Click to see the full-size image
Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
If he is elected in the November 5 election, Donald Trump could leave NATO allies the choice either to “accept a forced settlement favoring Russia” or the US withdrawing defence guarantees, Politico reported. The main reason for this, according to allies of the former president, is that the Ukraine war is diverting resources needed to confront Beijing and defend Taiwan.
Soon after the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, Washington and its allies in NATO increased the flow of military aid to Kiev, which has only contributed to the prolongation of the conflict, depleted Western stocks of weapons, and exposed the weakness in American and German industry.
According to Politico, Trump’s return “would divide and weaken NATO — to the point where some allies might back down from a confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and withdraw support from Ukraine.”
“However, if Trump wins in November, his advisers will likely say the Ukraine war simply needs to end in order to stop the US from being drawn in if Russia were to retaliate against NATO members supplying Ukraine,” the article added.
The author highlighted that NATO allies could potentially reject a peace deal and continue to aid Kiev, which could prompt Trump to withdraw US defence guarantees to those countries.
“Trump thinks European countries should do more to defend themselves, famously saying he’d encourage Russia to ‘do whatever the hell they want’ to NATO members that don’t pay their fair share to the alliance,” Politico wrote.
The Republican presidential candidate has repeatedly stated that if he is elected, the conflict in Ukraine would be resolved within 24 hours. Although this is unlikely, it does demonstrate that the former president is willing to quickly end the bloodshed in Ukraine, unlike the Kiev regime, which has legislated a ban on negotiations with the Kremlin.
Although it seemed almost certain that Trump would be entering the White House in January, the soft coup against Joe Biden has opened the path for Kamala Harris to challenge the Republican, and, at least according to polls, the Democrats have clawed back some of the support they had lost due to the current president’s cognitive decline.
In a Wall Street Journal poll, Harris trails Trump 47%-49%, while a HarrisX/Forbes released on July 26 found the vice president trailing Trump 45% to 47%.
Harris has successfully won back some of the voters lost, and it is now unclear who will emerge victorious from the elections. Nonetheless, due to the possibility of a Trump victory, NATO members must start preparing for a winding down of the war in Ukraine and accept the bitter reality that all of Russia’s demands will be met since it is in control of the situation on the battlefield.
It is recalled that in mid-June 2024, Putin formulated several key conditions for starting peace negotiations: Ukraine withdrawing its troops from the four new Russian territories (Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye), recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, giving up NATO membership and remaining neutral, non-aligned, and with a non-nuclear status, and dropping all sanctions against Russia.
If Trump is elected, he is likely to accept these terms so that he can quickly turn his attention to challenging China’s rise. Trump could even consider lifting sanctions on Russia so that the US and Europe can once again trade with a country that not only successfully boomeranged sanctions pain onto the West but deepened trading ties with major world and regional powers, such as China, India, and Brazil.
“Trump allies like Elbridge Colby, who is tipped as a possible national security advisor to Trump, see China as the main threat to U.S. security — not Russia — and they view Ukraine as diverting resources needed to confront China and defend Taiwan,” Politico reported.
The author says that “even if a Democrat wins the White House in November, the threat from China could well squeeze out further US funding for Ukraine anyway.” Nonetheless, the Biden administration or the Democrats in general have given no indication that they will wind down their support for Ukraine.
For Europe, a Trump victory would be disastrous as all their efforts to defeat Russia militarily and topple it economically would not only have failed but would inevitably result in a humiliating, albeit slow, reconciliation effort with Moscow. A Harris victory, too, will eventually result in more resources being turned towards China, but the fighting in Ukraine will be dragged out for much longer, leading to more death and destruction in the country.
MORE ON THE TOPIC:
the donald forgot to mention the zioni$ts biggest boogie man iran and who he will go after which will start wwiii regardless. every day i pray to god that the american people come together in solidarity to go after the real enemy (their own government) regardless of who is in power that will end their lives if it isn’t stopped soon!
too late. us is lost forever to perfidious albion. time for all good americans to emigrate and leave the jackals to the scraps in their den. it had a nice 250 year run but ended up sowing the seeds of its own destruction.
than what you are suggesting will leave the remainder which is full of narcissistic psycho/sociopaths with nuclear weapons?… leaving the country that you’ve been paying taxes to your entire life that created this mess and the casus belli lies like 911 that launched it into oblivion waiting for the rest of the world to fix it is an asinine argument for remedy! …
as bad as china, india and russia are for contributing to the american moral malaise with dual citizenship for each of them that ironically has brought america now to their borders after 3 buildings and 2 planes .. it “is” the 1 visa carrying american people that have lived in it their entire lives and ignored the lies and paid for it with their taxes who are the worst offenders and disgrace of all for not stopping it with an insurrection long before now!…
ok, you stay and go down with the ship.
hope your safe house is somewhere in the southern hemisphere… because when the worst of this party gets started you will have limited options for new friends. worst of all is trying your best to conceal the fact that you are north american (if you are).
just in case, we in south america (the real america), don’t want neither good nor bad americunts, we don’t need them at all, americunts are so vicious, sick and psychopath people, go to europe you sure fit there, europe is a lgbtp freak show nowadays
nope. i’m heading to south america, amigo. donde esté mi corazón.
i’d rather deal with drug cartels than neocon cartels any day of the week. the neocartels will get you killed a lot faster.
that donald duck quacks a lot but ends up laying lots of eggs and throwing lots of grenades too, just like he’s told.
once i get back in i’ll shiv him at the first opportunity and niki will mop up the mess.
a war against china would mean iran gets their opportunity to take out israel. given how the us political base have been bought off by the israeli lobby, i can’t see any meaningful attempt at china. the needs of israel comes first; everything else is secondary.
the idea that china and the usa would be at war is as ridiculous as if the soviet union and the usa were at war. that war would have escalated into a nuclear war in an instant. on the other hand, china has a huge army compared to the usa and the technology is based on russia’s now superior technology in aircraft, missiles and submarines. but china cannot be attacked by land, so the war would be a missile war that would quickly escalate to nuclear missiles. a completely unrealistic scenario.
you’re right, it’s an absurd idea. 99% of the american fleet off china’s shores would be sunk in a fortnight. maybe they’d decide to abuse japan like they did ukraine and lob missiles at china from tokyo.
yes, after uncle sam’s great defeat of russia, it will now take on china. onward to victory! seig heil!
i give you an update my nazi friend, (because it seems you are still living in the 50’s), there are millions of chinese in your stupid country, one order and it’s all over.
they could poison us at every takeout. no insurrection needed. it’d be over quick.
trump for peace, kamala for death and war. simple.
every yankee president has his war. o bomba started the war against russia in 2012. trump put fire on iran with the assasignation of soleimani. bush was the ignition for ww3 with 9/11,an inside job from deep state satanyahoo mbs saoudi arabia. o bomba created isis in 2012 j. mack caine, satanyahoo and mbs. never trust a yankee !!! ask the nattifs in the amerikas.
i see mike pompeo popping out of trump’s arse on the day of his election.
kamala stands for something? i thought she made all her policy decisions on her knees.
“russia legalizes bitcoin for international trade to bypass sanctions”
if this headline doesn’t “reek” of russian duplicity (and more importantly is true which it very well may not be) it would raise the single biggest answer of why russia remains in the un ignoring the safety and protection of it’s own both domestically and abroad -i have a bridge in brooklyn to sell you….
perhaps we will discover one day shortly that russia was always in on it and espouses the nwo approach… including what they knew about the 5 dancing individuals that were arrested in lower manhattan all those years ago?…
here’s hoping trump wins in november, and the eu gets humbled big time before it then self destructs.
neocon warmongers on the left and neocon warmongers on the right. such soul-infected lepers belong in leper colonies, quarantined from the public.
confront china? dear americunts, you lose already, so you are the losers in this history, use that resources to repair your shitty infrastructure or to solve your houseless situation. losers
the homeless and drugged out zombies add a certain color to the landscape. we consider it a tourist attraction.
did china declare war on america? was it declared on tik-tok? how’d i miss that.
trump allies will stab him in back at first toga party.