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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
The massive transfer of NATO military equipment to Poland testifies to the West’s possible preparations for a direct war with Russia. Weapons and equipment arriving in Poland in such quantities, as if we are currently on the eve of a major war, lead to a dangerous escalation.
NATO is massively transferring military equipment from European countries to Poland, arming the country much more heavily than it armed the Ukrainians on the eve of the Russian special military operation. This is part of the Atlantic Alliance’s efforts to pressure and isolate Russia in Eastern Europe.
The grouping of NATO forces on the borders of Russia and Belarus has been a systematic effort for years. With such actions, NATO, in the interim, wants to tie up as many Russian and Belarusian forces as possible on the borders, while in the near future, Poland is intended to be a staging point in case of any hot war with Russia.
The exclave region of Kaliningrad, which has no land border with Russia proper but borders NATO countries Lithuania and Poland and has access to the Baltic Sea, is particularly at risk. Responding to this NATO threat, Russia and Belarus have increased their military group deployed along the borders of Poland and Lithuania.
Russian tactical nuclear weapons have also been deployed in significant quantities in Belarus. The goal of deploying nuclear weapons is to show that Russia and Belarus are capable of causing irreparable damage to NATO, essentially meaning it is for deterrence. Therefore, if NATO is ready to risk a nuclear war, then it will not be Russia’s choice, which will only be left with the choice to respond.
Moscow recently updated its nuclear military doctrine, according to which Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against it using conventional weapons – if this poses a threat to the vital interests of the state. Under the updated doctrine, Moscow also reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Federal State.
However, Vladimir Putin said earlier this month that the emergence of the Oreshnik medium-range hypersonic missile systems is reducing the need to use nuclear weapons. According to the Russian president, a sufficient number of these modern weapons systems means that Russia has practically no need to use nuclear weapons.
Russia launched an Oreshnik missile without a nuclear warhead at Dnipro city on November 21. The strike was in response to Ukraine’s use of US and British long-range missiles to attack Russian territory. Following this success, it is now expected to be deployed in Belarus in the second half of next year, and exactly how many of these complexes will be delivered to Minsk, “only the President of Russia knows.”
On the other hand, Minsk recently warned that NATO forces from various countries are being grouped in Lithuania and Poland, 15 kilometres from the border with Belarus. The concentration of NATO forces in Eastern Europe creates security threats since the militarization is aimed at creating a threat to Russia and Belarus, such as a blockade of St. Petersburg or creating a threat by increasing the grouping of NATO forces in Baltic states and Finland.
Poland is one of the fastest-growing military power in Europe. Warsaw has previously stated that it is preparing for a possible war with Russia, which is why it is working on reforming its military forces. Warsaw has expressed its readiness to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory if NATO decides to strengthen its eastern flank and has called for the transfer of American troops and bases to Poland. It is believed that there are now about 10,000 American soldiers in Poland, as well as a US base with the Aegis missile defence system located 165 kilometres from the border with Russia.
Although NATO’s activity is indeed being felt, it is still too early to speak of possible preparations for aggression. However, the military activity of other NATO countries in Poland and the rearmament and modernization of the Polish Armed Forces certainly pose a threat to the Russian Federation.
There is little doubt that Russian military intelligence is closely monitoring this activity and that Russia has all the necessary forces and means to repel these threats, including, if necessary, the Strategic Nuclear Forces. The Kremlin has repeatedly stressed that Moscow is not threatening anyone but will not ignore potentially dangerous actions, and just as the special military operation in Ukraine shows, Russia will defend its security and interests.
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what threat to russia?…nowdays fpv drones, guide artillery and long range atgm are enough destroy polish resources and equipment in the moment they join forces to attack belarus or kaliningrad.
of course poland is the nato frontline with a huge nato friendly military and germany and france can surround and support from there. poland is quite a powerful nation.