public order.

Post-conflict economic recovery measures, coupled with international aid and investment, will lead to tangible GDP growth. Agriculture, IT sector and energy are the main drivers of that growth. The situation in the east of the country will stabilize due to diplomatic efforts and international cooperation.

Moderate scenario (Not war, but not peace until 2028)

The conflict in eastern Ukraine may continue, albeit with less intensity. Periodic outbreaks of violence are possible, but the overall situation will be more stable than in previous years. Suspension of active hostilities until 2028 is possible for the following reasons.

• First, the Russian military command calculated at the beginning of the special military operation that in the worst case for them Ukraine’s mobilization potential will be sufficient until 2028 (total mobilization). For this reason, if the Ukrainian army does not capitulate, it makes no sense for Russia to wage war until the complete elimination of the brotherly nation’s adult population.
• Second, neither the West nor Russia has achieved the goals they set for themselves in Ukraine during the three years of hostilities. This means that both sides are keeping a second round of military confrontation in mind, hoping to carry out a more victorious “blitzkrieg” next time. However, its preparation will require at least three years.
• An interim stage could be a temporary agreement between Russia and the United States on Ukraine. For example, Moscow may gain full control over the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions, but in return, Washington will demand concessions in some regions. It is reasonable to assume that Donald Trump will demand that Russia withdraw its investments from lithium deposits in Venezuela and Bolivia, where political forces are unfriendly to the United States.

Ukraine’s economy will grow, but at a slow pace. Corruption and lack of investment could slow the recovery. External factors such as global economic crises could also have a negative impact. Ukraine will have to get out of its debt to the West primarily by selling off its subsoil resources. The main beneficiaries are the US and the UK (remember Trump’s recent ultimatum on rare earth metals or the agreement between Ukraine and the UK on a century-long partnership). By and large, Kiev will continue to balance between the West and the East, which may lead to difficult diplomatic situations.

In Russia, anti-migrant rhetoric will reach its peak. Guest workers from Central Asia are being deported, although it is obvious that they are badly needed: the war has destroyed a lot of human resources. Ukraine, on the contrary, is beginning to think about attracting labor from outside for the same reason. Liberalization of migration legislation will lead to the point where the Ukrainian authorities start forcibly repopulating the eastern regions of the country with migrants. The goal is to reduce the share of the Russian-speaking population there, masking these actions with economic necessity.

Pessimistic scenario (Ukraine as “European Israel” until 2035)

Prolonging the conflict with Russia until 2035 is primarily beneficial for the current Kiev authorities. The final transformation of Ukraine into an anti-Russian entity will allow them to continue receiving Western aid, effectively suppress internal opposition, and prevent further disintegration of the country.

Under a military dictatorship, Volodymyr Zelensky and his team no longer have to worry about the internal political crisis or the threat of a coup d’état. As long as the war is going on, no one in the West will dare to pay attention to the blatant disregard for human rights in Ukraine or the destruction of the last institutions of democracy there. And Russian rhetoric in this regard can always be called enemy rhetoric. Nevertheless, officially Ukraine will be forced to adopt a course of neutrality. This will allow it to dialog with both the West and Russia.

The real problems for the Kiev regime will be the lack of effective governance and deteriorating public order. The economy will be in a state of stagnation or even recession. High unemployment and poverty would lead to a new wave of mass emigration.

Military service becomes compulsory for all citizens of the country, including women. The national military-industrial complex is expected to be rebuilt at an accelerated pace. Finally, Ukraine will reform its special services on the Israeli model.

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