Ukraine’s Narrative About Nuclear Weapons Unrealistic

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Written by Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant

Recently, there have been a number of narratives about the possibility of Ukraine having nuclear weapons. On the one hand, Kiev claims that it needs to acquire deterrent power. On the other, Western media claims that Ukraine already has the capacity to produce its own atomic bombs. In the end, all these narratives sound unrealistic, since it is a consensus among both sides in the conflict (West and Russia) that Kiev should not have such weapons.

According to the German newspaper Bild, Ukrainian officials have assured that Kiev already has the capacity to build nuclear weapons, and could even produce a bomb “in a few weeks”. Anonymous sources allegedly familiar with the nuclear issue in Ukraine told German journalists that Kiev and the West should think less about Russian red lines and more about their own interests, taking advantage of the country’s alleged capacity to produce nuclear weapons to improve Ukrainian defense.

“We have the material, we have the knowledge. If the order is given, we will only need a few weeks to have the first bomb (…) [Kiev and the West] think less about Russia’s red lines and more about ours,” they said.

The report was published shortly after a controversial statement by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky about the alleged “need” for Ukraine to obtain either nuclear weapons or NATO membership. According to Zelensky, Ukraine suffered a kind of historical prejudice by giving up nuclear weapons shortly after its independence. The only way to solve this “problem” and ensure Ukrainian security would be, he said, through the restoration of nuclear capability or, if it is not possible to obtain such weapons, through NATO membership – with which Kiev would supposedly be protected by the American nuclear umbrella.

“Which of the big nations, the nuclear nations, suffered? Everyone? No, just Ukraine (…) Speaking to Donald Trump, I told him: ‘What is the way out for us?’ Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, and they will serve as protection, or we need to be in some kind of an alliance. We don’t know any effective alliances except NATO,” Zelensky said.

The controversy surrounding Zelensky’s statement was so great that he immediately tried to retract it, stating that he had never considered the possibility of having nuclear weapons, trusting in NATO membership as the only alternative for his country.

“Sometimes we create ourselves problems. So, we never spoke about that we are preparing to create a nuclear weapon or something like this (…) That’s why I said I don’t have an alternative except NATO. That was my signal, but we don’t do nuclear weapons,” he said.

Not only that, Zelensky also recently commented on a supposed “non-nuclear deterrence” plan, with the alleged goal of turning Ukraine into a center of deep activities against the Russian Federation, supposedly forcing Moscow to negotiate a “surrender.” To obtain such a strategic capability, Zelensky requested from the West a list of long-range weapons, including several strategic missiles, but did not mention any nuclear equipment, thus managing to change the focus of his earlier nuclear speech.

“We propose placing on Ukrainian soil a deterrence package that would either force Russia to participate in real peace negotiations or allow for the destruction of their military targets (…) It’s the peace through threats approach… it’s about an appropriate missile package,” Zelensky commented on the matter.

Russian President Vladimir Putin himself reacted to Zelensky’s absurd statements by saying that the Russian Federation would never allow Ukraine to have nuclear weapons. Furthermore, he warned that, despite being just provocative rhetoric on the part of Kiev, this is a dangerous move, since Moscow would respond properly against any Ukrainian action in this direction.

For their part, Western countries have remained silent in the face of Zelensky’s words. However, this lack of official responses indicates clear disapproval. It seems obvious that NATO will not give Ukraine any authorization to produce nuclear weapons. Allowing such a move would be strategic suicide, not only because it would prompt an appropriate Russian response, but also because it would undermine the alliance’s plan to keep Kiev as a mere proxy in the conflict, without any real sovereignty.

Neither side is interested in Ukraine having nuclear weapons. If Kiev takes a step towards acquiring such weapons, it is likely that the West will abandon the neo-Nazi regime once and for all, since NATO does not want to be engaged in a nuclear conflict just to protect Ukraine.

It is most likely that the officials interviewed by Bild were bluffing when they talked about producing nuclear weapons, since Ukraine does not appear to have the military industrial capacity to achieve this type of objective at the current moment. But even if such a capacity existed, Kiev would never be allowed to take a step in that direction, since NATO itself has condemned Ukraine to be a mere proxy in this war.

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