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Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
NATO could collapse by 2025 due to growing contradictions between the position of the US Republican Party and the interests of most European countries on the conflict in Ukraine, writes Phillips Payson O’Brien, professor of strategic studies, in an article in The Atlantic magazine.
After praising NATO as “the single most successful security grouping in modern global history,” O’Brien warns that the bloc “might collapse by 2025.”
“The cause of this collapse would be the profound difference in outlook between the Republican Party’s populist wing—which is led by Donald Trump but now clearly makes up the majority of the GOP—and the existential security concerns of much of Europe. The immediate catalyst for the collapse would be the war in Ukraine,” he wrote.
According to the author, if the Republican Party wins the US presidential election in 2024, the new administration may cease all support for Ukraine, which would ultimately divide the Atlantic Alliance, something European countries have not prepared for. If the pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian position in the Republican Party strengthens, European countries will have to do most of the work to support Kiev. In addition, the leaders of European countries need to prepare for a reality in which the US gives up on NATO and strives to repair relations with Russia.
The US previously announced a new military aid package worth $200 million for Ukraine. The Pentagon reported that the US military assistance to Kiev during Joe Biden’s tenure as US President exceeded $43.7 billion. This excessive spending on Ukraine, which is tens of billions more when accounting for humanitarian and other aid forms, is expected to be a central discussion point in the US election campaign, which will likely kick off in the winter.
It appears that the upcoming campaign will be one of the most vitriolic in recent history when considering likely Republican candidate Donald Trump is facing criminal charges, while the Republicans are now organising their impeachment against US President Joe Biden.
The imminent possibility of a political trial against Biden led the White House to assemble a “war room.” This situation emerged after several Republicans called for the opening of impeachment proceedings against the president for his financial misconduct during the Obama Administration.
Sources told NBC News that the White House counsel’s office has been preparing for months for an “aggressive response” to the Republican-led House investigations into the Bidens. In his words, the strategy in this war room is ostensibly designed to counter the potential impeachment inquiry.
“Comparing this to past impeachments isn’t apples to apples or even apples to oranges; it’s apples to elephants. Never in modern history has an impeachment been based on no evidence whatsoever,” said a White House adviser.
Another person on Biden’s team claimed that the GOP impeachment inquiry being considered is “not an evidence-based effort; it’s an election-focused effort.”
This is the expected response, though, and in typical fashion, the Democrats gloss over that the House Republicans want an investigation into the credible reports of the criminal activity by Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, as part of his foreign business dealings, with much of it to do in Ukraine. The Republicans hope the investigation will also delve into the claims that Biden engaged in bribery and corruption and abused his vice-presidential power to help enrich his son during the Obama administration.
Despite the denials by the Democrat Party insiders, the party is likely scrambling to survive the deluge of criticism they will receive for overseeing a great decline in the US economy and geopolitical influence, all for the sake of weaponising Ukraine against Russia and defending Hunter’s business interests.
As the US economy continues to decline, more isolationists are participating in mainstream discussions on Ukraine policy, especially since the utter failure of the much-lauded counteroffensive. Trump is the leading US political voice pushing to resolve the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible. This will see his popularity rise against Biden’s in the US presidential election campaign.
Putting this together when considering that Trump is also an ardent critic of NATO, unlike Biden, there is greater credence to the idea that the Atlantic Alliance could collapse by 2025, especially if the Europeans feel abandoned by the US again and actually push seriously for European autonomy, in action, and not only in words.
russian version.
we dont decide as russia and they are say.
russians hope its going back for the rest us. by tthat the peolp,le there forget thet their won filthy dirthy.
usa do have several very big problems and should at least lome some to them. the outside helpers should we party semilar to them. fx berne sanders feot i very well.
their red and bloe system is outdated. but has too many dark coners. they feel it. they have no tools for it. but they could.
can you translate that or get somebody to fix your computer programme.
he says he’s getting hives thinking about how he can’t tell russia what to do anymore.
then i think he’s talking about banning whaling for the greenlanders and stopping a return to whale oil for eu industry, because whales bloe too much red when they’re harpooned. that i agree with him on. poor whales deserve their freedom.
i keep getting the feeling that jens there brings the entire national iq average down by 5 points all by his lonesome.
it might be true. even se we make 79.000 and russia 12.000 dollars a year.
it seemes the russian bears sleep very much or sleeping at stops is rewardes with vary weekends.
so far denmark invented windpower, which is used all many palnes where is not it.
it covers 50% of the el power here today. eu has has replace oil and gas program.too. russians are told they are the only with fossils but thats only best to the price oil anf gas.
whalehunting is restrited not forbidden.tthere has to the next generations too.
i do. servicedog is dead.
ooh jee….
i smart drive car buy it slefves.
what the hell
what is the point of nato? when the warsaw pact was dismantled, surely it would have made sense to also dismantle the north atlantic treaty organisation. owing to what it was set up for. it worked, as part of a bi-polar, military defensive. then it turned into a military offensive, expanding with nuclear peace keepers in charge, with zero understanding of mad or defence.
killing children in the middle east
nato’s gotta keep the serbs in check so those illegal albanian immigrants that grabbed their land in kosovo are left free to keep supplying the camp bondsteal distribution center with drugs and whores and fresh organs.
see, some people can illegally secede and others not secede and the ones who can secede get to kill as many people as they want to keep things in order and the others can’t kill any. that’s the rules-based order for ya’.
yes, am. since 1991 hato has only been a club for freeloaders with no talents, apart from kiddyfiddling of course.
well, they’re certainly having a hard time teaching the ukrainians how to die. they say they’re too ‘risk averse’ or some such.
reminds me of the time a pal of mine back in grade school dared me to jump off a ten story building with an umbrella and called me chicken for a week just because i said ‘you first’.
i wonder if the nato guys make chicken bwaak bwaak sounds when meeting with zelensky.
in fact, that’s just what kuleba said to nato……’you first’. lol
“kiddyfiddling can be a very zesting experience” – prince andrew, 1996
the eu should ditch nato and ally with russia.
russia wanted to be part of europe, never to conquer it.
american policy under biden has driven them reluctantly towards china, which has designs on outer manchuria (vladivostok, etc.).
biden belongs in a prison for racketeering and in a war crimes prison. maybe there’s one out there that combines the two? it’d save a lot of trouble.
nato is as obsolete as g7 and g20. they’ll all limp along for a while until, like biden – they’ll take a final trip down and out.
russia is not scared of nato. otherwise why would they cover their nuclear capable bombers in tires? they don’t expect them to ever get off of the ground.